General Your 2024 lineup

[Ferdie]

My thinking for the pack is we've got 2 x prop and 1 x lock in the middle, so 240 minutes (3x80) worth of time to fill each game. Then there's the edge forwards, 2 x second rowers, who take up another 160 minutes (2x80). So 400 minutes all up each game.
Allowing for AFB, Tohu and Walker to play around 60 minutes each in the middle of the park. That takes up 180 minutes of the 240 middles minutes straight away.
Capewell will take 80 of the 160 minutes on the edge.
Barnett will stake a claim for at least 40 of the remaining 60 minutes in the middle.
With only 20 minutes remaining in the middle, Niukore will likely spend time jumping between the middle and the edge, possibly starting the first 20 in the middle, then having a spell before jumping out to the edge for the final 30 minutes of the game.
Ford gets the first 50 minutes on the edge, each game and will likely be replaced over the next couple of seasons by the young guns coming through.
But for the time being my lineup and interchanges would look like this.
Starting:
8 AFB
10 Niukore
11 Ford
12 Capewell
13 Tohu.

Walker for Niukore at 20 mins.
(Leaving Middles: 8 AFB, 10 Tohu, 13 Walker. Edge: 11 Ford, 12 Capewell on the field).

Barnett for AFB at 30 mins.
(Leaving Middles: 8 Barnett, 10 Tohu, 13 Walker. Edge: 11 Ford, 12 Capewell on the field).

AFB for Tohu and Niukore for Ford at 50 mins.
(Leaving Middles: 8 AFB, 10 Barnett, 13 Walker. Edge: 11 Niukore, 12 Capewell)

Tohu for Barnett at 70 minutes (option to replace walker instead for extra physicality in last 10).
(Leaving Middles: 8 AFB, 10 Tohu, 13 Walker. Edge: 11 Niukore, 12 Capewell).

I would also consider starting CHT at hooker and bringing Egan on after 20, the impact of Egan and Walker coming on together could ignite the game.

 

[Noitall]

I would also consider starting CHT at hooker and bringing Egan on after 20, the impact of Egan and Walker coming on together could ignite the game

With Walker igniting the game when coming on at lock, I think they need to zone in on a particular area where CHT can have an impact and ignite. He certainly played well in his game at dummy half for Samoa, but you’re probably right. Egan can play 80 but probably more efficient with less minutes? Susceptible to a head knock, is this technique? Egan could be the one to ignite things more than CHT can? I guess the upside to CHT playing dummy half is another kick option, and one that can kick 40/20’s. That and physicality on defence.

 

[watcher]

Two players who tend to upset fans but I can see would be great to play with are Jazz and CHT. I believe that it is not the size of the dog in the fight. It is the size of fight in the dog.

I played Union in the 70s 80s and part of the nineties in several Unions. Every Marist club had a Jazz. A smaller wiry bugger always niggling who could put you off your game, you couldn't hurt the little, usually ranges, because we bloody tried. That is the value of Jazz, CHT is similar.

 

[Defence]

Fullback: CNK (replacement Taine Tuaupiki) then Setu Tu
I am of a mind to keep RTS and DWZ in the three quarter line and use the young guns at fb if CNK is out.

Right Wing: DWZ (Replacement Ed Kosi) third Setu Tu as my third option Right wing, Tu has the speed to replace DWZ but Ed has proved himself as a reliable filler.

Right Center: Rocco Berry (back up Ali Leiatua)

Left Center RTS (back up Ali, I would prefer Ali gets settled into one side at center, but he is good enough to be given either berth as a developmental challenge.

Left Winger Montoya

Stand off: Really tough split for me between TMM and Metcalf. I would go TMM first to see how he looks after a full preseason (although I read about the moon boot).
I have no complaints if they go with Metcalf.
Third option CHT.

Halfback: Shaun Johnson (back up gets a bit trickier, CHT played like a 7 when he was at 6) But I am guessing I would put TMM at half and Metcalf at six, with CHT being the next halfback option over Metcalf.
I know Metcalf fancies himself as a seven, but we did not see any flavor of it in his Six play.

Props: Gonna bundle left and right prop together because the reality is that we are thin on Fg experience at Prop apart from the no brainer selection of AFB.

The other starter I would roll out is Barnett. I do like the idea of Marata coming off the bench and giving the starters big minutes to suit. Or we go all in on Zyon Maiu’u as the premier bench prop option over Marata, or....we use both these big hard runners off our bench...now I really like that option, but it makes things trickier as far as leaving only two bench spots for a lot of good players to miss out.


Hooker Wade Egan. I would run Walker as the back up hooker and try make Wade an eighty minute dummy half.

Edge backrowers: Kurt Capwell, Jackson Ford.

Lock: Tohu Harris back up Walker if Tohu is injured.

Bench:

Jazz Tevanga (Bald bros come on together to spell Tohu and Capwell/Ford).
Walker
Marata Niukore
Zyon Maiu’u

What do u see in zyon to leap frog ale and Bunty?
I’m a big ale fan so he’s my man but haven’t seen much of zyon tbh.

 

[sup42]

What do u see in zyon to leap frog ale and Bunty?
I’m a big ale fan so he’s my man but haven’t seen much of zyon tbh.

Yeah Ale is better than Zyon Maiu’u for the conventional middle forward role.
My pack is just experimental.

I like Zyon Maiu’u's footwork bro, he is an instinctive stepper and tackle breaker, if they get his physique right he could be a very damaging guy.

Ale and Bunty are more realistic options I concede.

