While I have no time for this government, I do hope youāre right because I need work to start coming in again. I do have concerns though that Iāve read a few of these post from you now and it feels like we take a step forward followed by a few steps back
Politics š³ļø NZ Politics
- Thread starter wizard of Tauranga
- Start date
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More details below;
GDP figures for the June 2025 quarter reveal a mixed economic performance across the listed economies.
USA
: The U.S. economy's real GDP grew by 0.8% in the June 2025 quarter. This is the quarter-on-quarter equivalent of the widely reported 3.3% annualized rate. The primary drivers were a sharp decrease in imports and an increase in consumer spending. UK
: The UK's GDP saw a rise of 0.3% in the June 2025 quarter, driven mainly by the services and construction sectors. Australia
: Australia's economy experienced a positive change, growing by 0.6%. This growth was primarily fueled by robust household spending. New Zealand
: New Zealand's GDP contracted, falling by 0.9% for the quarter. This was a broad-based decline with negative contributions from multiple sectors, including manufacturing and construction. OECD Average: The OECD average GDP growth for the June 2025 quarter was 0.4%. This represented a rebound from the previous quarter's 0.2% growth, largely driven by the U.S. performance.
My sources are direct discussions with the coal face. To be fair, itās very mixed out there - our regions are going well, dairy really strong obviously, Auckland & Wellington doing it tough. However the industry that is probably the best broader economic indicator that I chat with started to see slight positive growth from around April. Hope you start to see a bit of growth soon in your segment!!
NZWarriors.com
So how did New Zealandās supposed 0.9% growth in the March quarter compare?More details below;
GDP figures for the June 2025 quarter reveal a mixed economic performance across the listed economies.
USA
UK
Australia
New Zealand
OECD Average: The OECD average GDP growth for the June 2025 quarter was 0.4%. This represented a rebound from the previous quarter's 0.2% growth, largely driven by the U.S. performance.
I agree mostly with Key. We had rampant free money during covid, leading record employment and domestic inflation. Couple that with international inflation, and we had a severely overcooked economy.
Inflation was out of control, and so the RBNZ pumped the OCR up to bring it within band. The problem was that a lot of the cause of our inflation was tradeable, so the OCR muted the non-tradeables, but didn't have much impact on the tradeables. Plus the CPI measures are always backwards looking. So CPI stayed relatively high, and the RBNZ kept the OCR high too long.
They should have started a bit earlier. But their remit is to stay the course until they are confident of CPI being 1-3%, so they DGAF
Now inflation is lower, they have been cutting to rebalance, but the impacts of the high OCR have been taking effect on employment an domestic demand.
The economy is clearly weaker than anticipated. The RBNZ will do its part in getting things going again by dropping the OCR further.
The problems for the government are:
- The rainy day fund ($55bn) was spent by the last government, and
- Redeploying funds (or borrowing more funds) is against their policies
Unemployment was always going to get over 5% - it was signalled pretty clearly (an article from Jul-24 is below, for example)
Interest rate cuts to arrive sooner than expected - ANZ
New Zealand's biggest bank believes interest rate cuts will arrive sooner than it previously expected. The ANZ Bank has changed its official cash...
www.odt.co.nz
One of the problems now for Willis, is that she is going to need to convince NZ to start spending money again. Not easy when her main tool is messaging, and not stimulus
I agree, partially. However, the April to June period is typically very light for dairy. Cows dry off during this period, so it's a small base
New Zealand (NZ)
New Zealand's economy has had a particularly challenging time, with several quarters of contraction.
Q1 2023: 0.8% growth
Q2 2023: 2.7% growth
Q3 2023: 0.7% growth
Q4 2023: 1.0% growth
Q1 2024: 1.3% growth
Q2 2024: -0.5% contraction
Q3 2024: -1.6% contraction
Q4 2024: -1.3% contraction
Q1 2025: 0.8% growth
Q2 2025: -0.9% contraction
United Kingdom (UK)
The UK has shown a pattern of very low or negative growth followed by mild rebounds.
Q1 2023: 0.1% growth
Q2 2023: -0.1% contraction
Q3 2023: 0.2% growth
Q4 2023: -0.3% contraction
Q1 2024: 0.6% growth
Q2 2024: 0.2% growth
Q3 2024: 0.3% growth
Q4 2024: 0.1% growth
Q1 2025: 0.7% growth
Q2 2025: 0.3% growth
United States (USA)
The US economy has been notably resilient, despite a recent slowdown.
Q1 2023: 1.7% growth
Q2 2023: 2.1% growth
Q3 2023: 4.9% growth
Q4 2023: 3.4% growth
Q1 2024: 1.4% growth
Q2 2024: 2.1% growth
Q3 2024: 0.8% growth
Q4 2024: 0.4% growth
Q1 2025: -0.5% contraction
Q2 2025: 0.8% growth
Australia
Australia's growth has been moderate and slowing, with a recent acceleration.
