There's a bit more to rugby league than the last pass and the try scorer.
General 2024/2025 Halves Discussion
- Thread starter WahsaurusRex
- Start date
There's a bit more to rugby league than the last pass and the try scorer.
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Luka Mekeafu has his own little promo, odds on favourite to start at 6. As well as pledging his allegiance to his motherland mmmmmmSamoa 
Wrighty
Contributor
Another Trademarked Wrighty Analysis
Table 1.0
Please note I could only get 2023 stats for Moylan but I think they are representative of him anyway.
Please also note this is not a robust analysis. There are all sorts of holes in it and it is for entertainment only.
This analysis is designed to show offensive prowess and compares the three contestants for the number 6 jersey this year (CHT, Metcalf, and TMM) against two established NRL star halves who had a successful career (SJ and Maloney) and an NRL standard half in Matt Moylan.
I picked Moylan and Maloney for a specific reason. Maloney missed the most tackles in the NRL every year but made up for it on offence.
Moylan was very productive offensively but like Maloney a noted weak defender who was dropped in the off season by the sharks as his offence did not outweigh his leaky defence at least that was a reason for the dropping.
Metcalf is a weak defender who compares offensively to Moylan
Moylan Try or Try Assist in 64% of games and was dropped
Metcalf try or try assist in 68% of games
Compare to the other weak defender on the table Maloney
Maloney had a star career and had a try or try assist in 91% of games
I am going to out it out there that Metcalf gets hardly any try assists and despite scoring loads of tries his "try or try assist" percentage is comparable to the likes of Matt Moylan who was dropped.
I think for Metcalf to survive in the NRL he needs to either increase his defensive skills or radically improve his passing game and try assists and get his "try or try assists" percent much higher for teams to want to carry him long term as their starting half.
What I am saying is that as skilled as Metcalf is offensively he needs to be even more skilled offensively if he wants a long career or improve his D.
All of this means unless Metcalf has been showing improvement in his passing game in pre season then I think he will end up ranked third in this race.
Lastly check out SJs mad and insane career stats!!!
Again don't take this analysis too seriously as there are many faults with it.
Table 1.0
| Games | Tries | Try assists | Try % | Try Assist % | Either % | |
| CHT | 54 | 7 | 17 | 13.0% | 31.5% | 44.4% |
| TMM | 77 | 15 | 21 | 19.5% | 27.3% | 46.8% |
| SJ | 252 | 80 | 211 | 31.7% | 83.7% | 115.5% |
| Moylan 2023 stats only | 22 | 2 | 12 | 9.1% | 54.5% | 63.6% |
| Maloney | 247 | 64 | 161 | 25.9% | 65.2% | 91.1% |
| Metcalf | 19 | 9 | 4 | 47.4% | 21.1% | 68.4% |
Please note I could only get 2023 stats for Moylan but I think they are representative of him anyway.
Please also note this is not a robust analysis. There are all sorts of holes in it and it is for entertainment only.
This analysis is designed to show offensive prowess and compares the three contestants for the number 6 jersey this year (CHT, Metcalf, and TMM) against two established NRL star halves who had a successful career (SJ and Maloney) and an NRL standard half in Matt Moylan.
I picked Moylan and Maloney for a specific reason. Maloney missed the most tackles in the NRL every year but made up for it on offence.
Moylan was very productive offensively but like Maloney a noted weak defender who was dropped in the off season by the sharks as his offence did not outweigh his leaky defence at least that was a reason for the dropping.
Metcalf is a weak defender who compares offensively to Moylan
Moylan Try or Try Assist in 64% of games and was dropped
Metcalf try or try assist in 68% of games
Compare to the other weak defender on the table Maloney
Maloney had a star career and had a try or try assist in 91% of games
I am going to out it out there that Metcalf gets hardly any try assists and despite scoring loads of tries his "try or try assist" percentage is comparable to the likes of Matt Moylan who was dropped.
I think for Metcalf to survive in the NRL he needs to either increase his defensive skills or radically improve his passing game and try assists and get his "try or try assists" percent much higher for teams to want to carry him long term as their starting half.
What I am saying is that as skilled as Metcalf is offensively he needs to be even more skilled offensively if he wants a long career or improve his D.
All of this means unless Metcalf has been showing improvement in his passing game in pre season then I think he will end up ranked third in this race.
Lastly check out SJs mad and insane career stats!!!
Again don't take this analysis too seriously as there are many faults with it.
