General Will we make the 8?

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📝 Summary:

The forum discussion centers on the New Zealand Warriors' prospects for NRL finals qualification, particularly the feasibility of securing a Top 4 or Top 8 spot amid fluctuating form and injuries. Early optimism highlighted the team's strong start to the season, with members calculating points targets for finals contention and analyzing favorable run-home fixtures against lower-ranked teams #1#3. User analysis emphasized that winning 6-7 of their remaining games could secure a Top 4 finish #3#97, while statistical models projected an 80.4% probability of Top 4 and 98.4% for Top 8 #47#52.
The narrative shifted significantly following key injuries to players like Mitchell Barnett season-ending and later Luke Metcalf, which intensified concerns about depth and performance sustainability #8#147#170. Critical posts debated the team's resilience, with some arguing replacements like Dylan Walker and Taine Tuaupiki could maintain competitiveness #29#177, while others warned that further injuries could jeopardize their ladder position #94#163.
Ladder predictions evolved throughout the thread, initially favoring a Top 2 push but later acknowledging challenges after losses to Penrith and Brisbane #132#154. The Raiders were frequently cited as minor premiership favorites due to their soft draw and bye advantages #64#135. By the later stages, the focus pivoted to securing any finals berth, with users noting that even 2 more wins should suffice for Top 8 qualification given the congested lower half of the ladder #203351#213. Noteworthy analyses included breakdowns of opposing teams’ run-home difficulty #66#139 and reflections on the psychological impact of late-season slumps #186#205.

🏷️ Tags:

Finals Qualification, Injury Impact, Ladder Predictions

📊 Data Source: Based on ALL posts in thread (total: 224 posts) | ⏱️ Total Generation Time: 19s
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FXXX YOU, DOLPHIN!

Just worked it out, kinda. Even if the Warriors A) Lose Thier Last 3 Games and B) Have Every Worst Possible Result Happen, we're not at the mercy of Competition Points Total, just the most evil, unholy combination of Points Differential Total.
 
FXXX YOU, DOLPHIN!

Just worked it out, kinda. Even if the Warriors A) Lose Thier Last 3 Games and B) Have Every Worst Possible Result Happen, we're not at the mercy of Competition Points Total, just the most evil, unholy combination of Points Differential Total.
There’s no combination of results or margins that has us missing the 8 now. 9th be it dolphins or manly, maximum they can finish on is 30 points. We are safe
 
I just noticed we're out of the top 4. Lose this weekend and we could end up 6th.
Yeah the Sharks got their two points for the bye added. I'm bitter about it, not because we are down a spot as someone pointed about the Sharks having a bye in hand last week.

Bitter about it as my son made me do a quiz and our spot on the ladder was one of the questions. If he asked me a few days ago I'd have correct.

#addthebyepointsonsunday
 
The 50 point rule played out too. If you give up 50 points you don't make the finals and we never gave up 50 points even on bad days.
I think it's no team has conceded 50 points and won a premiership. Pretty sure quite a few have conceded 50 and still made the finals. It is a top 8 so you'd get some years with team with a 50/50 record making the finals.
 
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