General Will we make the 8?

[rugged]

How awesome that we have not needed to create this thread earlier!!!

32 points should be enough to qualify.

We are currently on 20 and have two byes to come meaning we need to win 4/12 remaining games.

The last two years 38 points has enough to be top 4 (regardless of points diff) so that would mean we need to win 7/12.

As the table currently stands number of teams we play in each position
Teams 1 -6 - two
Teams 7-12th - four
Teams 13th - 17th -six

Still a long way to go and any nrl team can tip you up - but we are well positioned.

 

[Defence]

Fair bit of doom and gloom around here but for me, I had us 8th- 10th with our squad at the start of the year so considering all the injuries, to have a finals spot sewed up with 3 games to go and still in the hunt for top 4 that’s a fantastic effort imho.
Anything from here on in is a bonus.

 

[Wrighty]

OK THAT'S IT - WARRIORS MAKE TOP 8 TWO TIMES OUT OF THE FIRST THREE YEARS OF WEBSTER.

 

[FormerlyJamesW]

I don't think we can understate how much of an achievement that is.

We lost a lot of experience pre season.
We were pinned for the spoon.

We lost a lot of experience mid season.
We were pinned to drop out of the 8.

Webby is now the most successful Warriors coach, since Ivan Cleary.

It's a low bar, but he's jumped over it.

 

[Completion Rate]

Thought long and hard about the loss to the Eels and this is where I land.
After watching their game against the Roosters I knew we were never going to win it - some teams (usually the ones with the elite halfs like Moses) play like they know what they're doing. Their tries come from good simple hole running and support play. Not flashy or rehersed shapes and block plays like ours. They have good direction around the field, and they defend like its just business.

While I don't really hold out much hope for the rest of this season - we've really overachieved again - the DNA is taking shape. Gone are the hopeless days of being also-rans, predictable and fundamentally poor - where good coaches would kill us with a good gameplan (first titans game and raiders round 1 notwithstanding)

There are definitely clear improvements made in this iteration of the Warriors, and you can see how its going to improve. The DNA is there, we are developing the right kind of players, and we are competitive in the mean time. So all good - this season has been a success at the cost of a couple of ACLs.

While of course the fan in me wants them to be top-4, winning games, title contenders etc. The footballer in me can see we just don't have the right players to get there YET - even if Luke and Barney were fit. But we're getting (finals) experience into the guys who will be seniors when we do eventually win it - and we have the most promising juniors in the league. It's a matter of when, not if.

It does go to show however, that a player like Mitch Moses can make an average team a contender. The boot, the vision and the competitiveness. No shade on Tanah Boyd, but we're not winning anything with him running the team.

 

[slime]

I looked back through the historical odds to see how we went against the odds this season.
It looks like we're finishing pretty bang on what was expected as the unexpected wins and losses are equal on 5.

• Expected Wins - 9 - Roosters, Knights, Dragons, Dolphins, Rabbitohs, Tigers, Knights, Dragons, Titans
• Unexpected Wins - 5 - Sea Eagles, Tigers, Broncos, Cowboys, Sharks (Round 2, 4, 7, 9, 14)
• Expected Losses - 4 - Storm, Broncos, Dolphins, Bulldogs
• Unexpected Losses - 5 - Raiders, Raiders, Panthers, Titans, Eels (Round 1, 12, 16, 21, 26)

Worst performance - Paying $1.20 to win vs Panthers B team in Round 16, and lost.
Best performance - Paying $3.51 to win vs Manly in Round 2, and won.

I think this backs up how much of a loss Barnett was, as he was present for 4 unexpected wins and only 1 unexpected loss (first game of the season in Las Vegas)*. We've only had 1 unexpected win without Barnett (v Sharks Round 14).

* Edit: I missed that Barnett was out for the second Raiders game for State of Origin, and originally said he was there for both Raiders losses.

 

[Completion Rate]

Yeah just gotta look at the next step really, less focus on winning a comp at the moment and becoming a consistent top 8 / 4 team, if we win a comp in the next 5 years we probably look back at 2025 as the foundation for it. So the focus needs to be on laying it now

If you look at premiership winners historically, the majority have been making at least preliminary finals in the 2 or 3 years before winning the big one. As long as we are trending as finalists consistently, we'll have a year where it all works out. It's a 25/26 round comp and getting through that relatively unscathed is the hardest part.
So I 100% agree as you say, hopefully we'll look back at the 25'season as a cornerstone year.
Very hard watching knowing it likely won't be this year though, but keeping the faith in the club actually seems viable atm and not the masochistic fantasy it has been in the past.