Politics 🗳️ NZ Politics

[Lord Gnome of Mooloolaba]

Not gonna aruge either side here. But it always feels a bit odd with conversations around debt growth and taxation/borrowing. People tend to always look at it as if borrowing more was the issue and borrowing less is the only soultion. Where as if GDP goes up without any decrease in taxation then the debt would also go down.

So in my eyes debt went up under labour because they borrowed a lot of money to spend on jobs/infrastucture, so our gdp keept going up without lowered taxation. So debt still substantually increased but there was mitgating factors.

Debt has also gone up by just as much (percentage wise) while NACT has been in power. But they have borrowed siginficantlly less, and cut taxation and jobs. Meaning less income for the goverment, so it still resulted in the debt going up.

Doesn't seem like any kiwi in palarment at the moment is good at managing the debt.

Scroll up mate, you've made yourself look foolish there.

 

[roguei]

Scroll up mate, you've made yourself look foolish there.

Ah i did not, only going of recent memory when i had last looked at the numbers last year.
Is that 2025 number real? Because 24 to 25 being a jump from 21.5 to 42.7 is almost doubling the the ratio. Which is beyond insane, and would i assume require mass unemployment to lose that amount of revenue. But i guess our unemployment numbers have a preasure relief valve. Where if you cannot find a job and you have some amount of saving you will just leave to aus. Especially if you have a degree. But i'd have to do some more resaerch to from a opinon because that is ludicrous if true.

 

[Lord Gnome of Mooloolaba]

Ah i did not, only going of recent memory when i had last looked at the numbers last year.
Is that 2025 number real? Because 24 to 25 being a jump from 21.5 to 42.7 is almost doubling the the ratio. Which is beyond insane, and would i assume require mass unemployment to lose that amount of revenue. But i guess our unemployment numbers have a preasure relief valve. Where if you cannot find a job and you have some amount of saving you will just leave to aus. Especially if you have a degree. But i'd have to do some more resaerch to from a opinon because that is ludicrous if true.

Knock yourself out mate

 

[defensivebomb]

Here you go;

Year Ended June Net Core Crown Debt (% of GDP)
2017 12.2%
2018 10.3%
2019 9.3%
2020 15.3%
2021 15.3%
2022 19.7%
2023 21.0%
2024 21.5%
2025 42.7%

Now remind me, what happened in late 2023

I don't quite agree with those numbers, nor the conclusion. Here are the numbers from the Treasury's last official update

Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2025​

[​

https://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/efu/budget-economic-and-fiscal-update-2025
Figures are all for 12 months, year ended 30 June.

The important thing is to note the debt increase year on year. The last government got net debt up to $155bn, averaging a $24bn increase (year on year) annually. They were a freight train out of control. National's years (2024 and 2025F) have an increase of $20b (2024) and only $10b (2025). When you consider $10bn is roughly the interest cost, it means National has cut spending down significantly, to be only $10b up (2024) and neutral (2025). A lot of the 2024 increase is due to one off costs to exit programs (e.g. redundancies, lease cancellations, etc). It takes a while for the cost cutting to take effect, after cancellation payments etc. Cancel the program this year, and next year we won't have the ongoing annual costs

Yes, debt is high right now. It's like finally wrestling control of your credit card off your teenage daughter, after she's gone on a spending spree. You have a period of time where the balance grows larger before you get it back under control.

I can't think of anyone that thinks, or feels, that the government spending more than their predecessors.

Having said all of that, I dont believe in saving your money out of a recession. So the govt needs to get out the chequebook soon to start stimulating and helping the rbnz out

 

[Mr. Brownstone]

I don't quite agree with those numbers, nor the conclusion. Here are the numbers from the Treasury's last official update

Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2025​

Figure 2.13 - Net core Crown debt
Source: The Treasury
Year ending 30 June	Net core Crown debt Increase yoy	Net core Crown debt	Net core Crown debt as a % of nominal GDP
	$billions	$billions	% of nominal GDP
2020		26.2
2021	18.71	29.7
2022	26.79	35.2
2023	26.40	38.7
2024	20.19	41.7
2025	10.18	42.7	forecast
2026	14.54	43.9	forecast
2027	18.25	45.7	forecast
2028	11.81	46.0	forecast
2029	8.27	45.5	forecast

[​

https://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/efu/budget-economic-and-fiscal-update-2025
Figures are all for 12 months, year ended 30 June.

