Politics 🗳️ NZ Politics

[Inruin]

The way our resident righties have been carrying on we should all be unemployed and homeless by now.

I don't think that's quite correct or fair. They have been highlighting that we are in the poo and the depth is increasing. Seeing the rapid change/decline in these numbers over a very short period of time has to be a concern, surely? And as someone noted in a post earlier today, the numbers look very optimistic in this latest release and an element of fiddling the numbers to try and make them look less worse than they are.

My concern is the increased spending, borrowing and worsening outcomes. If these numbers today are close to being accurate then there isn't much to go around to try and fix these issues.

What are your thoughts on the current situation we are in? Are you happy with what is happening or where we are heading? I'm interested in what you are seeing that paints a rosier picture for you than what I am seeing, hearing and feeling.

 

[juju]

That is the current Govt that have overseen rapid house price increases. Have the opposition said they want house prices going up?

Property prices are down....

Do you seriously think an opposition who wants to empower property speculation / landlords want house prices to go down?

 

[wizard of Tauranga]

That is the current Govt that have overseen rapid house price increases. Have the opposition said they want house prices going up?

Median house prices

Nov 2018 - $575,000
2023 - $770,000

 

[juju]

I don't think that's quite correct or fair. They have been highlighting that we are in the poo and the depth is increasing. Seeing the rapid change/decline in these numbers over a very short period of time has to be a concern, surely? And as someone noted in a post earlier today, the numbers look very optimistic in this latest release and an element of fiddling the numbers to try and make them look less worse than they are.

My concern is the increased spending, borrowing and worsening outcomes. If these numbers today are close to being accurate then there isn't much to go around to try and fix these issues.

What are your thoughts on the current situation we are in? Are you happy with what is happening or where we are heading? I'm interested in what you are seeing that paints a rosier picture for you than what I am seeing, hearing and feeling.

The mood of the nation certainly isn't great & a tremendous amount of money was wasted during the pandemic.
But the economic prognosis isn't particularly worse than at many junctions with many recent National governments.

Excuse me for being dubious that National & Act have the ability to turn anything around for normal people.

 

[dean]

Property prices are down....

Do you seriously think an opposition who wants to empower property speculation / landlords want house prices to go down?

Prices are down from their peak, some sectors more than others but they didn't reach the levels pre lockdown.
You confuse property speculation with property investment. Speculators pay tax, IRD have the bank account and tax number of every transaction and they are taxable activities.

 

[juju]

Prices are down from their peak, some sectors more than others but they didn't reach the levels pre lockdown.
You confuse property speculation with property investment. Speculators pay tax, IRD have the bank account and tax number of every transaction and they are taxable activities.

Our national obsession with property investment has not been a good thing for the country at all

 

[Inruin]

The mood of the nation certainly isn't great & a tremendous amount of money was wasted during the pandemic.
But the economic prognosis isn't particularly worse than at many junctions with many recent National governments.

Excuse me for being dubious that National & Act have the ability to turn anything around for normal people.

I think that's two separate things.

The economic prognosis when Labour took over was very good. There was a lot of wasted money during the pandemic and that doesn't seem to have changed since.

I get your thoughts around National/ACT. I'm the same on Labour/Greens currently.

 

[wizard of Tauranga]

Our national obsession with property investment has not been a good thing for the country at all

I agree with you but your solution would be?

An anti business government hell bent on making business difficult, less profitable, with more uncertainty isn’t the solution. It’s also part of the problem.

Simply put, we need to make business more profitable, simpler and easier than investing in property.

But we still need the investment in our housing stock as supply is also an issue leading to homelessness and higher rent. If housing development was made easier with less risk, developers could supply more for cheaper. Again, this government has done the opposite.

 

[juju]

I agree with you but your solution would be?

An anti business government hell bent on making business difficult, less profitable, with more uncertainty isn’t the solution. It’s also part of the problem.

Simply put, we need to make business more profitable, simpler and easier than investing in property.

But we still need the investment in our housing stock as supply is also an issue leading to homelessness and higher rent. If housing development was made easier with less risk, developers could supply more for cheaper. Again, this government has done the opposite.

Pull the levers to make mega landlords & mum and pop landlords hoarding existing house stock unprofitable.
Incentivise innovative new builds. Seems simple but we have the opposition electioneering mostly to reverse changes to the benefit of people who don't need help.

I'm not naive enough to think anybody in the NZ Parliament have turn this all around significantly.

 

[MrFrankWhite]

Part of me wants Labour to win so they have to deal not just with the Maori party but also watch GrantR try and deal with the economy crisis he’s created with his ”scorched earth” economic policy.

