General Will we make the 8?
- Thread starter rugged
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We should take the panthers at home without half their team of best players, Manly might be very tough given it’s probably DCE’s last game there and we might rest players
If we play professionally we should win all 7 against bottom 8 teams, as well as take the panthers B team then it will be 8-3 which means Storm have to do 10:2 to overtake us with their incredible PD, if we beat the broncos (or dogs) then we’re basically 9:2 and they have to do 11:1 which means a couple of losses they are done, we’d be 99% top 2 locked in I believe
I say this because 2023 showed Webby’s more a Panthers premiership type coach that clinically win games they should win instead of doing a yo-yo like the sharks
Panthers are 5 games behind us with 11 games left so if we do 7-4 or better they can’t catch us even if they win 11-0.
I think we will fall behind others before worrying about panthers catching us if start losing, gotta look at keeping pace with raiders and storm (dogs will fall over)
We did go 10:1 until we rested players before the playoffs in 2023 and we’re an upgrade clearly this year. But you’re right still gotta play and if stuff like Fish going down we will be in strife
Guy on reddit called Broncos Sabres does comp wide statistical analysis - it is cool stuff.
We have a 98.4% chance of making the 8 according to his stats - which I think we would all expect by now.
80.4% chance of making top 4 - again I think that's pretty fair.
What is most interesting to me is the 10.4% chance of winning the competition.
That is a remarkably high chance mid-season in a tough comp which excites me most. I doubt even the 2002 team would have been that high a chance of winning the comp mid-season
We have a 98.4% chance of making the 8 according to his stats - which I think we would all expect by now.
80.4% chance of making top 4 - again I think that's pretty fair.
What is most interesting to me is the 10.4% chance of winning the competition.
That is a remarkably high chance mid-season in a tough comp which excites me most. I doubt even the 2002 team would have been that high a chance of winning the comp mid-season
10% for minor premiership or winning GF?
if history is a good guide, 6 from our last 11 will give us top 4. Sharks were in the same position as us last year at 10-3 and 2nd after round 14. They finished off the year in 4th with a 16-8 record. Same record as us in 2023 when we finished 4th.
I think you are way too bullish on Penrith. Their longest winning streak this year is two games yet you expect them to end the year with a 10+ game winning streak? We all need to disabuse ourselves of the notion that Penrith are still the championship side of the last four years. If history is a good guide, 16 wins gets you top 4. So at most, you can lose 8. Penrith are already at 7 losses with one draw. So just one more loss and they are done for top 4. They still have to play the entire top 4 again (us, Canberra, dogs and Melbourne). On current form, they probably lose to all 4 teams and are on the brink of missing the 8, let alone the 4. Last two weeks their full strength side struggled to put away teams 13 and 16.
Realistically the only side currently outside the four that could have forced their way in was the Sharks. That's why last week's win was so important because they have a much tougher draw to end the season than us. So it's hard to see them making up 3 games on us now considering that in our final 11 games, we only play 2 teams that are currently in the 8. We aren't losing to an origin depleted penrith side that was flogged by Newcastle in the last origin depleted round. We also aren't losing to the tits who would probably lose to our NSW cup side.
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BS power rankings has us at 98.4% chance to make the 8, 80.4% chance to make the four.
View: https://www.reddit.com/r/nrl/s/pzQTzbRa1i
Admittedly it's been a bit hit and miss this year, but it's generally pretty okay most other years.
View: https://www.reddit.com/r/nrl/s/pzQTzbRa1i
Admittedly it's been a bit hit and miss this year, but it's generally pretty okay most other years.
For me, the top 4 is unlikely to change given the gap that has started to emerge. So the real uncertainty is 5th-8th. If sharks lose against the dragons (unlikely but possible) and phins beat cows (likely imo), there will be 2 pts separating 5th -12th and a whopping 6 pts separating 4th and 5th. That creates an interesting dynamic in which there are essentially 2 separate competitions: i) within the top 4, who gets to finish in the top 2 and ii) for the 8 teams from 5-12, who gets to nab the 4 positions in the bottom half of the 8.
From our perspective, we need to do everything to push for a top 2 finish. To make the GF, we probably need to have a home final in week 3, not week 2. That is much easier if we finish in the top 2 and have a home final in week 1 as well. We've set ourselves nicely for that with our amazing first half of the year.
From our perspective, we need to do everything to push for a top 2 finish. To make the GF, we probably need to have a home final in week 3, not week 2. That is much easier if we finish in the top 2 and have a home final in week 1 as well. We've set ourselves nicely for that with our amazing first half of the year.
The thread should be renamed ‘will we make top 2’.
Too 4 is almost locked in with our draw and the gap. Our mindset needs to be about what the other top 4 teams are doing and their draw.
Starting up the debate again, could the PD determine 2nd/3rd?
I wasn't actually rating Penriths chances of going on a run, rather stating that we could kill them right off this coming game if we win.
It is interesting statistically that they could take our top four berth if we let them win this one.
I am very confident of a win this week.
So we can only win 2 of the 3? No trifecta? What a let down.
We can win the third one any time if we try. I would be happy with 1 and 2!
We have 12 weeks to address the P/D situation. Case in point in our last game alone we multiplied our PD by a factor of 7 from +5 to +35. If the last game is an indication that we are starting to click and flex our muscles, there's ample time to push our pd to where the dogs and Canberra are (roughly +90). Remember that this time in 2023, our p/d was about +12. We finished the year with +124.
I'm confident of not losing this week.
Winning might be a stretch - we don't have a game.
You know wot I meant lol.
Sucks though...these bye rounds. Trying to get excited about this weeks games.
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