Team List Warriors vs Raiders - [Round 12, 2025]

[sydneywarrior92]

Last 5 weeks have been great but they have really just been the warm up for this game. If we win this without JFH and Barney against the monster Raiders pack, which I believe we can, this will send a signal to the rest of the comp that we are a serious team this year. It will also mean that we never have to talk about Vegas again.

I'm so sick of hearing about it every week, even if we win. It's been 3 months since Vegas and we've won 8 of 9 since then yet all we ever hear from the Aussie haters is "... but Vegas". Every team has s**t the bed at some pt this year. Melbourne got belted by the Dolphins who currently sit in the bottom 4. Raiders got pummeled by Manly who have been inconsistent all year. Bulldogs got smashed by Broncos who currently sit outside the 8. Yet none of these teams are haunted by those horror shows to the same extent we are with our Vegas debacle.

It all ends this week. Packed and Blacked out for our first home game in a month. Revenge on the menu. Special Occasion with the Dear Warrior Jerseys. Raiders coming to Mt Smart fatigued and tired from travel and the lack of a bye. Wet and dewy surface on a Sunday Auckland Night hampering the open attacking style of the Raiders and benefitting our defensive gameplan. All of the stars are aligning this week for a reverse ambush and six in a row. Win this and we go 4pts clear of 3rd and 2nd place is ours to lose. So the ceiling of how far we can go this season will be dictated by the outcome of this game.

 

[FormerlyJamesW]

With a relatively soft draw to finish the season, 2nd would be ours to lose.

There's a few revenge games in there (Manly, Dargs, Phins) and we have the Titans twice.

The former three could be fighting for a top8 spot. The latter could be fighting against the spoon.

I wouldn't say those games are in the bag, just yet...

 

[sydneywarrior92]

There's a few revenge games in there (Manly, Dargs, Phins) and we have the Titans twice.

The former three could be fighting for a top8 spot. The latter could be fighting against the spoon.

I wouldn't say those games are in the bag, just yet...

didn't mean to suggest that. No easy games in the NRL. But I'd rather be playing those sides than Melbourne, Dogs or Canberra twice. The way I see it is if we beat Canberra, we have a real chance at a top 2 finish. With a 4 pt leg up on Canberra and Melbourne for 2nd place, we will have the motivation to maintain a top 2 finish by barnstorming home in the final stage of the year. If we lose to Canberra, we're probably aiming for an edge top 4 position (3rd or 4th) at best.

Of course a top 4 position is an amazing outcome for us, especially relative to our expectations at the beginning of the seasons. Having a home final is great but what we really want is a home final in week 3, not week 2. A top 2 finish gives us that opportunity with 2 home finals.

 

[FormerlyJamesW]

We'll also have the motivation as well to maintain a top 2 finish. Having a home final is great but what we really want is a home final in week 3, not week 2.

For sure!

I definitely think we have the troops to make a red hot crack at this.

 

[Tookey 2.0]

didn't mean to suggest that. No easy games in the NRL. But I'd rather be playing those sides than Melbourne, Dogs or Canberra twice. The way I see it is if we beat Canberra, we have a real chance at a top 2 finish. With a 4 pt leg up on Canberra and Melbourne for 2nd place, we will have the motivation to maintain a top 2 finish by barnstorming home in the final stage of the year. If we lose to Canberra, we're probably aiming for an edge top 4 position (3rd or 4th) at best.

Of course a top 4 position is an amazing outcome for us, especially relative to our expectations at the beginning of the seasons. Having a home final is great but what we really want is a home final in week 3, not week 2. A top 2 finish gives us that opportunity with 2 home finals.

Also, Doggies have a pretty hard run home, playing us, Panthers 2x, Sharks, Broncos, Roosters (who I see as dark horses), Cowboys and Storm, which imo is a much harder run home than we have.

Ive been saying all year, it's the year of the ambush baby

 

[sydneywarrior92]

Also, Doggies have a pretty hard run home, playing us, Panthers 2x, Sharks, Broncos, Roosters (who I see as dark horses), Cowboys and Storm, which imo is a much harder run home than we have.

Ive been saying all year, it's the year of the ambush baby

I think we are the dark horse contender to most Aussie pundits.

