While I have no time for this government, I do hope you’re right because I need work to start coming in again. I do have concerns though that I’ve read a few of these post from you now and it feels like we take a step forward followed by a few steps back
Politics 🗳️ NZ Politics
- Thread starter wizard of Tauranga
- Start date
NZWarriors.com
More details below;
GDP figures for the June 2025 quarter reveal a mixed economic performance across the listed economies.
USA
: The U.S. economy's real GDP grew by 0.8% in the June 2025 quarter. This is the quarter-on-quarter equivalent of the widely reported 3.3% annualized rate. The primary drivers were a sharp decrease in imports and an increase in consumer spending. UK
: The UK's GDP saw a rise of 0.3% in the June 2025 quarter, driven mainly by the services and construction sectors. Australia
: Australia's economy experienced a positive change, growing by 0.6%. This growth was primarily fueled by robust household spending. New Zealand
: New Zealand's GDP contracted, falling by 0.9% for the quarter. This was a broad-based decline with negative contributions from multiple sectors, including manufacturing and construction. OECD Average: The OECD average GDP growth for the June 2025 quarter was 0.4%. This represented a rebound from the previous quarter's 0.2% growth, largely driven by the U.S. performance.
My sources are direct discussions with the coal face. To be fair, it’s very mixed out there - our regions are going well, dairy really strong obviously, Auckland & Wellington doing it tough. However the industry that is probably the best broader economic indicator that I chat with started to see slight positive growth from around April. Hope you start to see a bit of growth soon in your segment!!
NZWarriors.com
So how did New Zealand’s supposed 0.9% growth in the March quarter compare?More details below;
GDP figures for the June 2025 quarter reveal a mixed economic performance across the listed economies.
USA
UK
Australia
New Zealand
OECD Average: The OECD average GDP growth for the June 2025 quarter was 0.4%. This represented a rebound from the previous quarter's 0.2% growth, largely driven by the U.S. performance.
I agree mostly with Key. We had rampant free money during covid, leading record employment and domestic inflation. Couple that with international inflation, and we had a severely overcooked economy.
Inflation was out of control, and so the RBNZ pumped the OCR up to bring it within band. The problem was that a lot of the cause of our inflation was tradeable, so the OCR muted the non-tradeables, but didn't have much impact on the tradeables. Plus the CPI measures are always backwards looking. So CPI stayed relatively high, and the RBNZ kept the OCR high too long.
They should have started a bit earlier. But their remit is to stay the course until they are confident of CPI being 1-3%, so they DGAF
Now inflation is lower, they have been cutting to rebalance, but the impacts of the high OCR have been taking effect on employment an domestic demand.
The economy is clearly weaker than anticipated. The RBNZ will do its part in getting things going again by dropping the OCR further.
The problems for the government are:
- The rainy day fund ($55bn) was spent by the last government, and
- Redeploying funds (or borrowing more funds) is against their policies
Unemployment was always going to get over 5% - it was signalled pretty clearly (an article from Jul-24 is below, for example)
Interest rate cuts to arrive sooner than expected - ANZ
New Zealand's biggest bank believes interest rate cuts will arrive sooner than it previously expected. The ANZ Bank has changed its official cash...
www.odt.co.nz
One of the problems now for Willis, is that she is going to need to convince NZ to start spending money again. Not easy when her main tool is messaging, and not stimulus
I agree, partially. However, the April to June period is typically very light for dairy. Cows dry off during this period, so it's a small base
New Zealand (NZ)
New Zealand's economy has had a particularly challenging time, with several quarters of contraction.
Q1 2023: 0.8% growth
Q2 2023: 2.7% growth
Q3 2023: 0.7% growth
Q4 2023: 1.0% growth
Q1 2024: 1.3% growth
Q2 2024: -0.5% contraction
Q3 2024: -1.6% contraction
Q4 2024: -1.3% contraction
Q1 2025: 0.8% growth
Q2 2025: -0.9% contraction
United Kingdom (UK)
The UK has shown a pattern of very low or negative growth followed by mild rebounds.
Q1 2023: 0.1% growth
Q2 2023: -0.1% contraction
Q3 2023: 0.2% growth
Q4 2023: -0.3% contraction
Q1 2024: 0.6% growth
Q2 2024: 0.2% growth
Q3 2024: 0.3% growth
Q4 2024: 0.1% growth
Q1 2025: 0.7% growth
Q2 2025: 0.3% growth
United States (USA)
The US economy has been notably resilient, despite a recent slowdown.
Q1 2023: 1.7% growth
Q2 2023: 2.1% growth
Q3 2023: 4.9% growth
Q4 2023: 3.4% growth
Q1 2024: 1.4% growth
Q2 2024: 2.1% growth
Q3 2024: 0.8% growth
Q4 2024: 0.4% growth
Q1 2025: -0.5% contraction
Q2 2025: 0.8% growth
Australia
Australia's growth has been moderate and slowing, with a recent acceleration.
Q1 2023: 0.2% growth
Q2 2023: 0.5% growth
Q3 2023: 0.2% growth
Q4 2023: 0.6% growth
Q1 2024: 0.1% growth
Q2 2024: 0.3% growth
Q3 2024: 0.6% growth
Q4 2024: 0.3% growth
Q1 2025: 0.3% growth
Q2 2025: 0.6% growth
NZWarriors.com
I agree mostly with Key. We had rampant free money during covid, leading record employment and domestic inflation. Couple that with international inflation, and we had a severely overcooked economy.