Q1 2023: 0.2% growth
Q2 2023: 0.5% growth
Q3 2023: 0.2% growth
Q4 2023: 0.6% growth
Q1 2024: 0.1% growth
Q2 2024: 0.3% growth
Q3 2024: 0.6% growth
Q4 2024: 0.3% growth
Q1 2025: 0.3% growth
Q2 2025: 0.6% growth
NZWarriors.com
I agree mostly with Key. We had rampant free money during covid, leading record employment and domestic inflation. Couple that with international inflation, and we had a severely overcooked economy.
Inflation was out of control, and so the RBNZ pumped the OCR up to bring it within band. The problem was that a lot of the cause of our inflation was tradeable, so the OCR muted the non-tradeables, but didn't have much impact on the tradeables. Plus the CPI measures are always backwards looking. So CPI stayed relatively high, and the RBNZ kept the OCR high too long.
They should have started a bit earlier. But their remit is to stay the course until they are confident of CPI being 1-3%, so they DGAF
Now inflation is lower, they have been cutting to rebalance, but the impacts of the high OCR have been taking effect on employment an domestic demand.
The economy is clearly weaker than anticipated. The RBNZ will do its part in getting things going again by dropping the OCR further.
The problems for the government are:
The fact that we are in an economic dip was pretty clear during covid when everyone got drunk on the free cash. It was always going to correct. It's the depth of the dip that is the surprise.
- The rainy day fund ($55bn) was spent by the last government, and
- Redeploying funds (or borrowing more funds) is against their policies
Unemployment was always going to get over 5% - it was signalled pretty clearly (an article from Jul-24 is below, for example)
Interest rate cuts to arrive sooner than expected - ANZ
New Zealand's biggest bank believes interest rate cuts will arrive sooner than it previously expected. The ANZ Bank has changed its official cash...
One of the problems now for Willis, is that she is going to need to convince NZ to start spending money again. Not easy when her main tool is messaging, and not stimulus
I agree, partially. However, the April to June period is typically very light for dairy. Cows dry off during this period, so it's a small base
Since Christopher Luxon became Prime Minister of New Zealand in late November 2023, here are the percentage changes in real GDP for New Zealand and other major economies, based on quarterly data up to the most recent available figures (Q2 2025).
Quarterly GDP Growth since Q4 2023
New Zealand:
Q4 2023: +0.2%
Q1 2024: +0.1%
Q2 2024: -0.9%
Q3 2024: -1.1%
Q4 2024: +0.4%
Q1 2025: +0.9%
Q2 2025: -0.9%
Cumulative Change (Q4 2023 to Q2 2025): -1.3%
United States:
Q4 2023: +0.8%
Q1 2024: +1.2%
Q2 2024: +0.9%
Q3 2024: +1.1%
Q4 2024: +0.6%
Q1 2025: -0.5%
Q2 2025: +0.8%
Cumulative Change (Q4 2023 to Q2 2025): +5.1%
United Kingdom:
Q4 2023: +0.1%
Q1 2024: +0.2%
Q2 2024: +0.1%
Q3 2024: +0.3%
Q4 2024: +0.4%
Q1 2025: +0.2%
Q2 2025: +0.3%
Cumulative Change (Q4 2023 to Q2 2025): +1.6%
Australia:
Q4 2023: +0.1%
Q1 2024: +0.2%
Q2 2024: +0.1%
Q3 2024: +0.3%
Q4 2024: +0.6%
Q1 2025: +0.3%
Q2 2025: +0.6%
Cumulative Change (Q4 2023 to Q2 2025): +2.2%
OECD Average:
Q4 2023: +0.4%
Q1 2024: +0.4%
Q2 2024: +0.5%
Q3 2024: +0.4%
Q4 2024: +0.5%
Q1 2025: +0.2%
Q2 2025: +0.4%
Cumulative Change (Q4 2023 to Q2 2025): +2.8%
Summary:
Since November 2023, New Zealand's economy has experienced a cumulative decline in real GDP, while the other listed economies and the OECD average have grown. The United States has seen the most significant growth, followed by Australia and the UK.
can you do the per capita GDP numbers?
Yes weāre all aware of that, however if we take the numbers at face value then New Zealand was the best performing economy in the March quarterā¦ now that is absolute rubbish, but no more so than the -0.9% print in the June quarter.
NZWarriors.com
NZ per capita GDP fell 1.1% in the quarter to June, so productivity fell at a worse rate that GDP itself.
More detail;
Based on the most recent available data, here are the percentage changes in GDP per capita for each country and the OECD average since late 2023.
