General Your 2025 team

Brightman said:
Facts. Who played where and how many games..

Yes. Now we move forward to 2025..

Cool. Imagine if the Warriors signed KK, TT would be bye bye..
Click to expand...
Thanks for the responses.

How long does CNK get if he starts off no better then he left off in 2024.
 
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Brightman said:
I only caught a little of the NSW teams 2024 performances but early on TMM and TT were really running the team like bosses. I could see the warriors trying to convert TT into the halves..
Click to expand...
Watching the replays of a good middle part of 2024, TMM ran the first grade team really well at halfback. From the time he played nsw cup, I thought he developed a good combination with Leiataua too. Going to be intriguing to see whether he and CNK are in their future plans?
 
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John Nick said:
So having a great preseason and excelling in the trials is a waste of time.
I am certain that especially our younger guys don't see it that way.
This is their time to show coaches and staff what they have.
Sure a few spots will be a lock but in our case not many
Click to expand...
Evidence:

AW letting slip CNK was locked in
Kearney never changing a team
NZ cricket team sticking with the squad (eg Southee)

Players perform for a season including preseason to get a shot at 2026.
 
John Nick said:
So having a great preseason and excelling in the trials is a waste of time.
I am certain that especially our younger guys don't see it that way.
This is their time to show coaches and staff what they have.
Sure a few spots will be a lock but in our case not many
Click to expand...
You're not wrong. Guys have to get noticed by putting in and standing out, but it's one thing to stand out in preseason + trials and another in the actual competition games. Usually guys gradually usurp the incumbent, sometimes injuries hand them the spot and they never look back..
 
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Brightman said:
You're not wrong. Guys have to get noticed by putting in and standing out, but it's one thing to stand out in preseason + trials and another in the actual competition games. Usually guys gradually usurp the incumbent, sometimes injuries hand them the spot and they never look back..
Click to expand...
I used to love preseason opposed trials and to be up against the encumbent.
 
John Nick said:
I used to love preseason opposed trials and to be up against the encumbent.
Click to expand...
Some good potential on train and trials too, especially with the likes of Daeon Amituanai for those wanting more speed in the team. Think there will be aspects of the team that pick themselves like DWZ and JFH so long as they’re fit, but I think there’s probably a lot competition for many other positions. To reference that good middle part of the season again, I think it will be handy in the sense that Webster can trust players to step up and not continue with a player that can use a bit of rehab to get back to 100%. He’s pretty much said as much in a recent interview
 
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ROCCO said:
01. T Tuaupiki
02. DWZ
03. CNK
04. A Leiataua
05. RTS
06. L Metcalf
07. Te Maire Martin

08. James Fisher Harris (c)
09. Wayde Egan
10. Mitchell Barnett
11. Marata Niukore
12. Kurt Capewell
13. Tohu Harris

14. Dylan Walker
15. Erin Clarke
16. Demetric Vaimauga
17. Freddy linespeed Lussick
Click to expand...
This has got a lot of upside in this team. Not out and out speed but probably our fastest and most agile.
Good to see Vaimauga with punch and fitness and leg speed off the bench. They could implement our standard game plan of grinding defense very well.
 
Last edited:
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Disclaimer: Bit of a long post. TL;DR: some compiled stats for preferred positions, substitutions from injury, and the management of our interchanges.

This is just a breakdown of how injuries shaped how the squad looked for the 2024 season. Hopfully highlighting that some of the chocies made in who goes where, was more of brakedown of who's avaliable. To make predicting the team for 2025 a little bit easier. And give people context to why some players were playing the way they were last season. Not the whole picture of course. But some context.

