General Will we make the 8?

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The forum discussion centers on the New Zealand Warriors' prospects for NRL finals qualification, particularly the feasibility of securing a Top 4 or Top 8 spot amid fluctuating form and injuries. Early optimism highlighted the team's strong start to the season, with members calculating points targets for finals contention and analyzing favorable run-home fixtures against lower-ranked teams #1#3. User analysis emphasized that winning 6-7 of their remaining games could secure a Top 4 finish #3#97, while statistical models projected an 80.4% probability of Top 4 and 98.4% for Top 8 #47#52.
The narrative shifted significantly following key injuries to players like Mitchell Barnett season-ending and later Luke Metcalf, which intensified concerns about depth and performance sustainability #8#147#170. Critical posts debated the team's resilience, with some arguing replacements like Dylan Walker and Taine Tuaupiki could maintain competitiveness #29#177, while others warned that further injuries could jeopardize their ladder position #94#163.
Ladder predictions evolved throughout the thread, initially favoring a Top 2 push but later acknowledging challenges after losses to Penrith and Brisbane #132#154. The Raiders were frequently cited as minor premiership favorites due to their soft draw and bye advantages #64#135. By the later stages, the focus pivoted to securing any finals berth, with users noting that even 2 more wins should suffice for Top 8 qualification given the congested lower half of the ladder #203351#213. Noteworthy analyses included breakdowns of opposing teams’ run-home difficulty #66#139 and reflections on the psychological impact of late-season slumps #186#205.

🏷️ Tags:

Finals Qualification, Injury Impact, Ladder Predictions

📊 Data Source: Based on ALL posts in thread (total: 224 posts) | ⏱️ Total Generation Time: 19s
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I had a quick look and under th Webby era we've had 8 byes in the last 3 years, and one game against the Dolphins where we rested the majority of our A team before week 1 of the finals in 23.

Last years 3rd bye was in the final round, so we didn't have anyone to play after that, but out of the 8 byes/resting our top team we've lost 6 of those games.

Something to consider...we don't seem to be very good at backing up after the bye or having a week off.
 

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I had a quick look and under th Webby era we've had 8 byes in the last 3 years, and one game against the Dolphins where we rested the majority of our A team before week 1 of the finals in 23.

Last years 3rd bye was in the final round, so we didn't have anyone to play after that, but out of the 8 byes/resting our top team we've lost 6 of those games.

Something to consider...we don't seem to be very good at backing up after the bye or having a week off.
Great work Tooks 👏
 
I had a quick look and under th Webby era we've had 8 byes in the last 3 years, and one game against the Dolphins where we rested the majority of our A team before week 1 of the finals in 23.

Last years 3rd bye was in the final round, so we didn't have anyone to play after that, but out of the 8 byes/resting our top team we've lost 6 of those games.

Something to consider...we don't seem to be very good at backing up after the bye or having a week off.
I suspected Webster let them have an extended break over the bye. They played life they were trying but we’re still in holiday mode.

If this is the case Webster might reason a longer break and potentially losing a game might be more than compensated with greater recovery and effort across the remainder of the season?

Anyone know when the team were back training and if we did anything different to a normal week?
 
I had these games as buffers and still had a bonus with the sharks win, be clinical still a top 4 finish with a shot at 2nd with dogs coming down.

Unfortunately our form is trending in the wrong directions, Marata not doing much and Ed had a shocker
 
I mean maybe boyd will be a revelation now he is finally going to have a crack.

Ive said since preseason this is a rebuild year for us, Metcalf out rides it off but we just gotta keep working each game
Yeah I agree with you tbh. I looked at this year as seeing what the future may bring, and it’s already shown us it’s bright, but a shame to (maybe/likely) not capitalise on our great start to the year.

I’m looking forward to Boyd getting a run too tbf
 
Not panic street by any means but Metcalf and Charnze injury’s on top of missing Mitch is a huge blow…

A lot riding on their diagnosis I feel
Not too worry. Time for some entrepeneur thinking which I'm not sure our conservative coach can handle.

TMM can go to FB, TT onto the wing and ffs start throwing the pill around. Get some 2nd phase going. We are becoming very predictable and our lack of a couple of x factor players is telling. We have them in the forwards but the back stocks are very sparse.
 
Yeah I agree with you tbh. I looked at this year as seeing what the future may bring, and it’s already shown us it’s bright, but a shame to (maybe/likely) not capitalise on our great start to the year.

I’m looking forward to Boyd getting a run too tbf
Agreed, not like we haven't earnt it as our wins have been through hard work. But we've been playing well above where we were expected. There's a lot of teams below us that still have a soft underbelly, so if we can get back to what was working for us we can still continue to pick up wins and the season will be a success with a top 8 berth.

So many young guys getting massive experience and having breakout years, the future is looking bright.

We have the luxury of TMM and Boyd in NSW cup who have both been playing well. So we are lucky in that respect compared to other clubs back up half's.
 
We will make the 8, we realistically only need to win one or two more and I saw enough against the Phins to be confident of that. What’s frustrating is we likely won’t get a home semi, I thought we’d finish at worst 6th but now it looks like 7th
 
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