GDP Per Capita Percentage Changes
United Kingdom
: The UK saw the largest increase, with a 11.09% rise in its nominal GDP per capita from $49,464 in 2023 to an estimated $54,950 in 2025.United States
: The US experienced a significant increase of 7.66%, with its nominal GDP per capita rising from $82,769 in 2023 to an estimated $89,105 in 2025.Australia
: Australia's GDP per capita saw a minor decline of 0.42%, falling from $64,821 in 2023 to an estimated $64,550 in 2025. This indicates that population growth outpaced economic growth during this period.New Zealand
: New Zealand saw a decrease of 4.46% in its GDP per capita, from $48,281 in 2023 to an estimated $46,130 in 2025.thanks mateMore detail;
Based on the most recent available data, here are the percentage changes in GDP per capita for each country and the OECD average since late 2023.
GDP Per Capita Percentage Changes
United Kingdom
United States
Australia
New Zealand
NZWarriors.com
Do you have any facts on the statement that this government has borrowed more?Bad news Wiz. Apart from the fact you're quoting thin air. This government has borrowed much more.
And it's a sad day for you lot when I'm quoting the Taxpayers Union
Governmentās Borrowing Binge Piles onto Trillion-Dollar National Debt
Championing Value For Money From Every Tax Dollarwww.taxpayers.org.nz
Eeewww. I need a shower after doing that.
I'm genuinely interested. Before the pandemic, I was listening to Grant Robertson being interviewed on their plans to borrow and invest in infrastructure. At the time, they had favourable borrowing conditions. Then COVID hit, and I heard him being interviewed again and the money they borrowed was going towards the response.
During covid they borrowed a lot more as part of the response.
During and after covid there were articles on how much the response cost, how long it would take to pay off etc.
Now your saying within 2 years this government has borrowed more than that?
There is a difference between continuing to borrow money and essentially doubling what Labour borrowed which is what you are stating with your response to his comment.
Are there any figures for this?
Here you go;
Year Ended June Net Core Crown Debt (% of GDP)
2017 12.2%
2018 10.3%
2019 9.3%
2020 15.3%
2021 15.3%
2022 19.7%
2023 21.0%
2024 21.5%
2025 42.7%
Now remind me, what happened in late 2023 again?
We made the prelim finals and got beaten by Penrith?
NZWarriors.com
And yet we keep on hearing we should either borrow our way out of the recession, which would only increase the Core Crown Debt even more, or tax our way out (by new taxes such as a wealth tax or CGT or reversing tax cuts) to reduce the Core Crown Debt. But, to reduce the money in the economy by taxing people more to use that money to pay down debt would still mean less money in the economy leading to less growth so a lower or negative GDP meaning an even longer recession.
While I don't think Willis has the answer (other than praying that the farming industry and exports bring us out), I have even less faith in the "raise taxes and damn the torpedoes" financial plan of the Greens and mÄori Parties.... and god knows what Labour is planning because they certainly aren't saying.
Basically. I don't trust any of them to have the slightest idea how to get us out..... but they sure know how to blame everyone else... it's the previous government's fault, it's the riches' fault, it's the current government's fault, it's Trump and his tariffs, it's dairy prices, it's food prices, it's rates, it's rent, it's COVID, it's the RBNZ, it's greed, it's envy, it's a million and one other things.
Here's an idea.... if these idiots in Wellington spent half the time, they spend blaming each other actually solving problems, we wouldn't be in this friggen mess!!!!!
facts
Out from behind the paywall now, and bugger, not a mention of privatisation (unless energy security is a neo lib code for privatisation) ....Can't read this (yet, it's paywalled but free in a few days), the lede says it all. Appalling we're paying so much, this is due mostly to neoliberal driven privatisation. This government will ignore this failure for ordinary New Zealanders and seek to push for further privatisation.
View attachment 14505
Minister foreshadows 'fundamental' power market reform
Exclusive new research shows NZ households spent $800m more on energy in 2024 than in 2022, as the Govt considers a total overhaul of the power market.newsroom.co.nz
Minister foreshadows āfundamentalā power market reform
Exclusive new research shows Kiwi households spent $800m more on energy in 2024 than in 2022, as the Government considers a total overhaul of the power marketThe Government is gearing up for major reforms to the electricity market, as new research shows household energy bills rose $800 million over two years.
Energy Minister Simon Watts says the coalition parties are still working through their response to a review of the market but plan to announce next steps by the end of the month. The review, by Australian firm Frontier Economics, will be released alongside the Governmentās response.
Although final steps had not yet been decided, Watts says the changes will be more than tweaks. āIn the context of reform of the energy market, I think this is going to be fundamental reform. Probably the last time there was a reform of significant scale was in the early 90s. Weāre pretty clear in the context that the changes that weāre looking to make will have a fundamental impact on the market, in a positive way around energy security and affordability.ā
Thatās a significant change from Wattsā comments to the Sunday Star Times a month ago, in which he talked up the value of a āsurgicalā intervention.