Context:
I think AW's preferred team for 2024 is as follows:
Interchange
I think the only dispute here will be over the bench positions and Jackson Ford. So I'll go over my reasoning for those, as the rest (in my opinion) were set in stone. Simply put:
  • (14) Walker as the main “super-sub” utility. Mainly prop/lock
  • (15) Niukore as the second-row forward or prop rotation
  • (16) Tevaga as the middle-prop bench cover
  • (17) Harris-Tavita as the hooking/halves insurance
Walker is a given.
Niukore was training as a prop/middle, but as injuries mounted, he was our go-to second-row sub.
Tevaga there was never a time this year we got that “one-two combo” off the bench—i.e., the “bald brothers.” Whenever Jazz was on the bench, Walker was either injured or playing lock. His position last year was just all over the place. So this was quite hard to pin down. It could of also gone to Afoa. But as soon as jazz was back up. Even Ale seemed to be more a better pick in AW's eyes.
Harris-Tavita is interesting. I don't think it's Lussick, and here's why: Lussick played 15 games (4 filling in for Egan, 3 on the bench but never subbed on—so effectively 8 real “on-field” games). All those “real” games occurred when CHT was unavailable (injury) or starting at #6. There were also 5 games with CHT out for injury/HIA and 4 “not selected” rounds.
The only times Lussick was picked over CHT were Round 1 and Round 26. I'm striking off Round 26 as a “mistake,” because that was one of Lussick’s 3 bench-only games. Which means in every other opportunity, CHT got that #17 spot over Lussick.



The Meat​

Here’s an Excel sheet of all the positional changes made throughout the season, based on the original “AW’s preferred team.” Hopefully, it highlights what combinations we were trying to train with vs. what we actually had to play with. I also added the result, opponent, and home/away context to see how this affected the team.

Quick Caveats:
  • Home is only considered home if it’s in NZ. Otherwise, I marked it as away. I don’t think there’s a home advantage without a “home field.”
  • If Egan was playing (even if benched initially), I counted him as the hooker.
  • The interchange is all over the place. So:
    • The 14th is used as impact prop/utility cover,
    • The 15th is second-row/prop cover,
    • The 16th is another prop cover,
    • The 17th is hooker/half cover.

View: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQoLHL2JgAXjmDU--qHM8Qu3a_3QZQFaJl32H8Wah1O8SHxJB3Jz7aynjiiIiTQq8_HAT0WQzfrBIjk/pubhtml


But that’s not the only thing.
Here is another Excel sheet of all the Warriors’ player interchanges, including those who didn’t actually get subbed on. This shows how changes in our rotation affect the interchange system and how effectively it was used overall—especially since most of the chopping and changing happened on our bench.

Example stat from this second set:

Above is a quick count of zero-play-time games—where we effectively burned a bench slot. Much of it seemed tied to hooker cover... There's more to dive into, but I'd rather just post all the info first before it becomes yet another unfinished mini-project.



View: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTxq-_GJt4Yw5UlJwgtI5clhSFpARXWXNms9AJdRnGbUoTInZnen2mFxNu20ASbyrv9RTSNG64dVgYf/pubhtml

Anyway happy new years eve everyone!
 
Last edited:
roguei said:
Disclaimer: Bit of a long post. TL;DR: some compiled stats for preferred positions, substitutions from injury, and the management of our interchanges.

This is just a breakdown of how injuries shaped how the squad looked for the 2024 season. Hopfully highlighting that some of the chocies made in who goes where, was more of brakedown of who's avaliable. To make predicting the team for 2025 a little bit easier. And give people context to why some players were playing the way they were last season. Not the whole picture of course. But some context.

