International Warriors ‘Origin run’

Matiunz

Matiunz

Contributor
Much like the tired old ‘Big Warriors forwards’ myth ‘Warriors go on a run at Origin time’ gets trotted out this time of year.
Thought I’d have a look and see how true that really is was. For reference I included all games over the entirety of the origin period- weekend prior game one to weekend after game 3 inclusive.
Just went back the last decade to see what the trend was and obviously excluded the 2020 season where origin was played in November. I also put the season winning percentage for reference on the form for the year

2015
4W/2L/2bye (66%) vs season 40%
2016
4W/2L/1bye (66%) vs season 43%
2017
3W/3L/2bye (50%) vs season 30%
2018
3W/2L/1bye (60%) vs season 62.5%
2019
2W/2L/1D (50%) vs season 40%
2021
0W/6L (0%) vs season 33%
2022
1W/4L/1bye (20%) vs season 25%
2023
5W/2L/1bye (71%) vs season 67%
2024
2W/4L/2bye (33%) vs season 39%
Overall Origin Period wins 47%
Season win average 40%

All in all while yes a slight increase over a 10 year period but not enough to make it a significant advantage it’s made out to be. Only 4 out of the 9 seasons had a significant jump from our season average and these were clumped together over a 5 year period at the start of the period which may be the basis of the stereotype but the last 4 seasons in particular have been the opposite.
I’ll put this in the myth category
 
We have one player on origin duty for game one (who knows what selection changes might happen for games 2 and 3). I'd be interested to see the numbers for the other teams especially those we are playing around origin. There must be some Aus teams also contributing one or no players so I would be curious to know how many teams are actually worse affected than us. Of course some teams can also more easily cover their origin players with quality back ups too.

This info would be pretty easily gathered I just don't have time right at this moment... Open to anyone who wants to pick that up and post it of course. 😁
 
I used AI to take out the covid 2021 outlier and it's 53% 🤣

The discrepancy is going to be bigger than 53% vs 40% ie >13% because the end of year win % included these "origin run" bumps, so probably means historically we snag an extra win on average over the period (like last year's poor team beating baby broncos after a 6:66 loss)

In saying all that we're not getting any benefit this year, the only game affected is this weekend's game and we're in a bit of a trouble ourselves missing the wrong players
 
JustVisiting82 said:
We have one player on origin duty for game one (who knows what selection changes might happen for games 2 and 3). I'd be interested to see the numbers for the other teams especially those we are playing around origin. There must be some Aus teams also contributing one or no players so I would be curious to know how many teams are actually worse affected than us. Of course some teams can also more easily cover their origin players with quality back ups too.

This info would be pretty easily gathered I just don't have time right at this moment... Open to anyone who wants to pick that up and post it of course. 😁
Click to expand...
The Roosters fans are losing their shit about the draw this year.
Apparently they have no byes in the origin period and one of the highest amount of reps of all clubs.
 
Matiunz said:
Much like the tired old ‘Big Warriors forwards’ myth ‘Warriors go on a run at Origin time’ gets trotted out this time of year.
Thought I’d have a look and see how true that really is was. For reference I included all games over the entirety of the origin period- weekend prior game one to weekend after game 3 inclusive.
Just went back the last decade to see what the trend was and obviously excluded the 2020 season where origin was played in November. I also put the season winning percentage for reference on the form for the year

2015
4W/2L/2bye (66%) vs season 40%
2016
4W/2L/1bye (66%) vs season 43%
2017
3W/3L/2bye (50%) vs season 30%
2018
3W/2L/1bye (60%) vs season 62.5%
2019
2W/2L/1D (50%) vs season 40%
2021
0W/6L (0%) vs season 33%
2022
1W/4L/1bye (20%) vs season 25%
2023
5W/2L/1bye (71%) vs season 67%
2024
2W/4L/2bye (33%) vs season 39%
Overall Origin Period wins 47%
Season win average 40%

All in all while yes a slight increase over a 10 year period but not enough to make it a significant advantage it’s made out to be. Only 4 out of the 9 seasons had a significant jump from our season average and these were clumped together over a 5 year period at the start of the period which may be the basis of the stereotype but the last 4 seasons in particular have been the opposite.
I’ll put this in the myth category
Click to expand...

Im not a maths guy but doesn't that show that yes we are much better during origin.
 
To follow up my earlier post, here is the info I was talking about.

Number of players selected for Origin game 1 for each team:
  • Panthers - 5
  • Roosters - 5
  • Storm - 4 (5*)
  • Cowboys - 4
  • Titans - 3
  • Bulldogs - 2 (3*)
  • Broncos - 2 (3*)
  • Eels - 2
  • Dolphins - 1 (2*)
  • Sea Eagles - 1 (2*)
  • Rabbitohs - 1 (2*)
  • Warriors - 1
  • Knights - 1
  • Dragons - 1
  • Raiders - 1
  • Tigers - 0
  • Sharks - 0
*The first number is for players in the 17. The number in brackets includes players named in the extended reserves - are these players usually held back from club duty in the round prior to Origin?