Both Chippy and GrantR‘s faces remind me of the defeated looks Clark and Cullen had leading in to the 2008 General Election. What concerns me is how weak the opposition will look if the polls are accurate…. Labour stand to lose almost 50% of the people who voted for them in the last election…. Chippy won’t survive the fallout. He’s this years version of Judith Collins in 2000…. treading water until the party dumps him.

The opening of the Government Books this morning is not going to be pretty!!!

What you described isnt unique to NZ politics. Its the effects of a two party political sytem. Look back at Muldoon etc.

 

[MrFrankWhite]

But we still need the investment in our housing stock as supply is also an issue leading to homelessness and higher rent. If housing development was made easier with less risk, developers could supply more for cheaper. Again, this government has done the opposite.

Supply of housing is only ever restricted if you allow speculation. As long as you have resources and labour, people will build shelter. We've been doing it OUR ENTIRE EXISTENCE.

Because NZ doesn't invest in industry, it has trash wages and zero investment. So that made everyone front load on service/tourism and property. COVID killed the first and raising rates and property prices are killing the second.

 

[wizard of Tauranga]

Supply of housing is only ever restricted if you allow speculation. As long as you have resources and labour, people will build shelter. We've been doing it OUR ENTIRE EXISTENCE.

Hmmm… People in NZs emergency housing and homeless has skyrocketed.

Why haven’t we provide enough housing?

- our councils are broke and can’t afford to provide infrastructure
- therefore councils restrict land supply
- new brightline capital gains tax extension
- increase in building regulations ramping up costs
- lack of tradesman and labour
- overburdening council compliance requirements
- wildly fluctuating house prices creating uncertainty for builders and purchasers
- a resource management act that’s anti development.

Building needs to be made easier to enable supply. Government CAN free things up.

Having said all that, as you say, people will build shelter - but is the tents popping up in our parks and reserves the answer you really meant?

 

[wizard of Tauranga]

It's not a great outlook and if you add in the worsening stats on poverty, homelessness, education, crime, health etc it certainly looks pretty gloomy.

Worst thing is those stats nosedived while in an economically good period.

Imagine what will happen to the stats when unemployment rockets up, interest rates hit the top and the economy has slowed down

No problem - by then the left will be able to blame National who will need to deal with the mess

 

[Bruce]

I'll nominate Bruce.

I will retur the favour, or should I say get my answering service to do it for you

 

[Bruce]

Prices are down from their peak

basic gravity.

Covid happens, lets us stimulate the economy says treasury.
So they give millions of cheap money away to people who don't need it, who invest in housing.
So now the government needs to bring the house values down, so they are all in the shite and won't build any new houses.

 

[wizard of Tauranga]

basic gravity.

Covid happens, lets us stimulate the economy says treasury.
So they give millions of cheap money away to people who don't need it, who invest in housing.
So now the government needs to bring the house values down, so they are all in the shite and won't build any new houses.

I agree treasury has a lot to answer for it.

When the economy boomed instead of crashing after covid they reacted way slow… like a year late.

 

[defensivebomb]

i heard a fitting quote today -

A surplus is only a surplus when you're in actually in surplus

 

[miket12]

Auckland’s rental squeeze: Desperate prospective tenants resort to bribes​

A chronic shortage of residential rental stock in Auckland has left some desperate prospective tenants resorting to bribes, a real estate boss says.

Data from Impression Real Estate - which manages over 1000 rentals in the Auckland region - shows the number of new tenants viewing each rental property has increased 900 per cent, or an average of five per property to over 50, in just six months.

An increase in migration, Auckland’s summer flooding events and domestic pressures are all contributing to the rental squeeze.

Rishabh Kapoor, chief executive of Impression Real Estate, said it was concerning to see desperate tenants offering bribes to property managers to secure a rental ahead of others.

“While the majority have been monetary-related, such as offering to pay anywhere between $50-$100 more than the advertised rent, some have been about dinners and gifts to the property managers to get their application approved over other applicants.

“Some came up with offerings to carry out property improvements at their own expense,” he added.

“Our team obviously turned these offers down in a light and polite tone, often explaining why this is not an acceptable practice.

“It’s a clear indication of the desperation some people are facing in the current rental market.”

Kapoor said one of his senior property managers told him a $200 bribe was offered to him during a viewing he was conducting yesterday.

“An interesting fact is most of these applicants are coming from overseas,” Kapoor said.

“Being a migrant myself, I have seen the same culture back in India where people would offer more rent to secure a property where there is competition. It gives our team a good opportunity to educate these people about our culture in New Zealand and most of these people are pleasantly surprised by it.”

Kapoor said around this time last year they were seeing a vacancy rate for apartments of about 7-8 per cent.

This was as low as 2.5 per cent at the moment, he said.

Kapoor said there was high demand for CBD apartments coming from those who have lost their homes as a result of storms earlier in the year, along with recent migrants.

