Agree with you on most of your points.My take:
1. At the start of the year we built a game based on extending and enhancing what we did last year. We thought we had a shot at a prem doing that.
2. Last years model relied on SJ, Tohu, AFB etc. The replacements we have for these players are not like for like.
3. SJ and Tohu have been injured and struggling all year. Unfortunately it’s been chronic injuries and hard to tell whether and when they’ll come good. Maybe reduced training load will do it? Nope. Two weeks off? Reduced minutes?
4. If you give up on SJ and Tohu you are changing the game model mid season, and wasting two preseasons. This should be a last resort, and it was. unfortunately we have probably now hit that point.
5. TMM and CHT have been great but they are being overestimated by some here. They are not close to 2023 SJ and have done well off the back of middle dominance and an unpredictable change in our game model. That won’t last into the playoffs against better and better prepared teams.
6. The crop of young forwards are great, but it’s one thing to have a couple of good stints off the bench and another to do a job week in week out. If we had them playing big minutes from round 8 I’d bet some on here would be writing them off and asking us to recruit over them.
7. AFB has obviously had off field issues. That adds a layer to the above.
In short, I think that’s why we are where we are. Sure we could have given up on SJ and Tohu two months ago, but that decision would have been made on medical input we here don’t have, and I don’t think it will change where we end up on the table this year.
I do feel that SJ albeit with injuries is way off with his confidence which defines his game. Looks very gun shy this year.