Warriors opposition in rounds immediately before or after an Origin game (players picked for game 1 in brackets):
  • Before G1: Vs Raiders (Hudson Young)
  • After G1: Vs Rabbitohs (Latrell Mitchell)
  • Before G2: Bye
  • After G2: Panthers (Cleary, Edwards, To'o, Yeo, Martin)
  • Before G3: Bye
  • After G3: Vs Tigers (no players picked)
We don't know how team selections might change for games 2 and 3. Based on the above it looks to me like we could get a substantial advantage in one game (Panthers) but other than that won't come up against any opposition more depleted than us during the Origin period.
 
Last edited:
JustVisiting82 said:
To follow up my earlier post, here is the info I was talking about.

Number of players selected for Origin game 1 for each team:
  • Panthers - 5
  • Roosters - 5
  • Storm - 4 (5*)
  • Cowboys - 4
  • Titans - 3
  • Bulldogs - 2 (3*)
  • Broncos - 2 (3*)
  • Eels - 2
  • Dolphins - 1 (2*)
  • Sea Eagles - 1 (2*)
  • Rabbitohs - 1 (2*)
  • Warriors - 1
  • Knights - 1
  • Dragons - 1
  • Raiders - 1
  • Tigers - 0
  • Sharks - 0
*The first number is for players in the 17. The number in brackets includes players named in the extended reserves - are these players usually held back from club duty in the round prior to Origin?

Warriors opposition in rounds immediately before or after an Origin game (players picked for game 1 in brackets):
  • Before G1: Vs Raiders (Hudson Young)
  • After G1: Vs Rabbitohs (Latrell Mitchell)
  • Before G2: Vs Sharks (no players picked)
  • After G2: Bye
  • Before G3: Bye
  • After G3: Vs Tigers (no players picked)
We don't know how team selections might change for games 2 and 3, but based on the above it looks to me like we won't be up against any opposition more depleted than us during the Origin period so won't get any advantage.
Click to expand...

Before G2 and G3 we have byes, check the dates
 
Matiunz said:
About half the time, which would suggest it’s not really as much of pattern that it’s made out to be.
Click to expand...
And unless you're going to get nit-picky and work out:
A)What teams we played during the 3 Game Origin Period in each year.
B) Which first choice players each of those teams we played were without during the 3GOP each year

it unfortunately doesn't tell us an awful lot.

I do think there needs to be a bit more fairness in terms of who has to play games without their Origin players on the one hand, but on the other, how are the NRL to know in mid-late November which teams are going to be most affected? Yes, in theory, the Panthers, Roosters, Broncos and Storm should be most affected, but injury and form (both players not being on form and players declining selection to help their team who're playing shit) might mean they're actually not.

I'd like to see an analysis of teams who are affected the most during the 3GOP and lose the least amount of points. I suspect the Panthers and Storm would be at the top of that list...
 
Storm have done this origin rodeo so many times. But this is probably the fist time that the Dogs have any serious origin contingent (though not as much as storm). On top of that, they've already got a few mid-long term injury concerns in their pack. Great opportunity to overtake them during this period. Also criminal that sharks have no origin representation.
 
Matiunz said:
Much like the tired old ‘Big Warriors forwards’ myth ‘Warriors go on a run at Origin time’ gets trotted out this time of year.
Thought I’d have a look and see how true that really is was. For reference I included all games over the entirety of the origin period- weekend prior game one to weekend after game 3 inclusive.
Just went back the last decade to see what the trend was and obviously excluded the 2020 season where origin was played in November. I also put the season winning percentage for reference on the form for the year

2015
4W/2L/2bye (66%) vs season 40%
2016
4W/2L/1bye (66%) vs season 43%
2017
3W/3L/2bye (50%) vs season 30%
2018
3W/2L/1bye (60%) vs season 62.5%
2019
2W/2L/1D (50%) vs season 40%
2021
0W/6L (0%) vs season 33%
2022
1W/4L/1bye (20%) vs season 25%
2023
5W/2L/1bye (71%) vs season 67%
2024
2W/4L/2bye (33%) vs season 39%
Overall Origin Period wins 47%
Season win average 40%

All in all while yes a slight increase over a 10 year period but not enough to make it a significant advantage it’s made out to be. Only 4 out of the 9 seasons had a significant jump from our season average and these were clumped together over a 5 year period at the start of the period which may be the basis of the stereotype but the last 4 seasons in particular have been the opposite.
I’ll put this in the myth category
Click to expand...
As others have implied, as well as our results, the top teams lose more players and lose game to upsets over origin so the table compresses.

Even if doing nothing special, lower teams get closer to the top teams due to a few upsets.
 
wizard of Tauranga said:
As others have implied, as well as our results, the top teams lose more players and lose game to upsets over origin so the table compresses.

Even if doing nothing special, lower teams get closer to the top teams due to a few upsets.
Click to expand...
Be interesting to see how this works out for this year.
Given the top 4 teams only supply less than 25% of the two 20 man squads.
Sure if will have some effect but we are not seeing Broncos and Panthers decimated to the same point
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
    Nobody is reading this thread right now.

Similar threads

Inruin
State of Origin State of Origin 2025
Replies
2
Views
987
Shogun
Shogun
WahsaurusRex
  • Poll Poll
State of Origin State of Origin 2024
74 75 76
Replies
2K
Views
89K
snake77
snake77
PrinceOfPenrose
International Super League club with close Warriors/Kiwis connection?
Replies
12
Views
3K
Teets
Back
Top Bottom