Politics 🗳️ NZ Politics

[miket12]

Sad - the old mayor is a big Warriors fan.
@Rizzah you aren't the old mayor eh?

juju Dave Cull?

 

[defensivebomb]

Hipkins said this morning that there's mood for change, but that "Labour is offering change too"

Fark. If National can't win this, then the electorate really deserves what happens in the next 3 years...

 

[miket12]

Hipkins said this morning that there's mood for change, but that "Labour is offering change too"

Fark. If National can't win this, then the electorate really deserves what happens in the next 3 years...

Part of me wants Labour to win so they have to deal not just with the Maori party but also watch GrantR try and deal with the economy crisis he’s created with his ”scorched earth” economic policy.

Both Chippy and GrantR‘s faces remind me of the defeated looks Clark and Cullen had leading in to the 2008 General Election. What concerns me is how weak the opposition will look if the polls are accurate…. Labour stand to lose almost 50% of the people who voted for them in the last election…. Chippy won’t survive the fallout. He’s this years version of Judith Collins in 2000…. treading water until the party dumps him.

The opening of the Government Books this morning is not going to be pretty!!!

 

[juju]

juju Dave Cull?

Nah the recent Greens one. There can't be too many lefty Warriors fans down there.

 

[wizard of Tauranga]

I know he could say that but that also implies they've taken no notice of any poll before the closing of Parliamentut from Trump how to overturn an election result?

‘Labour leader Chris Hipkins has taken responsibility for the latest poor poll result but has vowed to fight on, saying his party has only just started campaigning.’

And C it is

'I accept responsibility': Hipkins vows to fight on despite Labour's poor Newshub poll result

"Clearly the polls are not where we want them to be and I accept responsibility for that, I am the leader of the Labour Party."

www.newshub.co.nz

 

[miket12]

‘Labour leader Chris Hipkins has taken responsibility for the latest poor poll result but has vowed to fight on, saying his party has only just started campaigning.’

And C it is

'I accept responsibility': Hipkins vows to fight on despite Labour's poor Newshub poll result

"Clearly the polls are not where we want them to be and I accept responsibility for that, I am the leader of the Labour Party."

www.newshub.co.nz

And which one will he pick next time? Option D….. a white flag

 

[demco]

Years of mismanagement and broken promisers by Labour found out at LAST

 

[defensivebomb]

This from the NZ Herald. The bolding and underlining of text was my own:

"The forecasts also assume that the Government will run incredibly small budgets for the foreseeable future, baking in 15 years of relative austerity.​

​

Its central forecast assumes that next year’s budget includes an operating allowance (Treasury jargon for “new day-to-day spending”) of $3.5b. The next two years have their allowances cut thanks to decisions Robertson made last month to $3.25b in 2025 and $3b in 2026.​

​

Every budget thereafter has an operating allowance rising by 2 per cent.​

What that means is that the forecasts assume that the Government does not run a budget with new spending as large as this year’s budget until at least 2037.​

To put this in perspective, the Government’s last three budgets have averaged operating allowances of $4.8b."​

I'm sorry, but isn't this diddling the books a bit? It's like going to your doctor and forecasting your health based on giving up smoking, drinking and eating fast food from tomorrow. To assume that day to day govt spending will decrease by 27%, going forward, is rather optimistic

Funnily enough, the Herald is reporting that we return to surplus one year "earlier than forecast", yet the actual PREFU, published today by the Treasury, has us returning to surplus "one year later than previously forecast".

Hopefully one day journalists actually start reading what they are reporting on, rather than parroting media releases...

 

[juju]

This from the NZ Herald. The bolding and underlining of text was my own:

"The forecasts also assume that the Government will run incredibly small budgets for the foreseeable future, baking in 15 years of relative austerity.​

​

Its central forecast assumes that next year’s budget includes an operating allowance (Treasury jargon for “new day-to-day spending”) of $3.5b. The next two years have their allowances cut thanks to decisions Robertson made last month to $3.25b in 2025 and $3b in 2026.​

​

Every budget thereafter has an operating allowance rising by 2 per cent.​

What that means is that the forecasts assume that the Government does not run a budget with new spending as large as this year’s budget until at least 2037.​

To put this in perspective, the Government’s last three budgets have averaged operating allowances of $4.8b."​

I'm sorry, but isn't this diddling the books a bit? It's like going to your doctor and forecasting your health based on giving up smoking, drinking and eating fast food from tomorrow. To assume that day to day govt spending will decrease by 27%, going forward, is rather optimistic

Funnily enough, the Herald is reporting that we return to surplus one year "earlier than forecast", yet the actual PREFU, published today by the Treasury, has us returning to surplus "one year later than previously forecast".

Hopefully one day journalists actually start reading what they are reporting on, rather than parroting media releases...

