TeamList Bulldogs vs Warriors - [Round 18, 2024]

[Inruin]

Fonzie does an incredible job explaining why Webby has persisted with Tohu/SJ this season even when they've been a bit beat up, in the latest TWL podcast. Even if you're not a podcast listener I'd 100% recommend having a listen.

Short version is, we don't make the top 4 last year without Tohu/SJ (and AFB) playing the way they did. We won't make a deep run this year without them either, so he's been persisting in the hope we can get it right. TMM/Walker are good but not near the level of Tohu/SJ last year, and never will be. Unfortunately it didn't workout as he would have hoped and we're likely in a worse spot for it.

The way Fonzie explains it is so much better though.

Tohu and SJ are nowhere near their performance from last year and I can't see them getting there. Add to that it took them a fair chunk of the season to get to that level plus a fairly favourable draw in the back half of the season, as well as not beating any of the other top 4 teams. TMM/CHT/Walker combo has has 4 games together plus Webster dicking around putting walker at 12 for one game. Still won't hit the levels of SJ/Tohu from last season but we have definitely missed a trick not continuing with that combo in the storm and titans game. As a coach you can't continue to pick players based on last years form when everyone could see this years form had declined so far

 

[MrFrankWhite]

Short version is, we don't make the top 4 last year without Tohu/SJ (and AFB) playing the way they did.

Disgree and AFB isnt part of that convo

We won't make a deep run this year without them either, so he's been persisting in the hope we can get it right.

Thats 100% copium and if Webby actually thinks like that, hes fucking deluded.

 

[MrFrankWhite]

Short version is, we don't make the top 4 last year without Tohu/SJ (and AFB) playing the way they did. We won't make a deep run this year without them either, so he's been persisting in the hope we can get it right.

Pinning the entire teams futures on the two oldest blokes in the team is one of the dumbest coaching moves I've ever heard of. Especially when they are both obviously surplus to requirements this year.

 

[Dantheman]

Disgree and AFB isnt part of that convo


Thats 100% copium and if Webby actually thinks like that, hes fucking deluded.

Do you need to talk to someone bro?

 

[MrFrankWhite]

Do you need to talk to someone bro?

Is this meant to be some burn? Or some high IQ meta joke?

 

[Warriorshopeful]

It is one or the other.

Ali would be coming straight into first grade from injury - no game back in cup. It's a risk...

It seems much more logical to me to move CNK to right centre and Taine to fullback

They could always just swap Montoya and RTS too, Montoya back to centre with RTS on the wing.

 

[Dantheman]

Is this meant to be some burn? Or some high IQ meta joke?

Guilty your honour!

 

[Fonzie]

My take:

1. At the start of the year we built a game based on extending and enhancing what we did last year. We thought we had a shot at a prem doing that.
2. Last years model relied on SJ, Tohu, AFB etc. The replacements we have for these players are not like for like.
3. SJ and Tohu have been injured and struggling all year. Unfortunately it’s been chronic injuries and hard to tell whether and when they’ll come good. Maybe reduced training load will do it? Nope. Two weeks off? Reduced minutes?
4. If you give up on SJ and Tohu you are changing the game model mid season, and wasting two preseasons. This should be a last resort, and it was. unfortunately we have probably now hit that point.
5. TMM and CHT have been great but they are being overestimated by some here. They are not close to 2023 SJ and have done well off the back of middle dominance and an unpredictable change in our game model. That won’t last into the playoffs against better and better prepared teams.
6. The crop of young forwards are great, but it’s one thing to have a couple of good stints off the bench and another to do a job week in week out. If we had them playing big minutes from round 8 I’d bet some on here would be writing them off and asking us to recruit over them.
7. AFB has obviously had off field issues. That adds a layer to the above.

In short, I think that’s why we are where we are. Sure we could have given up on SJ and Tohu two months ago, but that decision would have been made on medical input we here don’t have, and I don’t think it will change where we end up on the table this year.

