General Your 2024 lineup

[Cces]

Sironen had 36 try causes. Predict CHT causes 33% less.

Just a wee correction. Sironen was only attributed with 6 Try Causes which on average per game was 18th in the squad. He did have 36 Ineffective Tackles which was also 18th on a per game basis

 

[Wrighty]

Just a wee correction. Sironen was only attributed with 6 Try Causes which on average per game was 18th in the squad. He did have 36 Ineffective Tackles which was also 18th on a per game basis

Ahh bit of dyslexia there by me in reading the table.

 

[hornbybrown]

1 CNK
2 DWZ
3 Berry
4 RTS
5 Montoya
6 Martian/Metcalf I can’t split them
7 SJ
8 AFB
9 Egan
10 Barnett
11 Ford
12 Capewell
13 Tohu
14 CHT
15 Walker
16 Nikuroe (spelling?)
17 Ale/ Afoa/ Maiu again spelling

 

[Inruin]

1 CNK
2 DWZ
3 Berry
4 RTS
5 Montoya
6 Martian/Metcalf I can’t split them
7 SJ
8 AFB
9 Egan
10 Barnett
11 Ford
12 Capewell
13 Tohu
14 CHT
15 Walker
16 Nikuroe (spelling?)
17 Ale/ Afoa/ Maiu again spelling

Has to be Martian at 6 doesn't it? He would be out of this world playing in the halves for us.

 

[hornbybrown]

Has to be Martian at 6 doesn't it? He would be out of this world playing in the halves for us.

Lol autocorrect strikes again, But I do lean TMM because I think Webby reallys places a emphasis on defence

 

[Inruin]

Lol autocorrect strikes again, But I do lean TMM because I think Webby reallys places a emphasis on defence

Its going to be an interesting team naming Tuesday for that first round game. Probably only who plays 6, who makes way for RTS and the make up of the last one or two bench spots that are in contention

 

[Wrighty]

1 CNK
2 DWZ
3 Berry
4 RTS
5 Montoya
6 Martian/Metcalf I can’t split them
7 SJ
8 AFB
9 Egan
10 Barnett
11 Ford
12 Capewell
13 Tohu
14 CHT
15 Walker
16 Nikuroe (spelling?)
17 Ale/ Afoa/ Maiu again spelling

Good post. I am personally fervently against Ford starting - I have him as depth of the bench for 20 minutes per game. Or starting in games where there are injuries to other second rowers.

8 AFB
9 Egan
10 Barnett
11 Niukore
12 Capewell
13 Harris

14 Walker
15 Ford
16 Person X
17 Person Y

 

[JaggedJ]

6 and bench hooker are our two most pressing questions. Everything else seems pretty stable.

 

[Horriors2013]

This is not the perfect place for this analysis but it is close enough and I don't want to start a new thread.
It is Wrighty's 2024 line up analysis

In my 2023 line up analysis amidst some criticism for how crude my analysis was I predicted we would leak 150 less points simply by Ed Kosi being much improved from the nightmare he was in 2022 and more importantly replacing Walsh's ghastly defence with the best defensive fullback in the league CNK.

How well did my prediction do?

In 2023 we gave up 448 points compared to 700 the year before. We gave up 252 point less. Must have been Websters coaching as well as some of the factors I predicted.

Wrighty's 2024 analysis

The value I will use for a try is 5.5 points = 4 points plus 75% conversion rate

1) RTS replaces Williame in the squad and one of Berry/Pompey in the 13.
Prediction: RTS will improve the offence by 1 extra converted try every second game by either directly scoring, laying on a try assist, or creating space for others by drawing defenders marking up on him and leaving others free.
5.5 points X 24 games/2 = 66 more points on offence

2) Kurt Capewell for Curran
Prediction: Capewell will improve the offence by 1 extra converted try every 5th game
5.5 points X 24 games/5 = 26.4 more points on offence

3) CHT for Sironen
Prediction: CHT if he plays off the bench in Sironen's role will greatly improve our defence as Sironen was awful on D. Sironen had 40 missed tackles in 744 minutes played last season. That's the most misses per minutes played in the warriors in 2023. Maybe CHT misses 33% less. Sironen had 36 try causes. Predict CHT causes 33% less.
36*33%X5.5 points = 66 points less

	2023​
	Warriors	Storm	Broncos	Panthers
For	572​	627​	639​	645​
Against	448​	459​	425​	312​
Wrighty's warriors prediction ceterus perebus
	2024​	% Improvement
For	664​	16%
Against	382​	14.7%

Is a 16% improvement in offence and 14.7% improvement in defence possible? We are improving 3 spots out of 17 with considerable improvement in each spot. 3 out of 17 is 17% of team for what that is worth. What makes me feel comfortable about this prediction is that even if RTS contributes an added try every 3 games and not 2 games, there will be added scoreboard pressure and momentum from when he does score to snowball into more points overall and likewise analysis for defence.