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tough one with metcalf,
small sample size and here in a time where the team was humming anyway.
i don’t think any but possibly games were won because he was on the field.
for all his speed and raw skill i think what he offered more than anything was unpredictability and defenders gave him that extra half second.
Wrighty
Contributor
Good spotting on the small sample size issue. One of many faults with the analysis.
Metcalf scored many back breaking tries and made the opposition give up otherwise we would have endured a lot of those last minute come backs by the other team aided and abbetted by the refs who like close games,,
Interesting analysis!
Couple of points
- with SJ being so dominant above average, you would expect his halves partner to below average
- highlights the improvement needed in CHT and why he hasn’t been able to nail a spot until now
- TMM has spent a lot of time at fullback so his stats could be skewed?
Still fascinating - are there stats for the likes of Foran, Dylan Brown and Hughes as comparable kiwis? And how does SJ compare with the likes of Johns, Cleary, Thurston, etc? That combined try/ try assist really highlights a players attacking value!
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Have you put together defensive stats to back up your view on Meltcalf’s weak defence?
Agree, pet peeve of mine, when watching games the commentators inevitably get the players names mixed up, come on it's their job to get it right first time, so it annoys the heck out of me. I reckon they should put the players names on the of the players on the back of their jerseys, make it easier all a round, also it'll be cool to get a jersey of my favourite player.
Who is he? Is he with the wahs?Luka Mekeafu has his own little promo, odds on favourite to start at 6. As well as pledging his allegiance to his motherland mmmmmmSamoa
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Defence
Contributor
I thought it was a bit harsh grouping him in with Maloney and moylan- those two couldn’t tackle a fish supper.
People have shown stats that he’s as good as anyone else but he doesn’t pass the eyecrometer test for me.
Example - half ‘a’ is a good defender so his inside and outside hang off him so al 3 are 90% defenders
Player b is weak and his inside and outside keep a step closer to him to protect him. Player b tackles at 95% because he’s always in a 2 man tackle but his inside and outside men drop to 80% tacklers as they leave space.
In player a’s example his stats are lower but his edges defence is higher. Player b’s stats are higher but his edge is lower. Sort of like a player can be a high try scorer but a low try assist player - it’s how you fit in a structure as much as an individual for both attack and defence.
Sio which player is TMM, CHT and Metcalf? Are defensive stats for 1/3s of the field available by player?
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Wrighty
Contributor
It’s because of what wizards describes that tackle efficiency statistics often don’t reflect defensive abilities.
I am proposing that total successful tackles made per game is a better indicator.
I will post some numbers tonight on defensive stats and also some more offensive numbers as I also want to see how Dylan brown in particular stacks up offensively.
Dylan Brown is exceptional defensively, I’d be very surprised if he isn’t the best in the comp for halves. However if you can find try cause stats then that would be interesting. In terms of where opposition teams scored their points against us last season, our left edge defence was far superior to our right - however Metcalf would be a combo of left and middle field defence.
Just a quick look at the last season played for each player, adjusted for minutes played per game.
Average tackles per game has TMM out in front on 21.1 with a tackle efficiency of 89.6%, followed by Metcalf with 18.0 tackles per game & a tackle efficiency of 85.9%, then CHT with an average 15.8 tackles per game & an 84.4% efficiency.
I’d still like to see some try cause & line break cause stats if they were around. However on the data we do have, Metcalf doesn’t stand out as a significantly worse defender than the other 2. I wonder how much is perception rather than reality?
Average tackles per game has TMM out in front on 21.1 with a tackle efficiency of 89.6%, followed by Metcalf with 18.0 tackles per game & a tackle efficiency of 85.9%, then CHT with an average 15.8 tackles per game & an 84.4% efficiency.
I’d still like to see some try cause & line break cause stats if they were around. However on the data we do have, Metcalf doesn’t stand out as a significantly worse defender than the other 2. I wonder how much is perception rather than reality?
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NRL Try Location Analysis 2024 | NRL Stats
Discover the key NRL trends and insights with our comprehensive Try Location Analysis for NRL 2023.
team comparisons
Yeah I saw this, was what I was referring to with the left edge defence being far superior to the right.NRL Try Location Analysis 2024 | NRL Stats
Discover the key NRL trends and insights with our comprehensive Try Location Analysis for NRL 2023.www.statsinsider.com.au
team comparisons
far superior?
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Haha no actually!! I hadn’t switched from tries scored to tries conceded, terrible attention to detail. Ok switch from “far superior” to “very slightly worse”.
That tries scored/created looks real bad for the left edge now doesn't it when you realise its not defensive numbers
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