General Will we make the 8?

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📝 Summary:

The forum discussion centers on the New Zealand Warriors' prospects for NRL finals qualification, particularly the feasibility of securing a Top 4 or Top 8 spot amid fluctuating form and injuries. Early optimism highlighted the team's strong start to the season, with members calculating points targets for finals contention and analyzing favorable run-home fixtures against lower-ranked teams #1#3. User analysis emphasized that winning 6-7 of their remaining games could secure a Top 4 finish #3#97, while statistical models projected an 80.4% probability of Top 4 and 98.4% for Top 8 #47#52.
The narrative shifted significantly following key injuries to players like Mitchell Barnett season-ending and later Luke Metcalf, which intensified concerns about depth and performance sustainability #8#147#170. Critical posts debated the team's resilience, with some arguing replacements like Dylan Walker and Taine Tuaupiki could maintain competitiveness #29#177, while others warned that further injuries could jeopardize their ladder position #94#163.
Ladder predictions evolved throughout the thread, initially favoring a Top 2 push but later acknowledging challenges after losses to Penrith and Brisbane #132#154. The Raiders were frequently cited as minor premiership favorites due to their soft draw and bye advantages #64#135. By the later stages, the focus pivoted to securing any finals berth, with users noting that even 2 more wins should suffice for Top 8 qualification given the congested lower half of the ladder #203351#213. Noteworthy analyses included breakdowns of opposing teams’ run-home difficulty #66#139 and reflections on the psychological impact of late-season slumps #186#205.

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Finals Qualification, Injury Impact, Ladder Predictions

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wizard of Tauranga said:
The thread should be renamed ‘will we make top 2’.

Too 4 is almost locked in with our draw and the gap. Our mindset needs to be about what the other top 4 teams are doing and their draw.

Starting up the debate again, could the PD determine 2nd/3rd?
Click to expand...

If we replicate 2023's 10:1 style run home then our PD will beat Raiders/Dogs, though Raiders will probably take out No.1 due to their soft draw and 3 byes in hand, they've done all the hard work now.

So it's down to us, dogs and storm, I see the dogs will fall off with about 9 tough games coming up, and storm as the real threat as their PD will probably be in the +200-300 range, to hold them off we should do it with 8:3 (they have to win 10:2) or 9:2 (storm have to win 11:1, highly unlikely)

To get to 8:3 if we beat all the bottom 8 sides we'll get there, IMO last game vs Manly away and DCE's last might be too tough, so 7 wins plus 1 against Panthers will be enough, jag 1 more from Brisbane or Canterbury we're a lock for top 2.
 
looking at the teams run in, i think the raiders are a shoe in for minor premiership, 3 byes remaining and a soft as hell fixture list. our aim should be top 2, back to back home finals with the second one being a GF qualifier. if we can snatch a win against an origin-less panthers side then a resurgent brisbane before our next by we should absolutely be finishing in the top2
 
sydneywarrior92 said:
For me, the top 4 is unlikely to change given the gap that has started to emerge. So the real uncertainty is 5th-8th. If sharks lose against the dragons (unlikely but possible) and phins beat cows (likely imo), there will be 2 pts separating 5th -12th and a whopping 6 pts separating 4th and 5th. That creates an interesting dynamic in which there are essentially 2 separate competitions: i) within the top 4, who gets to finish in the top 2 and ii) for the 8 teams from 5-12, who gets to nab the 4 positions in the bottom half of the 8.

From our perspective, we need to do everything to push for a top 2 finish. To make the GF, we probably need to have a home final in week 3, not week 2. That is much easier if we finish in the top 2 and have a home final in week 1 as well. We've set ourselves nicely for that with our amazing first half of the year.
Click to expand...
The other thing is that we know we can do it now - up until a couple of games ago I think we were still, 'phew, that was lucky' - we're making our own luck now and we're only getting better - touching wood and hoping against hope we don't have other major personnel issues (even so we have shown the squad mentality is really delivering), we're realistically fighting for top spot now - that's amazing, and I'm here for every moment of it
 
CWC said:
If we replicate 2023's 10:1 style run home then our PD will beat Raiders/Dogs, though Raiders will probably take out No.1 due to their soft draw and 3 byes in hand, they've done all the hard work now.

So it's down to us, dogs and storm, I see the dogs will fall off with about 9 tough games coming up, and storm as the real threat as their PD will probably be in the +200-300 range, to hold them off we should do it with 8:3 (they have to win 10:2) or 9:2 (storm have to win 11:1, highly unlikely)

To get to 8:3 if we beat all the bottom 8 sides we'll get there, IMO last game vs Manly away and DCE's last might be too tough, so 7 wins plus 1 against Panthers will be enough, jag 1 more from Brisbane or Canterbury we're a lock for top 2.
Click to expand...
yes , looking at r15 onwards for the current top 4, Raiders have the softest draw and would be a good bet for MP.
We are next , then both the Storm and bulldogs have quite a tough run home. I think #2 spot is ours to loose.
 
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Sammyw said:
looking at the teams run in, i think the raiders are a shoe in for minor premiership, 3 byes remaining and a soft as hell fixture list. our aim should be top 2, back to back home finals with the second one being a GF qualifier. if we can snatch a win against an origin-less panthers side then a resurgent brisbane before our next by we should absolutely be finishing in the top2
Click to expand...
Completely agree, something catastrophic would have to happen for them to not finish top from here
 
Lance155 said:
Completely agree, something catastrophic would have to happen for them to not finish top from here
Click to expand...

On one hand I agree with you, but then on the other this is genuinely one of the toughest competitions in the world - there's no easy wins and every single week there are usually 2-5 upsets.

Us, Raiders and Bulldogs have decent draws to end the year and should see us win enough to stay in the top 4, but you just know there's going to be a few twists and turns.

If Raiders shit the bed I have a sneaky feeling that it's going to be us who benefit the most.

Year of the ambush baby
 
CWC said:
If we replicate 2023's 10:1 style run home then our PD will beat Raiders/Dogs, though Raiders will probably take out No.1 due to their soft draw and 3 byes in hand, they've done all the hard work now.

So it's down to us, dogs and storm, I see the dogs will fall off with about 9 tough games coming up, and storm as the real threat as their PD will probably be in the +200-300 range, to hold them off we should do it with 8:3 (they have to win 10:2) or 9:2 (storm have to win 11:1, highly unlikely)

To get to 8:3 if we beat all the bottom 8 sides we'll get there, IMO last game vs Manly away and DCE's last might be too tough, so 7 wins plus 1 against Panthers will be enough, jag 1 more from Brisbane or Canterbury we're a lock for top 2.
Click to expand...
Apart from Barnett out, imo i reckon we have a firmer foundation to go deeper into the finals this year than 2023 bar injury,
It's reminiscent of 2002.
 
Dlenai said:

View: https://www.instagram.com/reel/DKyxty5P_6g/?igsh=MTV6amZjZGpreG9hZg==

An insight to what I’ve noticed on the field - never seen a Warriors team so connected on the field until this season
Click to expand...

I have not only noticed it on the field but also off the field, social media has been great.
The big upside from Webby has been "MAN Management" i.e. Fish has brought that training ethic and hardness to the team, Barney has brought that "We move as a team" ethic and the CNK and DWZ have brought the fun and bonding after a torrid game. Watching the team singing the team song is awesome.
 
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