Context:
I think AW's preferred team for 2024 is as follows:
Interchange
I think the only dispute here will be over the bench positions and Jackson Ford. So I'll go over my reasoning for those, as the rest (in my opinion) were set in stone. Simply put:
  • (14) Walker as the main “super-sub” utility
  • (15) Niukore as the second-row forward rotation
  • (16) Afoa as the middle-prop bench cover
  • (17) Harris-Tavita as the hooking/halves insurance
Walker is a given.
Niukore was training as a prop/middle, but as injuries mounted, he was our go-to second-row sub.
Afoa played a somewhat odd number of games. I think if Niukore was uninjured, it would have played out differently. The data repeatedly shows Bunty coming on for AFB or Barnett around the 20–25 minute mark, then often finishing around the 50–60 minute mark. But as time went on, Tom Ale proved himself, and it looks like he took that spot from Bunty. Meanwhile, Bunty's bench spot was used to test other players (e.g., Jacob Laban / Zyon Maiu’u / Leka Halasima / Demitric Sifakula). If we had fewer injuries, it might have gone to Jazz Tevaga. But there was never a time this year we got that “one-two combo” off the bench—i.e., the “bald brothers.” Whenever Jazz was on the bench, Walker was either injured or playing lock.
Harris-Tavita is interesting. I don't think it's Lussick, and here's why: Lussick played 15 games (4 filling in for Egan, 3 on the bench but never subbed on—so effectively 8 real “on-field” games). All those “real” games occurred when CHT was unavailable (injury) or starting at #6. There were also 5 games with CHT out for injury/HIA and 4 “not selected” rounds.
The only times Lussick was picked over CHT were Round 1 and Round 26. I'm striking off Round 26 as a “mistake,” because that was one of Lussick’s 3 bench-only games. Which means in every other opportunity, CHT got that #17 spot over Lussick.



The Meat​

Here’s an Excel sheet of all the positional changes made throughout the season, based on the original “AW’s preferred team.” Hopefully, it highlights what combinations we were trying to train with vs. what we actually had to play with. I also added the result, opponent, and home/away context to see how this affected the team.

Quick Caveats:
  • Home is only considered home if it’s in NZ. Otherwise, I marked it as away. I don’t think there’s a home advantage without a “home field.”
  • If Egan was playing (even if benched initially), I counted him as the hooker.
  • The interchange is all over the place. So:
    • The 14th is used as impact/prop cover,
    • The 15th is second-row cover,
    • The 16th is another prop cover,
    • The 17th is hooker/half cover.

View: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQoLHL2JgAXjmDU--qHM8Qu3a_3QZQFaJl32H8Wah1O8SHxJB3Jz7aynjiiIiTQq8_HAT0WQzfrBIjk/pubhtml


But that’s not the only thing.
Here is another Excel sheet of all the Warriors’ player interchanges, including those who didn’t actually get subbed on. This shows how changes in our rotation affect the interchange system and how effectively it was used overall—especially since most of the chopping and changing happened on our bench.

Example stat from this second set:

Above is a quick count of zero-play-time games—where we effectively burned a bench slot. Much of it seemed tied to hooker cover... There's more to dive into, but I'd rather just post all the info first before it becomes yet another unfinished mini-project.



View: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTxq-_GJt4Yw5UlJwgtI5clhSFpARXWXNms9AJdRnGbUoTInZnen2mFxNu20ASbyrv9RTSNG64dVgYf/pubhtml

Anyway happy new years eve everyone!
Click to expand...

You’ve spent some time on that. Awesome. Happy New Year’s Eve. Stay safe if you’re having a big one
 
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roguei said:
Disclaimer: Bit of a long post. TL;DR: some compiled stats for preferred positions, substitutions from injury, and the management of our interchanges.

This is just a breakdown of how injuries shaped how the squad looked for the 2024 season. Hopfully highlighting that some of the chocies made in who goes where, was more of brakedown of who's avaliable. To make predicting the team for 2025 a little bit easier. And give people context to why some players were playing the way they were last season. Not the whole picture of course. But some context.

