So once again we're getting fucked over by these corrupt politicians in our current government (Act and National is who I'm referring to) - the people on here trumpeting the water change, it isn't the win you think it is
THIS IS FROM BERNARD HICKEY
Ratings agency
Standard & Poorâs is pushing back hard at suggestions from
Local Government Minister Simeon Brown and
Mayor Wayne Brown that carving
Watercare out of
Auckland Council can be done easily and cheaply without clear guarantees on the new Watercare bonds from the Government or
Auckland Council.
Industry sources have told me Watercare would get a BBB+ or A- credit rating at best under the proposed structure, even with a ânod and a winkâ from the Crown that it would rescue Aucklandâs water network if push came to shove. This means the Government and Council are loading up an extra 50 to 100 basis points in borrowing costs onto the nationâs key infrastructure provider in the economyâs growth engine.
Over many billions of dollars of borrowing, the costs would mount up to tens of millions of dollars a year and the unnecessarily low credit rating would also restrict Watercareâs ultimate scale of the borrowing because fund managers donât have much room for BBB bonds. They will happily fund billions of AA bonds that the Council could issue, let alone the AA+ bonds the Government could sell.
To add to the financial pain, those costs are essentially unnecessary insurance premia to pay for the short-term and very political figleafs of keeping high credit ratings for the Council and Government themselves for now, and politicians being able to disavow responsibility for high water charges increases in future.
In my view, thatâs an expensive and unnecessary ânod and a winkâ that delays and restricts the amount of house-building needed to cope with previous fast population growth, let alone likely growth. The Government and Council would be achieve a lot more in a shorter period and with much less cost by simply borrowing off their own balance sheets. At worst, Auckland might lose a notch on its credit rating and increase its borrowing costs by 5-10 basis points, which would add about $2 million a year in interest costs.
Messrs Brown and Brown are choosing political figleafs now in exchange for loading up tens of millions in extra interest costs on Auckland ratepayers, while also delaying and downsizing the amount of house-building possible in future decades. It is the exact opposite of the Governmentâs stated aims of controlling inflation in basic living costs and âGoing For Growthâ on housebuilding.
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Brown figleaves to cost Aucklanders tens of millions
The much-trumpeted deal to carve
Watercare out of
Auckland Council and soften this yearâs water charges hike from 25.8% to 7.2% risks costing Aucklanders tens of millions of dollars a year extra in interest costs over the longer run, all to allow the Government and Council to say publicly they arenât guaranteeing the debt and allow politicians to disavow responsibility for new and/or higher water charges.
The deeper failure is that these extra costs will have been paid unnecessarily, especially from a taxpayersâ point of view. Thatâs because in reality, the Government would be forced bail out Watercare anyway. As it stands, the key ratings agency Standard & Poorâs is already pushing back at the vagueness of the Governmentâs position behind Watercare, saying that without a proper assurance the new carved-off Watercare would have a much lower credit rating than the Councilâs AA rating and the Crownâs AA+ rating.
Sources close to the process have confirmed Watercare might get a BBB+ rating or A- rating at the very best, even with a ânod and a winkâ from the Government. That would impose an extra borrowing cost over and above regular Government AA+ bonds or Auckland Council AA bonds of at least 50 to 100 basis points.
Local Government Minister Simeon Brown and
Auckland Mayor Wayne Brown trumpeted their deal on Sunday to carve
Watercareâs assets out of
Auckland Council as a win-win-win for ratepayers, taxpayers and the growth aspirations for Aotearoaâs biggest city and its economic (and housing) growth engine.
They said it would break the shackles on Aucklandâs borrowing limits, dramatically reduce this yearâs water charges increase and mean the Council and taxpayers would not have to guarantee Watercareâs bonds. It was also seen as a template for other councils to do the same thing. Whatâs not to like?
The trouble is that combination of lower water charges inflation, more borrowing and no formal guarantees of ratepayer or taxpayer bailouts is an impossible trinity without some sort of implicit reassurance or comfort for ratings agencies and bond investors given by the Goverment that means there is effectively a guarantee anyway.
The real problem is this ânod and a winkâ from minister of the day is not being clarified and wonât be clear until legislation is written later in the year.
Strategic ambiguities abound
I asked Simeon Brownâs office, Wayne Brownâs office and Standard & Poorâs for clarity on what form the guarantee or assurance would take.
The Browns said in their
announcement on Sunday that: âInternational credit ratings agency
S&P Global Ratings has determined the model would mean Watercareâs borrowing is considered separate from Auckland Council for credit rating purposes.â
Simeon Brown went further in a news conference (bolding mine):
Really?
Sources close to Auckland Council suggested on Sunday that the lack of a formal guarantee could be replaced by type of ânod and winkâ, described thus: âCentral Government would be under no legal obligation to rescue the entity, but would be able to do so if it chose.â
What might S&P think of not having a guarantee?
I asked and they wrote back with the following (
bolding mine):
So how much lower would the rating be? Sources familiar with the details of local government credit ratings said a BBB rating was likely with no assurance of Crown support, with a possible one or two extra notches to BBB+ or A- with a ânod and a wink.â
So was this the only choice for Auckland Council, Watercare and the Government?
Thereâs been a lot of chatter about how there was no way for Auckland Council or Watercare to borrow more because the Council was up against its debt ceiling of 280% of revenues. Iâm told thatâs not true because Watercare could have borrowed more through the
Local Government Funding Agency (LGFA), but only if Auckland Council agreed to a one-notch credit rating downgrade.
S&P made clear that such a downgrade would only increase the Councilâs costs by 5-10 basis points or less than $2 million per year. In previous years council officials have warned a downgrade for Auckland Council would force a sovereign downgrade, but S&P and others have rejected that.
In eseence, Brown and Brown are choosing an option that avoids rating downgrades that might prove politically embarrassing or increase mortgage borrowing costs nationally (but only marginally). They are also able to distance themselves from decisions made by Watercare and other water providers to increase and/or impose water charges.