Sounds like the plot of a gay porno. I'm here for it, trembling in antici...
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General Will we make the 8?
- Thread starter rugged
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If you take out the byes, Canberra are at the top with the most wins (11). Then it's us and dogs at 10 wins. If anything the side whose position in the 4 is most vulnerable is the storm. They have 2 less wins than us and the dogs and the same number of wins as the 5th placed sharks (8). Their position in the four is currently being inflated by the fact that they have had all 3 byes. I think everyone is just assuming they will come good towards the end of the year. But there is something amiss with them this year. I'm starting to think that last year was their chance.
I also get the impression that the Raiders and Dogs are playing near their peak. The bulk of their squads have been together for 2 years now and as a result their combinations are much more settled than ours. Conversely our young, inexperienced squad have barely had half a season together. So it makes sense that those two sides are further along than us at this stage. But on the flip side, I think that means we have more levels to go than those other 2 teams. Metcalf is only getting better and more confident with every game. Our young forwards are starting to really assert themselves over the advantage line and dominate the league's most feared packs like the sharks on the weekend.
All of that suggests to me that we're building nicely for a run at the title this year. Of course there are risk factors- if we lose JFH for an extended period, that would be devastating for us. But barring anything out of the ordinary, I think we have as good a shot as any this year.
I also get the impression that the Raiders and Dogs are playing near their peak. The bulk of their squads have been together for 2 years now and as a result their combinations are much more settled than ours. Conversely our young, inexperienced squad have barely had half a season together. So it makes sense that those two sides are further along than us at this stage. But on the flip side, I think that means we have more levels to go than those other 2 teams. Metcalf is only getting better and more confident with every game. Our young forwards are starting to really assert themselves over the advantage line and dominate the league's most feared packs like the sharks on the weekend.
All of that suggests to me that we're building nicely for a run at the title this year. Of course there are risk factors- if we lose JFH for an extended period, that would be devastating for us. But barring anything out of the ordinary, I think we have as good a shot as any this year.
Yeah mate we haven't peaked yet, but the Raiders have such a cushioned draw you really can't make a case for them losing a game.
Panthers are just bad this year. They're not coming fifth
If Raiders lose Fogarty, like they did last year, they will fall down a peg. If that happens, we are in pole position you pounce.
Not sure about everyone else, but this year it really feels like the stars are aligning for the Wahs and something special is building.
We've been getting a fair rub of the green from the refs, and arguably at times we've even had a few games that we've had the better of the 50/50 calls.
We've had key players for other teams either get injured mid game (RW, Iro, Gilbert, Couchman) or are injured/suspended when playing us.
Penny have obviously come back to the pack, and now there's a massive log jam between 5th - 13th spot where all those teams seem to be beating each other, making the gulf between us and them even bigger.
And with the exception of Barney, it seems we've had far less injuries this year than other recent years (or maybe it's our ability to cover these injuries this year). Our halves have played 13 games on the fly...when was the last time we had 2 halves play the first 13 games of the year? Not many if any I'm guessing
Either way, I hope everyone's enjoying this run. It really could be something special. Year of the ambush baby
We've been getting a fair rub of the green from the refs, and arguably at times we've even had a few games that we've had the better of the 50/50 calls.
We've had key players for other teams either get injured mid game (RW, Iro, Gilbert, Couchman) or are injured/suspended when playing us.
Penny have obviously come back to the pack, and now there's a massive log jam between 5th - 13th spot where all those teams seem to be beating each other, making the gulf between us and them even bigger.
And with the exception of Barney, it seems we've had far less injuries this year than other recent years (or maybe it's our ability to cover these injuries this year). Our halves have played 13 games on the fly...when was the last time we had 2 halves play the first 13 games of the year? Not many if any I'm guessing
Either way, I hope everyone's enjoying this run. It really could be something special. Year of the ambush baby
Yeah but if we lose someone we might fall down the ladder.
One game at time.
Get 3 more wins make the 8... and keep going
You fucking love that tweet
You're probably right, but I haven't written them off yet.
I thought they have looked as though they are slowly putting their game back together after all of the outs. They were pretty solid last week.
You never know with them.
Yup, that was kind of my pt. Given how we are still only half way through, there are too many random variables to make any hard predictions.