 

[Lance155]

My take:

1. At the start of the year we built a game based on extending and enhancing what we did last year. We thought we had a shot at a prem doing that.
2. Last years model relied on SJ, Tohu, AFB etc. The replacements we have for these players are not like for like.
3. SJ and Tohu have been injured and struggling all year. Unfortunately it’s been chronic injuries and hard to tell whether and when they’ll come good. Maybe reduced training load will do it? Nope. Two weeks off? Reduced minutes?
4. If you give up on SJ and Tohu you are changing the game model mid season, and wasting two preseasons. This should be a last resort, and it was. unfortunately we have probably now hit that point.
5. TMM and CHT have been great but they are being overestimated by some here. They are not close to 2023 SJ and have done well off the back of middle dominance and an unpredictable change in our game model. That won’t last into the playoffs against better and better prepared teams.
6. The crop of young forwards are great, but it’s one thing to have a couple of good stints off the bench and another to do a job week in week out. If we had them playing big minutes from round 8 I’d bet some on here would be writing them off and asking us to recruit over them.
7. AFB has obviously had off field issues. That adds a layer to the above.

In short, I think that’s why we are where we are. Sure we could have given up on SJ and Tohu two months ago, but that decision would have been made on medical input we here don’t have, and I don’t think it will change where we end up on the table this year.

I like the point of TMM CHT combo being overhyped and them playing off a better forward performance than SJ has had in some games. Yes they are doing a job, but I am not happy with them long term.

 

[CWC]

The model has been worked out by other big teams anyway, right from the start when Dallin was trapped in the corner against the Sharks. 2nd year syndrome. We had to evolve or bust and SJ at 34 y/o seems to be stuck with "the system" which is normal for someone close to retirement.

And I still can't get over Walker at 12 and Lussick+Pompey on the bench both with disastrous results, some serious brain snaps from the coaching staff this year

 

[CWC]

Oh regarding the point of TMM/CHT won't take us deep....TBH Webby even admitted he didn't know anything about TMM's ability until he was forced to play him with full health at 7 this year, clearly a lot of blindspot in the management this year, IMO anyway

 

[ShaunJohnson7]

I like the point of TMM CHT combo being overhyped and them playing off a better forward performance than SJ has had in some games. Yes they are doing a job, but I am not happy with them long term.

Yeah I feel like once teams scout them properly as a duo they won't be as effective. Hopefully I'm wrong though.

 

[Kav1]

Sorry Mrs Harris.

My problem is with mediocrity, I get that can be grating when you are below average.

Sorry MrFrankWhite, that is no way to refer as mediocre a leader of men and a man who gives his all to the team. His contribution to the success of the Warriors should not be denigrated in this way.

 

[Beastmode]

Sorry MrFrankWhite, that is no way to refer as mediocre a leader of men and a man who gives his all to the team. His contribution to the success of the Warriors should not be denigrated in this way.

What success are we talking about here? Because we have t had much this year. And his form has been mediocre. A great player that once was. Unfortunately it’s true. Hobbling around the field is not a good look.

I honestly think he should try to get rid of all that strapping. If he can’t. Then he should call it quits for his own personal health.

 

[Kav1]

Can Webster just bite the bullet already and chuck Taine in at 14 over Lussick. He offer's far more utility value and is the x-factor we need off the bench. Guys like Jazz and/or Walks could do just as good of a job as Lussick at hooker if Egan goes down throughout the match.

Did you not notice Freddy's contribution when replacing Wade less than 10 minutes before fulltime against the Broncos? He should get more time at the end of each half to spark things up.

 

[Inruin]

1. At the start of the year we built a game based on extending and enhancing what we did last year. We thought we had a shot at a prem doing that.

1. The wheels were falling off that plan towards the end of last season. Looks to me like we were relying on that gameplan to carry on and there was very little variation to it.

2. Last years model relied on SJ, Tohu, AFB etc. The replacements we have for these players are not like for like.

2. No they aren't like for like. You have peak SJ last season with 15 seasons of experience and it took a good chunk of the season for him to kick in to that with largely a settled lineup when he did. Tohu, obviously injured this season. The replacements have had a limited number of games together to show what they can do. Expecting them to a) play like SJ and Tohu and b) show anywhere near that level after a handful of games with a huge amount of chopping and changing in the team line ups during that period is not a fair expectation

3. SJ and Tohu have been injured and struggling all year. Unfortunately it’s been chronic injuries and hard to tell whether and when they’ll come good. Maybe reduced training load will do it? Nope. Two weeks off? Reduced minutes?