It's not as gloomy as most posters on here have been making out - but I guess you all know a lot more than treasury

 

[defensivebomb]

To remove the media / commentator bias, below is a comparison between the PREFU (Sep-23) and the Budget Update (Jul-23). I've added the highlights, as the rest of the values are somewhat inline:

 

[wizard of Tauranga]

It's not as gloomy as most posters on here have been making out - but I guess you all know a lot more than treasury

- Crown’s tax revenue came in $2.9b lower than forecast in May.
- Government’s budget deficit was $3b deeper than anticipated, at $10b - a $2,000 loss for every person in NZ.
- Treasury now forecasts the books returning to a small surplus in 2026/27 – a year later than what was forecast in May
- treasury believes it will have to issue $129b of New Zealand Government Bonds in the four years to 2026/27 - $9b more than forecast in May and $29b more than forecast in December. Winston was wrong about a $20 billion hole - it’s $29b
- Treasury noted that in recent times, the Government consistently ended up spending more than planned.
- Many election promises are NOT budgeted for eg the airport light rail/ harbour crossings.
- it doesn’t allow for costs due to immigration when we have $100k this year…
- We are looking at deficits for seven years – a year longer than they were in the deficit in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis and Canterbury earthquakes.

Everything is deteriorating rapidly, just in this year. Treasury’s forecasts have been consistently optimistically wrong post covid and spending has consistently been higher than budgeted. The data says we’re heading rapidly south (see above just this year). There is a ‘trust me bro’ attitude to the forecasts that a whole lot of new economic growth will save us in a few years time…

 

[wizard of Tauranga]

To remove the media / commentator bias, below is a comparison between the PREFU (Sep-23) and the Budget Update (Jul-23). I've added the highlights, as the rest of the values are somewhat inline:

View attachment 577

How can the unemployment rate be almost double at the moment in the 2024 and 2025 years yet no recession and the current account deficit will magically decrease?

Doesn’t add up. You would expect less tax take and increasing spending on benefits, etc.

 

[Inruin]

- Crown’s tax revenue came in $2.9b lower than forecast in May.
- Government’s budget deficit was $3b deeper than anticipated, at $10b - a $2,000 loss for every person in NZ.
- Treasury now forecasts the books returning to a small surplus in 2026/27 – a year later than what was forecast in May
- treasury believes it will have to issue $129b of New Zealand Government Bonds in the four years to 2026/27 - $9b more than forecast in May and $29b more than forecast in December. Winston was wrong about a $20 billion hole - it’s $29b
- Treasury noted that in recent times, the Government consistently ended up spending more than planned.
- Many election promises are NOT budgeted for eg the airport light rail/ harbour crossings.
- it doesn’t allow for costs due to immigration when we have $100k this year…
- We are looking at deficits for seven years – a year longer than they were in the deficit in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis and Canterbury earthquakes.

Everything is deteriorating rapidly, just in this year. Treasury’s forecasts have been consistently optimistically wrong post covid and spending has consistently been higher than budgeted. The data says we’re heading rapidly south (see above just this year). There is a ‘trust me bro’ attitude to the forecasts that a whole lot of new economic growth will save us in a few years time…

It's not a great outlook and if you add in the worsening stats on poverty, homelessness, education, crime, health etc it certainly looks pretty gloomy.

 

[dean]

It's not a great outlook and if you add in the worsening stats on poverty, homelessness, education, crime, health etc it certainly looks pretty gloomy.

Or the people unable to make their mortgage payments, middle NZ.

 

[Rick O’Shay]

I wouldn't believe a thing treasury says. Their forecasting track record has been pretty abysmal.

Mind you, so has forecasting from the RB, Finance Minister and anyone with a career starting with Eco.

 

[juju]

I wouldn't believe a thing treasury says. Their forecasting track record has been pretty abysmal.

Mind you, so has forecasting from the RB, Finance Minister and anyone with a career starting with Eco.

Yeah you're right - The NZ Warriors Fan Forum right wing faction know so much more about economic policy and have the qualifications to back it up.

 

[juju]

It's not a great outlook and if you add in the worsening stats on poverty, homelessness, education, crime, health etc it certainly looks pretty gloomy.

The way our resident righties have been carrying on we should all be unemployed and homeless by now.

 

[Evil_Mush]

Or the people unable to make their mortgage payments, middle NZ.

Or the people unable to get to the point of even getting a mortgage #lifetimerenter

 

[juju]

Or the people unable to make their mortgage payments, middle NZ.

Yeah so let's vote in a government who want house prices to keep going up.

 

[dean]

Yeah so let's vote in a government who want house prices to keep going up.

That is the current Govt that have overseen rapid house price increases. Have the opposition said they want house prices going up?