General Will we make the 8?
- Thread starter rugged
- Start date
NZWarriors.com
Freshen up Egan. His body will be happy when the season is over
Let's not make rash statements before we've hit 40
NZWarriors.com
We maybe the worst top 4 team in the NRL. It just stinks that we can't hold our place and now need to rely on other results to stay there. Like most of you have said, we are not are top 4 team yet. God knows how we even got to top 4.
Pretty easy really. We strung a succession of wins together in the first 12 rounds of the comp due largely to our Dally M leading halfback.
Thought long and hard about the loss to the Eels and this is where I land.
After watching their game against the Roosters I knew we were never going to win it - some teams (usually the ones with the elite halfs like Moses) play like they know what they're doing. Their tries come from good simple hole running and support play. Not flashy or rehersed shapes and block plays like ours. They have good direction around the field, and they defend like its just business.
While I don't really hold out much hope for the rest of this season - we've really overachieved again - the DNA is taking shape. Gone are the hopeless days of being also-rans, predictable and fundamentally poor - where good coaches would kill us with a good gameplan (first titans game and raiders round 1 notwithstanding)
There are definitely clear improvements made in this iteration of the Warriors, and you can see how its going to improve. The DNA is there, we are developing the right kind of players, and we are competitive in the mean time. So all good - this season has been a success at the cost of a couple of ACLs.
While of course the fan in me wants them to be top-4, winning games, title contenders etc. The footballer in me can see we just don't have the right players to get there YET - even if Luke and Barney were fit. But we're getting (finals) experience into the guys who will be seniors when we do eventually win it - and we have the most promising juniors in the league. It's a matter of when, not if.
It does go to show however, that a player like Mitch Moses can make an average team a contender. The boot, the vision and the competitiveness. No shade on Tanah Boyd, but we're not winning anything with him running the team.
After watching their game against the Roosters I knew we were never going to win it - some teams (usually the ones with the elite halfs like Moses) play like they know what they're doing. Their tries come from good simple hole running and support play. Not flashy or rehersed shapes and block plays like ours. They have good direction around the field, and they defend like its just business.
While I don't really hold out much hope for the rest of this season - we've really overachieved again - the DNA is taking shape. Gone are the hopeless days of being also-rans, predictable and fundamentally poor - where good coaches would kill us with a good gameplan (first titans game and raiders round 1 notwithstanding)
There are definitely clear improvements made in this iteration of the Warriors, and you can see how its going to improve. The DNA is there, we are developing the right kind of players, and we are competitive in the mean time. So all good - this season has been a success at the cost of a couple of ACLs.
While of course the fan in me wants them to be top-4, winning games, title contenders etc. The footballer in me can see we just don't have the right players to get there YET - even if Luke and Barney were fit. But we're getting (finals) experience into the guys who will be seniors when we do eventually win it - and we have the most promising juniors in the league. It's a matter of when, not if.
It does go to show however, that a player like Mitch Moses can make an average team a contender. The boot, the vision and the competitiveness. No shade on Tanah Boyd, but we're not winning anything with him running the team.
NZWarriors.com
So did your Manly.
Overachieved or underchieved, there isn't much in it. Let's just say they have surprised the pundits and the fans and the future is bright,
Yeah just gotta look at the next step really, less focus on winning a comp at the moment and becoming a consistent top 8 / 4 team, if we win a comp in the next 5 years we probably look back at 2025 as the foundation for it. So the focus needs to be on laying it now
NZWarriors.com
It’s a strange feeling indeed to look at our team and all the others around us and even though we’re finals bound I get the sense we’ll really struggle from here. Sharks, Roosters,Manly, Penrith and Phins - are all going to be playing out of their skins to try and jag the top 8 or improve their spot. I feel like we are trending towards 6th or 7th now with a few results around us to go and if we field a weakened team against the Sharks we’ll come into the finals with a refreshed A team that’s not really playing their best footy.
Can't agree with you there #138. Top 8 essentially now decided, Manly and Phins can't make it, unless by an absolute freak scoreline. There's a PD of 82 between 8 and 9 with one round to play. Only the Sharks can jump us unless the NRL bods can find a slim reason to award 3 points for a win
(not beyond the realms of possibility I assume given the way things had panned out this weekend)Be very nice for the Knights to find an extra gear this afternoon but realistically Bronx (home vs Storm) and Sharks (away vs Dogs) need to lose next week and we need to win to get to 4th otherwise 5 or 6 for us.