Statements in the media like "Canberra are destined for the minor premiership now because of 3 byes and soft draw" are as useful as the pre-season predictions that they would be wooden spooners. Any number of things can happen to the top 4 that could change the premiership race in a defining way. We could lose JFH for the season and be in real strife. Raiders could lose Fogarty. Dog's situation with Galvin might blow up in their faces. Any injury to a single Storm spine would also disrupt their premiership hopes. Hard to make these judgments.
As you say, one game at a time. 3 more to guarantee top 8. 6 more to guarantee top 4 and 8 more to guarantee top 2. Lets go!
They kind of lost the plot last year when Fogarty got done by injury. The decline wasn't immediate but gradual over the whole year.
This year they've only had one match without Fogarty this year. In that game (v roosters), their attack started to look super clunky with Ethan Sanders and were on track to lose that game. Had it not been for Rooster Mark (not going to try) botching another bomb, Roosters probably go on to win that game.
They have enough forward depth to cover Tapine or Pappa. But based on that Roosters game, losing Fogarty would be their achilles heel.
Let's assume history is going to be repeated. Then top 8 requires 13 wins and 32 pts. Top 4 requires 16 wins and 38 pts. Top 2 requires 18 wins and 42 pts. We are currently 10-3 and have 11 games remaining, 6 of which are at Mt Smart.
So a realistic top 2 finish would require at least 8/11 to finish the year. Let's assume we win all our remaining home games (6) against bottom 8 opposition. That alone gives us 6 wins and secures us top 4. On top of that, we'd need two more away wins out of our last 5. Three of those are against sides currently outside the 8: Newcastle (rd 20) , Gold Coast (rd 25) and Manly (rd 27). Probably take Manly off the table because we'll probably be resting our players for finals. So if we win the two away games at Newcastle and Gold Coast, both of whom have losing records at home, that gets us to 18 wins and 42 pts.
All of this is to say there is a path for us to a top 2 finish and 2 home finals. Of course it depends on i) no more serious injuries, ii) winning all our home games and iii) winning half of our remaining away games. Nothing is guaranteed and we cannot go into any of these games thinking they are guaranteed. But based on our current trajectory, it doesn't seem outlandish at all.
So a realistic top 2 finish would require at least 8/11 to finish the year. Let's assume we win all our remaining home games (6) against bottom 8 opposition. That alone gives us 6 wins and secures us top 4. On top of that, we'd need two more away wins out of our last 5. Three of those are against sides currently outside the 8: Newcastle (rd 20) , Gold Coast (rd 25) and Manly (rd 27). Probably take Manly off the table because we'll probably be resting our players for finals. So if we win the two away games at Newcastle and Gold Coast, both of whom have losing records at home, that gets us to 18 wins and 42 pts.
All of this is to say there is a path for us to a top 2 finish and 2 home finals. Of course it depends on i) no more serious injuries, ii) winning all our home games and iii) winning half of our remaining away games. Nothing is guaranteed and we cannot go into any of these games thinking they are guaranteed. But based on our current trajectory, it doesn't seem outlandish at all.
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I hope Titans don’t turn into 2024 Wahs killers again, maybe Manly was just crap
We should be able to handle their speed better with our dominant pack and juniors around the park this year if Titans do improve
If there's one team the current top 4 would be hoping doesnt make the finals its Penrith. After Storm their probably the team u wouldnt want to face in a finals series.......even with their player losses and indifferent early season form. If they do end up in the finals from how they started this season it wouldve meant they've found some form and some confidence......combine that with their big match experience and thats a considerable proposition to face in play offs. Until their mathematically no chance it'd be silly writing them off.
Id imagine a number of clubs are hoping we do a number on them next week, keep nailing the lid in that coffin,
I'm more worried by Brisbane than I am by Penrith. They are currently in the 8 and their form is hardly world beating: their full strength side barely got over Parra and Wests in dire cripple fights. Given the big gulf that has opened up between the top 4 and the rest, it's entirely possible that the bottom end of the 8 will have losing records this year. So Penrith, or whoever finishes 8th, could limp in without a huge head of steam and get bundled out easily in week 1. The comp needs to stop getting so paranoid about Penrith. They aren't doing jack this year.
Amusing I think 6th placed team has a negative win/loss record
This ain’t Super Rugby!-
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