The draw evens out in the end. Doggies have only played one top 8 side so far, so that's clearly compensated by a harder end of the draw. As for us, our schedule gets back ended with more home games given the away run we are currently going through with. I think Canberra is also in the same boat as us, having travelled quite a lot to begin the year. So I expect them to be right up there as well till the end with all their home games to come.

As for other teams, I'd hate to be Manly or Dragons right now. Their draw front loaded their home games so they needed to have a strong start to the year. They are going to be traveling a lot towards the back end of the year, so I'm skeptical that either of those sides makes a serious push this year.

 

[sup42]

if we win, we can do better than top 4. At that pt, We'll be 4 pts ahead of 3rd. With a relatively soft draw to finish the season, 2nd would be ours to lose. If we lose, we'll still be 2 pts clear of 4th. Providing we come back strong after the loss, a top 4 finish would still be on the cards.

When I did the Ladder predictor I had us finishing 5th if we lose this one and we lose against the biggest threats of the draw to come.

Being conservative about it Í had us lose against:

Raiders
Sharks
Broncos
Penrith
Bulldogs

Which means to attain fourth we would have beaten:

Rabbitohs
Tigers
Knights
Titans
Dolphins
Dragons
Titans
Eels
Manly

So that in my estimation would be a great outcome, fourth place based off our draw to come.

If we lose even one game more than what I have projected (very likely) we will end up fifth.

So I see this game - as I said, as a chance to keep our top four dream alive.

 

[sydneywarrior92]

When I did the Ladder predictor I had us finishing 5th if we lose this one and we lose against the biggest threats of the draw to come.

Being conservative about it Í had us lose against:

Raiders
Sharks
Broncos
Penrith
Bulldogs

Which means to attain fourth we would have beaten:

Rabbitohs
Tigers
Knights
Titans
Dolphins
Dragons
Titans
Eels
Manly

So that in my estimation would be a great outcome, fourth place based off our draw to come.

If we lose even one game more than what I have projected (very likely) we will end up fifth.

So I see this game - as I said, as a chance to keep our top four dream alive.

I don't know why you have us losing to Penrith at home. It is 3 days after the Perth origin game. So It is incredibly unlikely that we'll be facing Cleary, Edwards, etc given the short turn around and travel. It's certainly not Ivan's style to play his origin stars immediately after origin. If we beat Canberra on Sunday, I don't think we lose another game at Mt Smart. The rest of the games are against teams currently outside the 8.

As for the away games, I agree the Sharks and Dogs games are tough. But I don't think you should be throwing away the Broncos game. We've already won twice at Suncorp and on current form, we are more than a chance of beating the Broncs again. So under my admittedly more optimistic view, the NRL ladder predictor has us at 2nd.

 

[Noitall]

I don't know why you have us losing to Penrith at home. It is 3 days after the Perth origin game. So It is incredibly unlikely that we'll be facing Cleary, Edwards, etc given the short turn around and travel. It's certainly not Ivan's style to play his origin stars immediately after origin. If we beat Canberra on Sunday, I don't think we lose another game at Mt Smart. The rest of the games are against teams currently outside the 8.

As for the away games, I agree the Sharks and Dogs games are tough. But I don't think you should be throwing away the Broncos game. We've already won twice at Suncorp and on current form, we are more than a chance of beating the Broncs again. So under my admittedly more optimistic view, the NRL ladder predictor has us at 2nd.

I’ve become extremely confident in the team too and there’s become an expect to win attitude I’ve developed. I really think we can foot it with any team and the storm at home game becomes important in my mind. We showed last magic round that we’ve got what it takes to beat panthers and we need to beat that hoodoo that is the storm for us

 

[sup42]

I don't know why you have us losing to Penrith at home. It is 3 days after the Perth origin game. So It is incredibly unlikely that we'll be facing Cleary, Edwards, etc given the short turn around and travel. It's certainly not Ivan's style to play his origin stars immediately after origin. If we beat Canberra on Sunday, I don't think we lose another game at Mt Smart. The rest of the games are against teams currently outside the 8.

As for the away games, I agree the Sharks and Dogs games are tough. But I don't think you should be throwing away the Broncos game. We've already won twice at Suncorp and on current form, we are more than a chance of beating the Broncs again. So under my admittedly more optimistic view, the NRL ladder predictor has us at 2nd.