As Bronx are first up on Thursday, we'll know whether top 4 is still a dream for us Friday night at Manly. After that, if it's still on, then, no choice, we're backing Doggies Saturday night. Really?? Awe yuk 
NZWarriors.com
I looked back through the historical odds to see how we went against the odds this season.
It looks like we're finishing pretty bang on what was expected as the unexpected wins and losses are equal on 5.
Best performance - Paying $3.51 to win vs Manly in Round 2, and won.
I think this backs up how much of a loss Barnett was, as he was present for 4 unexpected wins and only 1 unexpected loss (first game of the season in Las Vegas)*. We've only had 1 unexpected win without Barnett (v Sharks Round 14).
* Edit: I missed that Barnett was out for the second Raiders game for State of Origin, and originally said he was there for both Raiders losses.
It looks like we're finishing pretty bang on what was expected as the unexpected wins and losses are equal on 5.
- Expected Wins - 9 - Roosters, Knights, Dragons, Dolphins, Rabbitohs, Tigers, Knights, Dragons, Titans
- Unexpected Wins - 5 - Sea Eagles, Tigers, Broncos, Cowboys, Sharks (Round 2, 4, 7, 9, 14)
- Expected Losses - 4 - Storm, Broncos, Dolphins, Bulldogs
- Unexpected Losses - 5 - Raiders, Raiders, Panthers, Titans, Eels (Round 1, 12, 16, 21, 26)
Best performance - Paying $3.51 to win vs Manly in Round 2, and won.
I think this backs up how much of a loss Barnett was, as he was present for 4 unexpected wins and only 1 unexpected loss (first game of the season in Las Vegas)*. We've only had 1 unexpected win without Barnett (v Sharks Round 14).
* Edit: I missed that Barnett was out for the second Raiders game for State of Origin, and originally said he was there for both Raiders losses.
Last edited:
Have Manly given up now or they seriously aiming to beat us by 70 points next week?
and we were only getting better too... such a 'what if' in the end... btw I still think we can cause a few waves in finals ... ideally would like to be in the 4 but it will be hilarious if we stay there in 6th and end up with the panthers at home for the elimination and .... win.... giving us the chance to be the only team to challenge for the premiership from outside the top4, usurping penrith's own plan...
NZWarriors.com
Worst we can finish is 6th
Yep, I think we will lose to Manly, and then I think we come up against Penrith who will send us crashing out of the premiership.
NZWarriors.com
Barney wasn’t playing against the second raiders game, so we probably win that one with both our captains playing too
IMO we are legit top 4 with Barney and Metcalf, in terms of winning it we are underdogs but can challenge hard. Without the best players we’re 5-8th as we’re showing, Boyd has 1-2 months gelling and we’re playing a lot better albeit some freak tries against us or lack of focus at times
Teams like Storm, Raiders and Broncos are the title contenders and if they lose their captain and 7 they’ll be top 4 but not top of the tree, dogs are top 4 but if losing their best players will drop to our level (Burton etc)
We probably will rely on our juniors to improve with this year’s experience to get to premiership level on top of best players back, or sign a back or 2 to get there. Just a shame IMO TMM is already in the squad but wasted big time he can set up tries left and right shown in 2024, which was what we had issues with all year, and it’s the coaches that need to maximize that for the team, especially if we can’t sign anyone worthy out there
PS I reckon we have a premiership pack
Teams like Storm, Raiders and Broncos are the title contenders and if they lose their captain and 7 they’ll be top 4 but not top of the tree, dogs are top 4 but if losing their best players will drop to our level (Burton etc)
We probably will rely on our juniors to improve with this year’s experience to get to premiership level on top of best players back, or sign a back or 2 to get there. Just a shame IMO TMM is already in the squad but wasted big time he can set up tries left and right shown in 2024, which was what we had issues with all year, and it’s the coaches that need to maximize that for the team, especially if we can’t sign anyone worthy out there
PS I reckon we have a premiership pack