The important thing is to note the debt increase year on year. The last government got net debt up to $155bn, averaging a $24bn increase (year on year) annually. They were a freight train out of control. National's years (2024 and 2025F) have an increase of $20b (2024) and only $10b (2025). When you consider $10bn is roughly the interest cost, it means National has cut spending down significantly, to be only $10b up (2024) and neutral (2025). A lot of the 2024 increase is due to one off costs to exit programs (e.g. redundancies, lease cancellations, etc). It takes a while for the cost cutting to take effect, after cancellation payments etc. Cancel the program this year, and next year we won't have the ongoing annual costs

Yes, debt is high right now. It's like finally wrestling control of your credit card off your teenage daughter, after she's gone on a spending spree. You have a period of time where the balance grows larger before you get it back under control.

I can't think of anyone that thinks, or feels, that the government spending more than their predecessors.

Having said all of that, I dont believe in saving your money out of a recession. So the govt needs to get out the chequebook soon to start stimulating and helping the rbnz out

Nice work, great analysis! Not holding my breath for a rebuttal.

 

[defensivebomb]

Nice work, great analysis! Not holding my breath for a rebuttal.

note - i have had to repaste the numbers as a picture as the earlier table was coming out all wonky

 

[defensivebomb]

One of the areas that I am coming round to is that the govt aren’t as great at managing the economy as they say they are. Certainly not as bad as the alternative, but I do agree they have disappointed thus far

 

[MaybeTop8]

One of the areas that I am coming round to is that the govt aren’t as great at managing the economy as they say they are. Certainly not as bad as the alternative, but I do agree they have disappointed thus far

Jaysis take the blinkers off - they're a disaster!!! Even the taxpayers union are against them (mind you they want to go far further right)

 

[Worried2Death]

One of the areas that I am coming round to is that the govt aren’t as great at managing the economy as they say they are. Certainly not as bad as the alternative, but I do agree they have disappointed thus far

Going to see to new Jacinda movie?

 

[defensivebomb]

Jaysis take the blinkers off - they're a disaster!!! Even the taxpayers union are against them (mind you they want to go far further right)

well I’m not going to defend them this time. They really need to kick a few goals from here

It did annoy me the other day when they tried to claim better inflation (which is the RBNZ’s job), as well as patting themselves on the back for attracting big shows. Sign a few big shows, then make an announcement. Don’t make the announcement about how you’re trying to get big shows

 

[defensivebomb]

Going to see to new Jacinda movie?

No, but I am going to relive my youth with the new Naked Gun tomorrow!!!

 

[Rick O’Shay]

Going to see to new Jacinda movie?

Possibly, only because it's on a Tuesday here and that's Gold Card/Grab a Granny night plus you can get a wine with your ice cream

 

[Worried2Death]

No, but I am going to relive my youth with the new Naked Gun tomorrow!!!

Should be a few nostalgic laughs, and don't call me Jacinta

 

[Rick O’Shay]

MICHAEL BASSETT: THE SECOND DONALD TRUMP DISASTER

Fourteen months ago the world watched with increasing unease as American President Joe Biden showed everyone that he was in no fit state to contemplate another term in the White House. Today, many around the world are asking whether Biden’s successor, Donald Trump, has reached the same stage in...

www.bassettbrashandhide.com

For those that thought Big Mike was Right Wing apparatchik

 

[Worried2Death]

MICHAEL BASSETT: THE SECOND DONALD TRUMP DISASTER

Fourteen months ago the world watched with increasing unease as American President Joe Biden showed everyone that he was in no fit state to contemplate another term in the White House. Today, many around the world are asking whether Biden’s successor, Donald Trump, has reached the same stage in...

www.bassettbrashandhide.com

For those that thought Big Mike was Right Wing apparatchik

He's triggered the ballhead community

 

[Noitall]

He's triggered the ballhead community

View attachment 14526

Raw hide

 

[Worried2Death]

Raw hide

That's also his grinder profile

 

[Noitall]

That's also his grinder profile

 

[Worried2Death]

Atlas network's own Nureyev.

 

[Inruin]

That's also his grinder profile

All your secrets coming out now aren't they.... Julie Andrews three ways, being in black male rings, grinder... The next revelation will be????