3. 4+ weeks of 'recovery' and they are straight back to where they were. if we are being honest its unlikely that Tohu is going to be any better than he is now. SJ, who knows, but also given his inconsistent season on season performances will he return to 2023 form or revert to 2022 and before?

4. If you give up on SJ and Tohu you are changing the game model mid season, and wasting two preseasons. This should be a last resort, and it was. unfortunately we have probably now hit that point.

4. I think we hit that point after the Dragons game. I also think changing for the Storm game was a mistake and said it at the time. Also, from my point of view, see point 1.

5. TMM and CHT have been great but they are being overestimated by some here. They are not close to 2023 SJ and have done well off the back of middle dominance and an unpredictable change in our game model. That won’t last into the playoffs against better and better prepared teams.

5. Over estimated, probably. But hard to argue against the results WITH inexperienced teams and players thrown together for the Panthers and Dolphins games, and looked very slick when we probably had close to our best team in an away dominant win to the Cowboys. Good to see you are talking about whether that gameplan will hold up in the playoffs, without the current TMM/CHT/Walker combo that was a write off previously. The fact we are in a position to have a chance at finals football is a huge improvement on where we were looking like finishing previously. While people are over estimating the new combo, I think plenty are underestimating and/or not giving them enough credit for what they have produced, like its been a bit lucky or something. We have dominated the stats for a vast majority of games this season and not delivered the result so I am finding it a little hard to rationalise an argument around this current combo relying on middle dominance and a changed gameplan. Also, the gameplan was previously basically developed around SJ and Tohu, expecting different players to fill in and copy that would be a mistake. It looks to me like the current plan is geared around the strengths of the new combo and isn't as unpredictable as some think. There is a structure behind it but has more variation to our play than we have seen this year, for whatever reasons, and is a bit more eyes up focused than robotic going through the motions.

6. The crop of young forwards are great, but it’s one thing to have a couple of good stints off the bench and another to do a job week in week out. If we had them playing big minutes from round 8 I’d bet some on here would be writing them off and asking us to recruit over them.

6. I completely agree with this point. I also think AW has missed an opportunity to play a number of these guys in a rotation to give them experience of the bench in first grade and then a week or two back in cup for full games. It is a lot easier to get up and compete hard for one off games than be in week on week consistently good performances. It also takes a bit of adjustment for young bodies as well. How many of our young players have been injured for periods this season and that's largely at a lower level of competition. As an aside, Ali is being talked up a lot as a first grade center and obviously has a lot of potential, but he's had two games and finished injured and out for weeks after both of those. That may just be bad luck but still shows he has a lot of developing and proving before we can consider him a lock in over more resilient players.

7. AFB has obviously had off field issues. That adds a layer to the above.

7. Yes, but we are better with him on the field IMO and only have to put up with him for less than half a season. It would be very interesting to see how much or little these actual issues are and the potential impact they have had.

Supplementary questions and comments:

8. What happened to AW's next man up philosophy? A heavy reliance on busted players in SJ and Tohu particularly in the 4 or so games leading in to the Panthers game and then a weird decision to play Walker at 12 in the Titans game. Just feels like he perhaps has either over estimated or over relied on players based on last season form rather than this seasons, and hasn't followed through with his next man up talk. There was also talk at the beginning of the season about limiting the gametime of Tohu and Egan in particular, and yes, injuries have had an impact there, but the opposite of this occurred. There were still options available IMO to allow this to happen but AW chose not to for what ever reason. And then there has been some of the bench selections and use that has been head scratching material

9. Who is in charge of what areas of our game now from a coaching stand point? Do we still have the same set up as last season this year? It appears there is a drop off in our defensive resilience - that could be down to other factors like busted players, attitudes etc and why is our play so robotic previously and who is making that call to be like that?

10. A lot of shade being given to AFB, warranted or not. How much impact has RTS had not playing to expectations at center over other players, seemingly being untouchable in the team, had? What impact has the seemingly narrow focus on our play, players from last season being able to deliver to that same level, AW seemingly not sticking to his next man up philosphy etc had on the team?