He said the company urgently needs another 120-plus homes or apartments to meet market demand.

“What we have noticed is that after the recent weather events our clients have decided they no longer want to reside in properties that have large sections or are adjacent to hillsides and could be vulnerable to slips or flooding, so they are moving into the CBD - which is putting even more pressure on an already tight apartment rental market,” Kapoor said.

“We are also seeing others downsize from larger family homes because they can’t afford to pay the mortgage with current interest rates and are selling up and wanting a rental property to live in.

“In addition to this new domestic pressure we have migrants coming in who are also wanting to live in the central city,” he said.

But with this comes an increased number of people who are new to renting and unfamiliar with current industry regulations, Kapoor said.

He said more needs to be done to better inform and educate landlords and new tenants who are often unaware of their legal rights and responsibilities under the Residential Tenancies Act.

This included things like repairs and maintenance, rent increases, inspections, bonds and healthy homes.

“One of the biggest issues we are seeing is the misunderstanding about the maintenance and repair responsibilities. Some tenants are unaware that they need to report maintenance issues as soon as they arise, while some landlords mistakenly believe that the tenant is responsible for all repairs or maintenance tasks,” Kapoor said.

Figures from Stats NZ show migrant arrivals continued to soar in the year to June 2023.

Annual net migration rose to 86,800 - made up of a net gain of 121,600 non-New Zealand citizens and a net migration loss of 34,800 New Zealand citizens.

But on a monthly basis the migration gain for June of 5000 was lower than previous months and well off the big gains of over 13,000 seen in February and March.

Meanwhile, Auckland rents rose nearly 3 per cent in the year to June to an average of $605 a week.

Can AI help?​

Impression Real Estate has developed artificial technology (AI) designed to help tenants find new properties and educate them, and landlords, on their rights, a first for the local industry, it says.

The technology uses a chatbot as an interface for tenants and landlords which is currently being trained to answer a wide range of questions and is available at any time of the day.

“The bot has been named Marcia after one of Impression Real Estate’s team members. For the past 15 years, Marcia has answered numerous inquiries and we wanted to be able to share her expertise in the form of a virtual avatar with our clients,” Kapoor said.

“The new AI chatbot will be able to answer common queries such as how to receive a bond refund, where they can find a copy of their lease agreement, or how to locate a plumber for a water pressure issue.

“As well as providing practical solutions and driving greater efficiency, over time, it will learn to assist with the legal fundamentals of the tenancy and help tenants and landlords to adhere to their legal obligations in a very transparent way.”

He said there was significant scope to introduce other new technology to support the tenancy process including virtual viewings of properties.

However, this was not well supported by current Government policy.

“We know there is demand from tenants, particularly those moving here from overseas to be able to conduct a remote viewing of a new property, however, current regulations would need to be updated to accommodate this,” he said.

“This would mean a prospective tenant could view a property from offshore and be able to lease the dwelling before they arrived. There would be a grace period included in case anything needed to be addressed when they inspected it in person.”

Auckland’s rental squeeze: Desperate prospective tenants resort to bribes

Migration and Auckland floods are putting a squeeze on the rental market.

www.nzherald.co.nz

 

[dean]

Our national obsession with property investment has not been a good thing for the country at all

It has housed thousands of people and continues to do so. Even HNZ encouraged it with their lease program for years and years because they could never meet demand. The lease program was for new stock. Real estate is an investment vehicle every non communist country. Our market is always in catch up, we continue to make it more difficult and expensive to build. This along with migration results in the shortages we have.
Anyway, this is what I think on CGT.
All property sold within two years of ownership attracts CGT, including family home.
All residential property purchased in the name of a company attracts CGT no matter length of ownership.
Landlords have a 10 year brightline threshold for CGT but have interest tax deductability allowed.
Anybody selling more than three houses in a 10 year period is liable for CGT on all future transactions.

 

[wizard of Tauranga]

It has housed thousands of people and continues to do so. Even HNZ encouraged it with their lease program for years and years because they could never meet demand. The lease program was for new stock. Real estate is an investment vehicle every non communist country. Our market is always in catch up, we continue to make it more difficult and expensive to build. This along with migration results in the shortages we have.
Anyway, this is what I think on CGT.
All property sold within two years of ownership attracts CGT, including family home.
All residential property purchased in the name of a company attracts CGT no matter length of ownership.
Landlords have a 10 year brightline threshold for CGT but have interest tax deductability allowed.
Anybody selling more than three houses in a 10 year period is liable for CGT on all future transactions.

I say we get supply of enough houses sorted. It’s the fundamental aim of housing and needs to be the priority.

THEN we introduce rules to raise government revenue and increase quality of housing stock, etc