Interesting inflation (CPI) figures for the last quarter released today.
NZ's CPI has dropped down to 3.3% over the last twelve months but is still outside of the RBNZ's band of 1-3% PA so they still won't drop the OCR down below the current 5.5%. Most economists are predicting that Orr won't allow a decrease in the OCR until November or February of next year. The average three-year fixed loan in NZ from the four major banks (Westpac, ASB [owned by Commonwealth bank in Aus], BNZ [owned by NAB in Aus] and ANZ) is currently 6.8%.
By comparison, the latest Australian CPI has their inflation rate at 3.6% and is also outside of their Reverse Banks band of 1-3% YET they have dropped their OCR down to 4.35%. In Australia, their average three-year fixed loan rate for the same four banks is currently 6.5%.
We are paying more interest in NZ even though we have lower inflation thanks to Orr's refusal to look at the downwards trend in inflation. The peak of inflation was in the second quarter of 2022 at 7.3% yet the NZRB only increased the OCR to 1.5%. Since then, as inflation has DROPPED the RBNZ has continued to raise the OCR. The RBNZ were far too slow to raise the OCR and are now far too slow to drop it.... and the average Kiwi is suffering because of high interest rates, higher unemployment rates and a greater number of Kiwis defaulting on their mortgage repayments compared to Oz.
And while NZ is in recession, Australia's is growing.
After the GFC, the RBNZ allowed the OCR to drop as inflation dropped and the economy recovered faster. This time, as their reluctance to reduce the OCR continues, the recovery will take much longer.