The three guys we are acquiring have all played either test match or SOO. The players they replace will be developing NRL players who are yet to reach the stage of being NRL standard. So I hope we do see improvements in offence and defence of this magnitude/

Lastly, just like last year, this analysis is provided for entertainment value. Do not take it too seriously. It is to add to the content on the forum without claiming to be academically robust.

Well fuck... E=MC².

 

[hornbybrown]

6 and bench hooker are our two most pressing questions. Everything else seems pretty stable.

I think bench Hooker is CHT, played well there for Samoa and also covers 1,3,4,6 and 7 plus probably can play 13 if need be. He is the perfect 14

 

[hornbybrown]

Good post. I am personally fervently against Ford starting - I have him as depth of the bench for 20 minutes per game. Or starting in games where there are injuries to other second rowers.

8 AFB
9 Egan
10 Barnett
11 Niukore
12 Capewell
13 Harris

14 Walker
15 Ford
16 Person X
17 Person Y

I hear you I was real close to putting Niukore there but I think he moves to the middle this year maybe even takes Barney’s spot and Barnett goes to the bench.
My team is the team I think Webby names

 

[Noitall]

Rugby league: The moment coach Andrew Webster realised NZ Warriors had become genuine NRL title contenders

"I thought that was when the boys finally really understood what they were doing was going to work and they had faith in it."

www.newshub.co.nz

Love it.

 

[Wrighty]

I hear you I was real close to putting Niukore there but I think he moves to the middle this year maybe even takes Barney’s spot and Barnett goes to the bench.
My team is the team I think Webby names

Thanks for your response. You have converted me. Putting one of Barnett or Niukore as a middle on the bench gives us a decent bench and impact in the middle of the game. I kind of like Niukore to start though and Barnett on the bench as you mentioned in your post.

 

[Wrighty]

I hear you I was real close to putting Niukore there but I think he moves to the middle this year maybe even takes Barney’s spot and Barnett goes to the bench.
My team is the team I think Webby names

I have been thinking more about this. I remember seeing Niukore in the middle for Eels once and he did very few hit ups.

 

[Cces]

I have been thinking more about this. I remember seeing Niukore in the middle for Eels once and he did very few hit ups.

He averages 90.4m pg as a starting Second Rower. When his Prop/Lock stats are combined it's 107.1m pg. He pushed out a 141m game for us at Prop in 2023. His career high game in terms of yardage was as a Centre but next 2 best performances were as a starting Lock

 

[Warriorsitsouryear]

Thanks for your response. You have converted me. Putting one of Barnett or Niukore as a middle on the bench gives us a decent bench and impact in the middle of the game. I kind of like Niukore to start though and Barnett on the bench as you mentioned in your post.

I like Niukore in the middle - I thought he should have had more time there next year. However, I am caught whether to start him or play from the bench.

Bench - means probably less minutes but could make sure we always have 1 big powerful prop when Addin is off. Drawback is less minutes when he can be one of our most damaging power runners.

Starting - Addin and Niukore to rip spreads into the opposition. Penrith do this with their best two props as do the Broncos - in fact only Storm don’t with NAS on the bench. Drawback - less power impact from the bench. This could be minimised if Addin and Niukore both start and Webby finds a way to keep one on at all times. Niukore to the bench at 25 mins then replaces Addin 10 minutes into the second half - Addin comes back on for the last 15 mins. Leave that to Webby.

That could mean Barnett covers more in the second row as Harris will also prop when Walker plays 13. Will also mean we might carry CHT on the bench then too if he isn’t starting 6.

 

[sup42]

This is not the perfect place for this analysis but it is close enough and I don't want to start a new thread.
It is Wrighty's 2024 line up analysis

In my 2023 line up analysis amidst some criticism for how crude my analysis was I predicted we would leak 150 less points simply by Ed Kosi being much improved from the nightmare he was in 2022 and more importantly replacing Walsh's ghastly defence with the best defensive fullback in the league CNK.