Context:
I think AW's preferred team for 2024 is as follows:
Interchange
I think the only dispute here will be over the bench positions and Jackson Ford. So I'll go over my reasoning for those, as the rest (in my opinion) were set in stone. Simply put:
  • (14) Walker as the main “super-sub” utility. Mainly prop/lock
  • (15) Niukore as the second-row forward or prop rotation
  • (16) Tevaga as the middle-prop bench cover
  • (17) Harris-Tavita as the hooking/halves insurance
Walker is a given.
Niukore was training as a prop/middle, but as injuries mounted, he was our go-to second-row sub.
Tevaga there was never a time this year we got that “one-two combo” off the bench—i.e., the “bald brothers.” Whenever Jazz was on the bench, Walker was either injured or playing lock. His position last year was just all over the place. So this was quite hard to pin down. It could of also gone to Afoa. But as soon as jazz was back up. Even Ale seemed to be more a better pick in AW's eyes.
Harris-Tavita is interesting. I don't think it's Lussick, and here's why: Lussick played 15 games (4 filling in for Egan, 3 on the bench but never subbed on—so effectively 8 real “on-field” games). All those “real” games occurred when CHT was unavailable (injury) or starting at #6. There were also 5 games with CHT out for injury/HIA and 4 “not selected” rounds.
The only times Lussick was picked over CHT were Round 1 and Round 26. I'm striking off Round 26 as a “mistake,” because that was one of Lussick’s 3 bench-only games. Which means in every other opportunity, CHT got that #17 spot over Lussick.



The Meat​

Here’s an Excel sheet of all the positional changes made throughout the season, based on the original “AW’s preferred team.” Hopefully, it highlights what combinations we were trying to train with vs. what we actually had to play with. I also added the result, opponent, and home/away context to see how this affected the team.

Quick Caveats:
  • Home is only considered home if it’s in NZ. Otherwise, I marked it as away. I don’t think there’s a home advantage without a “home field.”
  • If Egan was playing (even if benched initially), I counted him as the hooker.
  • The interchange is all over the place. So:
    • The 14th is used as impact prop/utility cover,
    • The 15th is second-row/prop cover,
    • The 16th is another prop cover,
    • The 17th is hooker/half cover.

View: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQoLHL2JgAXjmDU--qHM8Qu3a_3QZQFaJl32H8Wah1O8SHxJB3Jz7aynjiiIiTQq8_HAT0WQzfrBIjk/pubhtml


But that’s not the only thing.
Here is another Excel sheet of all the Warriors’ player interchanges, including those who didn’t actually get subbed on. This shows how changes in our rotation affect the interchange system and how effectively it was used overall—especially since most of the chopping and changing happened on our bench.

Example stat from this second set:

Above is a quick count of zero-play-time games—where we effectively burned a bench slot. Much of it seemed tied to hooker cover... There's more to dive into, but I'd rather just post all the info first before it becomes yet another unfinished mini-project.



View: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTxq-_GJt4Yw5UlJwgtI5clhSFpARXWXNms9AJdRnGbUoTInZnen2mFxNu20ASbyrv9RTSNG64dVgYf/pubhtml

Anyway happy new years eve everyone!
Click to expand...

Phenomenal stuff! Some really cool analysis in here. Have a great new years!
 
roguei said:
Disclaimer: Bit of a long post. TL;DR: some compiled stats for preferred positions, substitutions from injury, and the management of our interchanges.

This is just a breakdown of how injuries shaped how the squad looked for the 2024 season. Hopfully highlighting that some of the chocies made in who goes where, was more of brakedown of who's avaliable. To make predicting the team for 2025 a little bit easier. And give people context to why some players were playing the way they were last season. Not the whole picture of course. But some context.