11. The more I think about it the more I cant help but think that the club in general has thought we would just roll on as we did last year. They will obviously say we didn't think that and that's fine, and maybe it hasn't been a conscious thing. I just think back to things like sacking the ground announcer for the cringe guy from Christchurch, changing the walk in music to a cliched Welcame to the Jungle as examples. Minor perhaps, shouldn't have an impact on the team. But it feels like we had an identity that was embraced last season. It doesn't feel that way this season. From those minor changes to our robotic style of play to a really evident lack of excitement or team spirit at times this season (yes I get the AFB piece but that doesn't stop the rest of them being excited for the player and team when we score)

 

[Kav1]

What success are we talking about here? Because we have t had much this year. And his form has been mediocre. A great player that once was. Unfortunately it’s true. Hobbling around the field is not a good look.

I honestly think he should try to get rid of all that strapping. If he can’t. Then he should call it quits for his own personal health.

He has served the team well as a link man for the halves. His role has changed and is now acting like another prop. I still think he offers experience even if the body is not as it was. His career is being extended by not having to play 80 minutes.

 

[Neo]

My take:

1. At the start of the year we built a game based on extending and enhancing what we did last year. We thought we had a shot at a prem doing that.
2. Last years model relied on SJ, Tohu, AFB etc. The replacements we have for these players are not like for like.
3. SJ and Tohu have been injured and struggling all year. Unfortunately it’s been chronic injuries and hard to tell whether and when they’ll come good. Maybe reduced training load will do it? Nope. Two weeks off? Reduced minutes?
4. If you give up on SJ and Tohu you are changing the game model mid season, and wasting two preseasons. This should be a last resort, and it was. unfortunately we have probably now hit that point.
5. TMM and CHT have been great but they are being overestimated by some here. They are not close to 2023 SJ and have done well off the back of middle dominance and an unpredictable change in our game model. That won’t last into the playoffs against better and better prepared teams.
6. The crop of young forwards are great, but it’s one thing to have a couple of good stints off the bench and another to do a job week in week out. If we had them playing big minutes from round 8 I’d bet some on here would be writing them off and asking us to recruit over them.
7. AFB has obviously had off field issues. That adds a layer to the above.

In short, I think that’s why we are where we are. Sure we could have given up on SJ and Tohu two months ago, but that decision would have been made on medical input we here don’t have, and I don’t think it will change where we end up on the table this year.

What did you make of the defensive structure against the broncos? I noticed that CHT was repeatedly defending out wide and allowed us to push out more efficiently.

 

[MrFrankWhite]

My take:

1. At the start of the year we built a game based on extending and enhancing what we did last year. We thought we had a shot at a prem doing that.
2. Last years model relied on SJ, Tohu, AFB etc. The replacements we have for these players are not like for like.
3. SJ and Tohu have been injured and struggling all year. Unfortunately it’s been chronic injuries and hard to tell whether and when they’ll come good. Maybe reduced training load will do it? Nope. Two weeks off? Reduced minutes?
4. If you give up on SJ and Tohu you are changing the game model mid season, and wasting two preseasons. This should be a last resort, and it was. unfortunately we have probably now hit that point.
5. TMM and CHT have been great but they are being overestimated by some here. They are not close to 2023 SJ and have done well off the back of middle dominance and an unpredictable change in our game model. That won’t last into the playoffs against better and better prepared teams.
6. The crop of young forwards are great, but it’s one thing to have a couple of good stints off the bench and another to do a job week in week out. If we had them playing big minutes from round 8 I’d bet some on here would be writing them off and asking us to recruit over them.
7. AFB has obviously had off field issues. That adds a layer to the above.

In short, I think that’s why we are where we are. Sure we could have given up on SJ and Tohu two months ago, but that decision would have been made on medical input we here don’t have, and I don’t think it will change where we end up on the table this year.

Very succinct take. Good points.

 

[Beastmode]

We lose this weekend and the season is done. I don’t want to wait until the season is done before he decides to risk making changes. I guarantee you he will make changes when the season is lost but then it’s too late.. the horse has already bolted. The fat lady has sung. Game over. Changes will be for nothing. It will mean nothing.