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As any teacher or parent knows, the threat of consequences has as much impact as an actual punishment.I find this amazingā¦. a politician who is actually not giving the government all the credit for a reduction is the crime figuresā¦. how refreshing!!!
ANALYSIS: The dramatic fall in victims of violent crime, and the impact of the Governmentās āvibeā rather than its policiesā
Itās a general rule of politics that governments claim credit when things are going well, and blame others (especially the previous Government) when they donāt.
But Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith was curiously cautious in an interview with the Herald last week, when he was talking up the Governmentās success in restoring law and order.
Asked about factors independent of the Governmentās agenda, he said: āWeāre definitely contributing to it in the effort that weāre making, but Iām not so arrogant to think that the world revolves around what happens in the Beehive. There are broader factors.ā
The drop in serious youth offending since the middle of last year, for example, started before many of the Governmentās key policies to tackle youth crime were implemented. Youth advocates speculate that the number of serious repeat youth offenders spiked following the increased isolation and stress of the Covid pandemic, and has started reverting to the downward pre-pandemic trend.
A downward pre-pandemic trend was also apparent in general crime statistics, so reversion to this might also be a factor in the 28,000 fewer adult victims of violent crime in the year to February, compared to the year to October 2023.
This is understandably a success the Government is keen to highlight; it smashes the public service target of 20,000 fewer such victims by 2029.
Announcing it yesterday, Police Minister Mark Mitchell acknowledged the work of Corrections and police (noting a 40% increase in police foot patrolling), but also paid tribute to wider efforts including from ethnic communities and the general public.
Goldsmith didnāt mention broader factors. He said it showed āour work to restore law and order is paying offā, citing anti-gang legislation, the return of Three Strikes, limiting sentencing discounts, and scrapping state funding for cultural reports.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon added that the new tools for police to fight gangs were already āunearthing illegal guns and illegal drugsā.
This was meant to be enabled through police searching the private homes of gang members under a gang patch prohibition order.
Trouble is, no such orders have been issued.
Then thereās Three strikes 2.0, which doesnāt commence until mid-June.
And the Governmentās sentencing reforms donāt start until the end of June.
āVibe is importantāā
No state funding for cultural reports, however, has been in place since March last year. The reports led to an average of a 10% sentencing discount, according to Justice Ministry analysis.
Itās possible - though seems unlikely - that this has played a major role in dramatically lowering the number of victims of violent crime in less than a year.
Thereād need to be a significant number of violent offenders serving longer prison sentences due to an inability to fund cultural reports. And those longer sentences would need to have prevented enough violent offending to filter through to the number of victims.
Goldsmith seemed to acknowledge this unlikelihood last week, when he told the Herald that the message was as important as the actual policy.
āIt was a signal: rather than this culture of excuses about why you do things, actually, people have to be held personally responsible.ā
He was responding to a Herald article about changes made in 2016 by the previous National-led Government, which provided stronger safeguards for community sentences. This led to the shorter and fewer prison sentences Goldsmith was blaming Labour for.
āItās one of the contributing factors,ā Goldsmith conceded.
āI think by far a very significant contributing factor is the shift in Government direction right across the whole board, which was [under Labour], we want fewer people in prison, and lo and behold there were fewer people in prison.
āVibe is important. It filters its way through. We changed the message.ā
Asked about this, former District Court Judge David Harvey said he never felt any vibe from the Labour Government telling him to be more lenient in his sentencing.
āI donāt think any judge would consciously think, āOh, the Government has said weāve got to reduce prison numbers. Therefore, Iām not going to sentence this guy to jail.ā
āYou deal with the case thatās before you on the basis of the law. You donāt deal with it on the basis of some mysterious vibe thatās come from Wellington,ā said Harvey, who retired in 2016 but returned to the bench under an acting warrant from 2018 to 2021.
Nor was it something that could be measured, he added.
āThere isnāt a vibe-o-meter at the door of the judgeās chambers that detects the message from the politicians, and influences accordingly.
āItās probably nice to think that judges take some notice of what politicians say, but no, the oath is to do right to all men according to the laws and usages of New Zealand, and thatās what you do.ā
What the data saysā
This doesnāt necessarily mean the Governmentās policies - or its vibe - have had little or no impact on reducing crime.
And it appears to be reducing.
The number of victims of violent crime dropped from a peak of 215,000 in the year to June 2024 to 157,000 for the year to February 2025 - a 27% fall. There were 12,000 fewer victims in Auckland, while in Canterbury there were 5000 fewer victims.
These statistics are from the NZ Crime and Victims Survey, which is considered more robust because it includes the vast majority of crime that goes unreported.
View attachment 12572
But there are also downward trends in police victimisation data - a report of a crime to police, regardless of whether it leads to any charges.
The number of police victimisation reports dropped in 2024 for āacts intended to cause injuryā (which covers assault and serious assault), and for aggravated robbery.
This followed year-on-year increases in both categories, which led to an increasing number of annual charges and convictions in court.
Luxon yesterday also mentioned a drop in ram raids, though he didnāt mention that these peaked in mid-2022, well before he took office.
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In his statement yesterday, at least Goldsmith acknowledged that the numbers are inherently volatile.
But he couldnāt resist the general rule in politics, suggesting any future rise in the number of victims would be Labourās fault.
āItās important to remember this survey covers a 24-month period, so we will continue to see the results of Labourās soft-on-crime approach filter through at points.ā
The drop in victims of violent crime, impact of Govtās āvibeā rather than its policies
Luxon has reached his target for reducing victims of violent crime four years early.www.nzherald.co.nz
Pity the Greens donāt understand this, luckily for us, our government does!
Labour were the ideal party with a soft approach during the initial stages of covid, National is the strict parent thatās getting everything back on track again.
Born thieves!