Context:
I think AW's preferred team for 2024 is as follows:
Interchange
I think the only dispute here will be over the bench positions and Jackson Ford. So I'll go over my reasoning for those, as the rest (in my opinion) were set in stone. Simply put:
  • (14) Walker as the main “super-sub” utility. Mainly prop/lock
  • (15) Niukore as the second-row forward or prop rotation
  • (16) Tevaga as the middle-prop bench cover
  • (17) Harris-Tavita as the hooking/halves insurance
Walker is a given.
Niukore was training as a prop/middle, but as injuries mounted, he was our go-to second-row sub.
Tevaga there was never a time this year we got that “one-two combo” off the bench—i.e., the “bald brothers.” Whenever Jazz was on the bench, Walker was either injured or playing lock. His position last year was just all over the place. So this was quite hard to pin down. It could of also gone to Afoa. But as soon as jazz was back up. Even Ale seemed to be more a better pick in AW's eyes.
Harris-Tavita is interesting. I don't think it's Lussick, and here's why: Lussick played 15 games (4 filling in for Egan, 3 on the bench but never subbed on—so effectively 8 real “on-field” games). All those “real” games occurred when CHT was unavailable (injury) or starting at #6. There were also 5 games with CHT out for injury/HIA and 4 “not selected” rounds.
The only times Lussick was picked over CHT were Round 1 and Round 26. I'm striking off Round 26 as a “mistake,” because that was one of Lussick’s 3 bench-only games. Which means in every other opportunity, CHT got that #17 spot over Lussick.



The Meat​

Here’s an Excel sheet of all the positional changes made throughout the season, based on the original “AW’s preferred team.” Hopefully, it highlights what combinations we were trying to train with vs. what we actually had to play with. I also added the result, opponent, and home/away context to see how this affected the team.

Quick Caveats:
  • Home is only considered home if it’s in NZ. Otherwise, I marked it as away. I don’t think there’s a home advantage without a “home field.”
  • If Egan was playing (even if benched initially), I counted him as the hooker.
  • The interchange is all over the place. So:
    • The 14th is used as impact prop/utility cover,
    • The 15th is second-row/prop cover,
    • The 16th is another prop cover,
    • The 17th is hooker/half cover.

View: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQoLHL2JgAXjmDU--qHM8Qu3a_3QZQFaJl32H8Wah1O8SHxJB3Jz7aynjiiIiTQq8_HAT0WQzfrBIjk/pubhtml


But that’s not the only thing.
Here is another Excel sheet of all the Warriors’ player interchanges, including those who didn’t actually get subbed on. This shows how changes in our rotation affect the interchange system and how effectively it was used overall—especially since most of the chopping and changing happened on our bench.

Example stat from this second set:

Above is a quick count of zero-play-time games—where we effectively burned a bench slot. Much of it seemed tied to hooker cover... There's more to dive into, but I'd rather just post all the info first before it becomes yet another unfinished mini-project.



View: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTxq-_GJt4Yw5UlJwgtI5clhSFpARXWXNms9AJdRnGbUoTInZnen2mFxNu20ASbyrv9RTSNG64dVgYf/pubhtml

Anyway happy new years eve everyone!
Click to expand...

Amazing amount of work - impressed, also a little scared...

When looking at it like that - just the bare facts of time on field, the conclusion has to be the preferred team never really got out there - and then you hit round 11... Of course the preference will have had to have changed to an extent on circumstance but even over time there's never enough of a run in the grind of the season to get a new preferred first team... which confirms the argument you have to get your formula and your expected contingencies pretty much right at the very start of the season, if only to give you some slack to make the best change when you will need to... fuck being a coach, basically
 
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roguei said:
Disclaimer: Bit of a long post. TL;DR: some compiled stats for preferred positions, substitutions from injury, and the management of our interchanges.

This is just a breakdown of how injuries shaped how the squad looked for the 2024 season. Hopfully highlighting that some of the chocies made in who goes where, was more of brakedown of who's avaliable. To make predicting the team for 2025 a little bit easier. And give people context to why some players were playing the way they were last season. Not the whole picture of course. But some context.