I love the optimism and don't worry I believe in our defence.

I broadly imagine that we will be tested by injury, Refs, that kind of thing. We have to lose some games. So I just picked all the teams which on their day offer the most attacking threat to our defence (except for the Dogs where it is a defence v defence war).

 

[Noitall]

(except for the Dogs where it is a defence v defence war).

That also becomes an important game, not that the rest aren’t. I’ve got a feeling they might lose to dolphins this week with no Crichton

 

[sup42]

That also becomes an important game, not that the rest aren’t. I’ve got a feeling they might lose to dolphins this week with no Crichton

And even with Crichton I just can't let myself give the dogs a win against us (In me waters - I just cannot adjust to the truth that 'the Dogs are good' v us.).

 

[Noitall]

And even with Crichton I just can't let myself give the dogs a win against us (In me waters - I just cannot adjust to the truth that 'the Dogs are good' v us.).

He brought them back against raiders. As much as I can’t stand the guy, he’s very impressive. Just wants to win at all costs. We obviously lose at some point, but even against adversity, I still feel a confidence that we can beat it

 

[sup42]

He brought them back against raiders. As much as I can’t stand the guy, he’s very impressive. Just wants to win at all costs. We obviously lose at some point, but even against adversity, I still feel a confidence that we can beat it

Yeah In my heart I can deny it, in my head no way, Crichton is amazing bro. Would love have a player like him.

 

[FormerlyJamesW]

And even with Crichton I just can't let myself give the dogs a win against us (In me waters - I just cannot adjust to the truth that 'the Dogs are good' v us.).

It's perfectly reasonable to be confident and be cautious.

Rugby League is a funny game and the seasons are long.

I'm probably in the middle of caution and confidence, to the point where even one dominant display in attack (20+ lead kept) will tip me into the latter category.

That being said, if we lose this weekend, I won't be all doom and gloom. It's a tough ask, given both of our captains are out.

I believe we have it in us to win, but I doubt it will be pretty.

 

[Get them onside ref!]

There's a few revenge games in there (Manly, Dargs, Phins) and we have the Titans twice.

The former three could be fighting for a top8 spot. The latter could be fighting against the spoon.

I wouldn't say those games are in the bag, just yet...

Early days
Start losing a few games
Like losing a girlfriend
I get knocked down but I get up again

 

[Noitall]

It's perfectly reasonable to be confident and be cautious.

Rugby League is a funny game and the seasons are long.

I'm probably in the middle of caution and confidence, to the point where even one dominant display in attack (20+ lead kept) will tip me into the latter category.

That being said, if we lose this weekend, I won't be all doom and gloom. It's a tough ask, given both of our captains are out.

I believe we have it in us to win, but I doubt it will be pretty.

They’re an Aussie team that can have similar weather to us, so I’m not expecting any advantage there but home has become a fortress with the crowd being a hostile one, much like the raiders enjoy at home. I would love to see a statement win, but as you say with the troops down a grind is likely

 

[Noitall]

Early days

Nearing midway. Hopefully attack now starts to develop and defence continues to be strong

 

[FormerlyJamesW]

They’re an Aussie team that can have similar weather to us, so I’m not expecting any advantage there but home has become a fortress with the crowd being a hostile one, much like the raiders enjoy at home. I would love to see a statement win, but as you say with the troops down a grind is likely

If you're going to grind a team out and be viewed as a serious threat, you're looking at (right now) the Raiders, Doggies and Storm.

I'd also love a flashy win. But if we manage to contain them to how we've been winning recently, that's a huge tick in favour of claiming our current gameplan works.

 

[Noitall]

If you're going to grind a team out and be viewed as a serious threat, you're looking at (right now) the Raiders, Doggies and Storm.

I'd also love a flashy win. But if we manage to contain them to how we've been winning recently, that's a huge tick in favour of claiming our current gameplan works.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m content winning in any fashion. Was interesting listening to Braith Anasta on nrl 360 last night talking about the brotherhood at the bulldogs. It’s easy to see it’s something that’s evident with us also. Being those two teams we know there’s a tight connection and they sit 1 and 2 on the ladder, I think this is important to a team dynamic