How well did my prediction do?

In 2023 we gave up 448 points compared to 700 the year before. We gave up 252 point less. Must have been Websters coaching as well as some of the factors I predicted.

Wrighty's 2024 analysis

The value I will use for a try is 5.5 points = 4 points plus 75% conversion rate

1) RTS replaces Williame in the squad and one of Berry/Pompey in the 13.
Prediction: RTS will improve the offence by 1 extra converted try every second game by either directly scoring, laying on a try assist, or creating space for others by drawing defenders marking up on him and leaving others free.
5.5 points X 24 games/2 = 66 more points on offence

2) Kurt Capewell for Curran
Prediction: Capewell will improve the offence by 1 extra converted try every 5th game
5.5 points X 24 games/5 = 26.4 more points on offence

3) CHT for Sironen
Prediction: CHT if he plays off the bench in Sironen's role will greatly improve our defence as Sironen was awful on D. Sironen had 40 missed tackles in 744 minutes played last season. That's the most misses per minutes played in the warriors in 2023. Maybe CHT misses 33% less. Sironen had 36 try causes. Predict CHT causes 33% less.
36*33%X5.5 points = 66 points less

	2023​
	Warriors	Storm	Broncos	Panthers
For	572​	627​	639​	645​
Against	448​	459​	425​	312​
Wrighty's warriors prediction ceterus perebus
	2024​	% Improvement
For	664​	16%
Against	382​	14.7%

Is a 16% improvement in offence and 14.7% improvement in defence possible? We are improving 3 spots out of 17 with considerable improvement in each spot. 3 out of 17 is 17% of team for what that is worth. What makes me feel comfortable about this prediction is that even if RTS contributes an added try every 3 games and not 2 games, there will be added scoreboard pressure and momentum from when he does score to snowball into more points overall and likewise analysis for defence.

The three guys we are acquiring have all played either test match or SOO. The players they replace will be developing NRL players who are yet to reach the stage of being NRL standard. So I hope we do see improvements in offence and defence of this magnitude/

Lastly, just like last year, this analysis is provided for entertainment value. Do not take it too seriously. It is to add to the content on the forum without claiming to be academically robust.

I like what you are trying to do here.
Instinctually your margins seem on the high side.

Obviously it would be nice if it pans out that way (no one will be laughing then eh Wrighty).

The issue with the Warriors is that they have this habit of coming off an off-season and weirdly looking as though they have never played together before, this is exacerbated by the introduction of new players and this injury curse where they never have the same Halves pairing playing season after season together.

Webster countered the cold start clunkiness with a simple defense minded attack plan. For all the talk from him about being better this year, I strongly suspect he will have to start simple again, which means a slow build up, less try scoring opportunities created, and probably some settling period for defensive combos with new players (RTS and CHT might both be learning new positions as well as making partnerships with their respective sections in a Warriors structure).

Anywho admittedly I am one who would just be happy to see us repeat last year.....

 

[Neo]

I like Niukore in the middle - I thought he should have had more time there next year. However, I am caught whether to start him or play from the bench.

Bench - means probably less minutes but could make sure we always have 1 big powerful prop when Addin is off. Drawback is less minutes when he can be one of our most damaging power runners.

Starting - Addin and Niukore to rip spreads into the opposition. Penrith do this with their best two props as do the Broncos - in fact only Storm don’t with NAS on the bench. Drawback - less power impact from the bench. This could be minimised if Addin and Niukore both start and Webby finds a way to keep one on at all times. Niukore to the bench at 25 mins then replaces Addin 10 minutes into the second half - Addin comes back on for the last 15 mins. Leave that to Webby.

That could mean Barnett covers more in the second row as Harris will also prop when Walker plays 13. Will also mean we might carry CHT on the bench then too if he isn’t starting 6.

If Niukore doesn’t start and both Capewell and Ford start (both consumate professionals who will do all the 1%) then who targets the opposition half? I thought Niukore was brilliant this year in leaving the opposition half having to do a lot of tough defensive work by targeting them

 

[BabylonPink]

You could start niukore in the second row then move him to prop after 20. Then bring on Ford or similar..... 1 interchange.

 

[FormerlyJamesW]

Anywho admittedly I am one who would just be happy to see us repeat last year.....

One step further would be pretty great though....