Inflation was out of control, and so the RBNZ pumped the OCR up to bring it within band. The problem was that a lot of the cause of our inflation was tradeable, so the OCR muted the non-tradeables, but didn't have much impact on the tradeables. Plus the CPI measures are always backwards looking. So CPI stayed relatively high, and the RBNZ kept the OCR high too long.
They should have started a bit earlier. But their remit is to stay the course until they are confident of CPI being 1-3%, so they DGAF
Now inflation is lower, they have been cutting to rebalance, but the impacts of the high OCR have been taking effect on employment an domestic demand.
The economy is clearly weaker than anticipated. The RBNZ will do its part in getting things going again by dropping the OCR further.
The problems for the government are:
The fact that we are in an economic dip was pretty clear during covid when everyone got drunk on the free cash. It was always going to correct. It's the depth of the dip that is the surprise.
- The rainy day fund ($55bn) was spent by the last government, and
- Redeploying funds (or borrowing more funds) is against their policies
Unemployment was always going to get over 5% - it was signalled pretty clearly (an article from Jul-24 is below, for example)
Interest rate cuts to arrive sooner than expected - ANZ
New Zealand's biggest bank believes interest rate cuts will arrive sooner than it previously expected. The ANZ Bank has changed its official cash...
One of the problems now for Willis, is that she is going to need to convince NZ to start spending money again. Not easy when her main tool is messaging, and not stimulus
I agree, partially. However, the April to June period is typically very light for dairy. Cows dry off during this period, so it's a small base
Since Christopher Luxon became Prime Minister of New Zealand in late November 2023, here are the percentage changes in real GDP for New Zealand and other major economies, based on quarterly data up to the most recent available figures (Q2 2025).
Quarterly GDP Growth since Q4 2023
New Zealand:
Q4 2023: +0.2%
Q1 2024: +0.1%
Q2 2024: -0.9%
Q3 2024: -1.1%
Q4 2024: +0.4%
Q1 2025: +0.9%
Q2 2025: -0.9%
Cumulative Change (Q4 2023 to Q2 2025): -1.3%
United States:
Q4 2023: +0.8%
Q1 2024: +1.2%
Q2 2024: +0.9%
Q3 2024: +1.1%
Q4 2024: +0.6%
Q1 2025: -0.5%
Q2 2025: +0.8%
Cumulative Change (Q4 2023 to Q2 2025): +5.1%
United Kingdom:
Q4 2023: +0.1%
Q1 2024: +0.2%
Q2 2024: +0.1%
Q3 2024: +0.3%
Q4 2024: +0.4%
Q1 2025: +0.2%
Q2 2025: +0.3%
Cumulative Change (Q4 2023 to Q2 2025): +1.6%
Australia:
Q4 2023: +0.1%
Q1 2024: +0.2%
Q2 2024: +0.1%
Q3 2024: +0.3%
Q4 2024: +0.6%
Q1 2025: +0.3%
Q2 2025: +0.6%
Cumulative Change (Q4 2023 to Q2 2025): +2.2%
OECD Average:
Q4 2023: +0.4%
Q1 2024: +0.4%
Q2 2024: +0.5%
Q3 2024: +0.4%
Q4 2024: +0.5%
Q1 2025: +0.2%
Q2 2025: +0.4%
Cumulative Change (Q4 2023 to Q2 2025): +2.8%
Summary:
Since November 2023, New Zealand's economy has experienced a cumulative decline in real GDP, while the other listed economies and the OECD average have grown. The United States has seen the most significant growth, followed by Australia and the UK.
can you do the per capita GDP numbers?
Yes we’re all aware of that, however if we take the numbers at face value then New Zealand was the best performing economy in the March quarter… now that is absolute rubbish, but no more so than the -0.9% print in the June quarter.
NZWarriors.com
NZ per capita GDP fell 1.1% in the quarter to June, so productivity fell at a worse rate that GDP itself.
More detail;
Based on the most recent available data, here are the percentage changes in GDP per capita for each country and the OECD average since late 2023.
GDP Per Capita Percentage Changes
United Kingdom
: The UK saw the largest increase, with a 11.09% rise in its nominal GDP per capita from $49,464 in 2023 to an estimated $54,950 in 2025.United States
: The US experienced a significant increase of 7.66%, with its nominal GDP per capita rising from $82,769 in 2023 to an estimated $89,105 in 2025.Australia
: Australia's GDP per capita saw a minor decline of 0.42%, falling from $64,821 in 2023 to an estimated $64,550 in 2025. This indicates that population growth outpaced economic growth during this period.New Zealand
: New Zealand saw a decrease of 4.46% in its GDP per capita, from $48,281 in 2023 to an estimated $46,130 in 2025.thanks mateMore detail;
Based on the most recent available data, here are the percentage changes in GDP per capita for each country and the OECD average since late 2023.
GDP Per Capita Percentage Changes
United Kingdom
United States
Australia
New Zealand
NZWarriors.com
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