The news comes as research shows household energy costs were $800 million higher in 2024 than they were two years earlier.
A report from the Green Building Council looked at the potential savings for households and the economy of switching from gas-powered space and water heating to heat pumps. The report found households could save $1.5 billion a year from electrifying these appliances, based on current energy prices.
Further analysis conducted by the council and provided exclusively to Newsroom also showed how energy prices have skyrocketed in recent years. In 2021, households spent a total of $4.4 billion on electricity and gas, according to data from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment. The next year saw only a slight rise, to $4.5b.
Prices then jumped significantly in 2023 to $4.8 billion, before an enormous leap to $5.2 billion in the 2024 calendar year. Residential electricity and gas spends in the March 2025 quarter continued the trend, landing $60 million higher than the previous year and $257 million above March 2021.
āFamilies have seen their household energy bill rise by over $400 a year on average since 2023, compounding the cost-of-living crisis,ā Andrew Eagles, the Green Building Councilās chief executive, said.
āThe Government could make a real dent in the cost of living by assisting families with the cost of installing heat pumps and hot water heat pumps. That would also free up much-needed gas and electricity for manufacturers.ā
Dr Keith Turner, a long-time energy market expert who served as the first chief executive of Meridian, played a role in the sector reforms of the 1980s and 1990s, and most recently finished up after three years as the chair of Transpower, said fundamental reform of the market was needed.
āIt is pretty clear to me that you wonāt get a fundamental change unless you do some fundamental reform. If Simon Watts is saying this reform thatās coming is going to be fundamental, that is whatās necessary to really address the long-term competitive advantage of New Zealand,ā he told Newsroom.
āWhen I came into this industry in the 60s and 70s, electricity prices were a significant competitive advantage to New Zealand. We didnāt suffer quite as badly as many other countries did when the oil shocks occurred because we had indigenous energy. We probably have lost that competitive advantage. If this Government really wanted to boost economic productivity, the one thing that will really do it is significantly lowering wholesale prices.ā
Turner offered up four ideas for reform, graduating from tinkering to wholesale structural change. They included a regulated market making of long-term, shaped hedges, which he said would only be a short-term fix; the adoption of Australian-style consumer-funded long-term energy services agreements; reversing some of the changes of the 1990s to align with the sector reform blueprint produced the decade prior; and the creation of a single-buyer wholesale market to bring prices down through central planning.
āElectricity wholesale prices are well above where they should be. I think weāre not seeing enough investment in new generation, particularly from independent investors who have been doing a lot of exploration, a lot of development, but havenāt been able to get their projects up,ā Turner said.
āI think thereās pretty strong evidence looking at the value of companies that thereās a fair amount of transfer of wealth going on from the consumer to the gentailers.ā
Most of the options proposed by industry analysts for anything approaching āfundamentalā reform would disadvantage the incumbents ā the gentailers. Watts told reporters he hadnāt consulted with them on the proposals and was instead focused on getting agreement from coalition partners.
āThereās going to always be differing views on the outcomes, but I think at the end of the day, my job is to make sure that weāve got energy affordability and energy security for New Zealanders and New Zealandersā views are the views that count for me.ā
Minister foreshadows 'fundamental' power market reform
Exclusive new research shows NZ households spent $800m more on energy in 2024 than in 2022, as the Govt considers a total overhaul of the power market.
newsroom.co.nz
NZWarriors.com
But the coalition have extended and deepened the (artificial) recession through their utter ineptness and neoliberal strategies.
If this was Labour or the left doing this, I'd have to wear earplugs to drown out the shrieks and howls from the right.
Not gonna aruge either side here. But it always feels a bit odd with conversations around debt growth and taxation/borrowing. People tend to always look at it as if borrowing more was the issue and borrowing less is the only soultion. Where as if GDP goes up without any decrease in taxation then the debt would also go down.
So in my eyes debt went up under labour because they borrowed a lot of money to spend on jobs/infrastucture, so our gdp keept going up without lowered taxation. So debt still substantually increased but there was mitgating factors.
Debt has also gone up by just as much (percentage wise) while NACT has been in power. But they have borrowed siginficantlly less, and cut taxation and jobs. Meaning less income for the goverment, so it still resulted in the debt going up.
Doesn't seem like any kiwi in palarment at the moment is good at managing the debt.
So in my eyes debt went up under labour because they borrowed a lot of money to spend on jobs/infrastucture, so our gdp keept going up without lowered taxation. So debt still substantually increased but there was mitgating factors.
Debt has also gone up by just as much (percentage wise) while NACT has been in power. But they have borrowed siginficantlly less, and cut taxation and jobs. Meaning less income for the goverment, so it still resulted in the debt going up.
Doesn't seem like any kiwi in palarment at the moment is good at managing the debt.