Context:
I think AW's preferred team for 2024 is as follows:
Interchange
I think the only dispute here will be over the bench positions and Jackson Ford. So I'll go over my reasoning for those, as the rest (in my opinion) were set in stone. Simply put:
  • (14) Walker as the main “super-sub” utility. Mainly prop/lock
  • (15) Niukore as the second-row forward or prop rotation
  • (16) Tevaga as the middle-prop bench cover
  • (17) Harris-Tavita as the hooking/halves insurance
Walker is a given.
Niukore was training as a prop/middle, but as injuries mounted, he was our go-to second-row sub.
Tevaga there was never a time this year we got that “one-two combo” off the bench—i.e., the “bald brothers.” Whenever Jazz was on the bench, Walker was either injured or playing lock. His position last year was just all over the place. So this was quite hard to pin down. It could of also gone to Afoa. But as soon as jazz was back up. Even Ale seemed to be more a better pick in AW's eyes.
Harris-Tavita is interesting. I don't think it's Lussick, and here's why: Lussick played 15 games (4 filling in for Egan, 3 on the bench but never subbed on—so effectively 8 real “on-field” games). All those “real” games occurred when CHT was unavailable (injury) or starting at #6. There were also 5 games with CHT out for injury/HIA and 4 “not selected” rounds.
The only times Lussick was picked over CHT were Round 1 and Round 26. I'm striking off Round 26 as a “mistake,” because that was one of Lussick’s 3 bench-only games. Which means in every other opportunity, CHT got that #17 spot over Lussick.



The Meat​

Here’s an Excel sheet of all the positional changes made throughout the season, based on the original “AW’s preferred team.” Hopefully, it highlights what combinations we were trying to train with vs. what we actually had to play with. I also added the result, opponent, and home/away context to see how this affected the team.

Quick Caveats:
  • Home is only considered home if it’s in NZ. Otherwise, I marked it as away. I don’t think there’s a home advantage without a “home field.”
  • If Egan was playing (even if benched initially), I counted him as the hooker.
  • The interchange is all over the place. So:
    • The 14th is used as impact prop/utility cover,
    • The 15th is second-row/prop cover,
    • The 16th is another prop cover,
    • The 17th is hooker/half cover.

View: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQoLHL2JgAXjmDU--qHM8Qu3a_3QZQFaJl32H8Wah1O8SHxJB3Jz7aynjiiIiTQq8_HAT0WQzfrBIjk/pubhtml


But that’s not the only thing.
Here is another Excel sheet of all the Warriors’ player interchanges, including those who didn’t actually get subbed on. This shows how changes in our rotation affect the interchange system and how effectively it was used overall—especially since most of the chopping and changing happened on our bench.

Example stat from this second set:

Above is a quick count of zero-play-time games—where we effectively burned a bench slot. Much of it seemed tied to hooker cover... There's more to dive into, but I'd rather just post all the info first before it becomes yet another unfinished mini-project.



View: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTxq-_GJt4Yw5UlJwgtI5clhSFpARXWXNms9AJdRnGbUoTInZnen2mFxNu20ASbyrv9RTSNG64dVgYf/pubhtml

Anyway happy new years eve everyone!
Click to expand...

Some people are in to stats and others aren't. Personally, I love a good spreadsheet. While stats aren't a guarantee of anything and single stats shouldn't be looked at in isolation, they do help to provide some context and trends versus the inevitable 'we are shit' to 'we are awesome' fluctuation of comments from week to week.

The work you have done above does seem to reinforce the perception and thoughts of many. Injuries were a big factor in our results this year. Add in the bench use, or lack of, the rotation of positions and those are three pretty big contributors to perhaps why we had some of the results we did in a competition that is very tight.

It's also interesting that when we did get a string of games going our way results wise we forced not only a change in player but also position - I'm talking the Storm game and in to the titans debacle. Then we switched back to what had been working. Then we did similar in Rd22 versus Eels and back in Rd23. I hope AW will have taken some key learnings from this season.

If we can get a good run injury wise and some consistency in selection with the right players in the right spots, I think 2025 can be a very good year for us.

Cant wait to see further work from you. No Pressure.

Have a great New Year
 
I work with numbers for a living Rogue and I am just wondering if I should run a correlation across your spreadsheet of who played vs the results. I will see what I am come up with.
 
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