 

[Warriorsfan92]

Yeah Ale is better than Zyon Maiu’u for the conventional middle forward role.
My pack is just experimental.

I like Zyon Maiu’u's footwork bro, he is an instinctive stepper and tackle breaker, if they get his physique right he could be a very damaging guy.

Ale and Bunty are more realistic options I concede.

He’s a bit like Leniu, a young version. He’s a bit of a rip shit for 20 type player.

 

[Wrighty]

This is not the perfect place for this analysis but it is close enough and I don't want to start a new thread.
It is Wrighty's 2024 line up analysis

In my 2023 line up analysis amidst some criticism for how crude my analysis was I predicted we would leak 150 less points simply by Ed Kosi being much improved from the nightmare he was in 2022 and more importantly replacing Walsh's ghastly defence with the best defensive fullback in the league CNK.

How well did my prediction do?

In 2023 we gave up 448 points compared to 700 the year before. We gave up 252 point less. Must have been Websters coaching as well as some of the factors I predicted.

Wrighty's 2024 analysis

The value I will use for a try is 5.5 points = 4 points plus 75% conversion rate

1) RTS replaces Williame in the squad and one of Berry/Pompey in the 13.
Prediction: RTS will improve the offence by 1 extra converted try every second game by either directly scoring, laying on a try assist, or creating space for others by drawing defenders marking up on him and leaving others free.
5.5 points X 24 games/2 = 66 more points on offence

2) Kurt Capewell for Curran
Prediction: Capewell will improve the offence by 1 extra converted try every 5th game
5.5 points X 24 games/5 = 26.4 more points on offence

3) CHT for Sironen
Prediction: CHT if he plays off the bench in Sironen's role will greatly improve our defence as Sironen was awful on D. Sironen had 40 missed tackles in 744 minutes played last season. That's the most misses per minutes played in the warriors in 2023. Maybe CHT misses 33% less. Sironen had 36 try causes. Predict CHT causes 33% less.
36*33%X5.5 points = 66 points less

	2023​
	Warriors	Storm	Broncos	Panthers
For	572​	627​	639​	645​
Against	448​	459​	425​	312​
Wrighty's warriors prediction ceterus perebus
	2024​	% Improvement
For	664​	16%
Against	382​	14.7%

Is a 16% improvement in offence and 14.7% improvement in defence possible? We are improving 3 spots out of 17 with considerable improvement in each spot. 3 out of 17 is 17% of team for what that is worth. What makes me feel comfortable about this prediction is that even if RTS contributes an added try every 3 games and not 2 games, there will be added scoreboard pressure and momentum from when he does score to snowball into more points overall and likewise analysis for defence.

The three guys we are acquiring have all played either test match or SOO. The players they replace will be developing NRL players who are yet to reach the stage of being NRL standard. So I hope we do see improvements in offence and defence of this magnitude/

Lastly, just like last year, this analysis is provided for entertainment value. Do not take it too seriously. It is to add to the content on the forum without claiming to be academically robust.

 

[wizard of Tauranga]

This is the perfect place for this analysis but it is close enough and I don't want to start a new thread.
It is Wrighty's 2024 line up analysis

In my 2023 line up analysis amidst some criticism for how crude my analysis was I predicted we would leak 150 less points simply by Ed Kosi being much improved from the nightmare he was in 2022 and more importantly replacing Walsh's ghastly defence with the best defensive fullback in the league CNK.

How well did my prediction do?

In 2023 we gave up 448 points compared to 700 the year before. We gave up 252 point less. Must have been Websters coaching as well as some of the factors I predicted.

Wrighty's 2024 analysis

The value I will use for a try is 5.5 points = 4 points plus 75% conversion rate

1) RTS replaces Williame in the squad and one of Berry/Pompey in the 13.
Prediction: RTS will improve the offence by 1 extra converted try every third game by either directly scoring, laying on a try assist, or creating space for others by drawing defenders marking up on him and leaving others free.
5.5 points X 24 games/2 = 66 more points on offence

2) Kurt Capewell for Curran
Prediction: Capewell will improve the offence by 1 extra converted try every 5th game
5.5 points X 24 games/5 = 26.4 more points on offence

3) CHT for Sironen
Prediction: CHT if he plays off the bench in Sironen's role will greatly improve our defence as Sironen was awful on D. Sironen had 40 missed tackles in 744 minutes played last season. That's the most misses per minutes played in the warriors in 2023. Maybe CHT misses 33% less. Sironen had 36 try causes. Predict CHT causes 33% less.
36*33%X5.5 points = 66 points less

	2023​
	Warriors	Storm	Broncos	Panthers
For	572​	627​	639​	645​
Against	448​	459​	425​	312​
Wrighty's warriors prediction ceterus perebus
	2024​	% Improvement
For	664​	16%
Against	382​	14.7%

Is a 16% improvement in offence and 14.7% improvement in defence possible? We are improving 3 spots out of 17 with considerable improvement in each spot. 3 out of 17 is 17% of team for what that is worth. What makes me feel comfortable about this prediction is that even if RTS contributes an added try every 3 games and not 2 games, there will be added scoreboard pressure and momentum from when he does score to snowball into more points overall and likewise analysis for defence.

The three guys we are acquiring have all played either test match or SOO. The players they replace will be developing NRL players who are yet to reach the stage of being NRL standard. So I hope we do see improvements in offence and defence of this magnitude/

Lastly, just like last year, this analysis is provided for entertainment value. Do not take it too seriously. It is to add to the content on the forum without claiming to be academically robust.

Best attack and second best defence next year, based on this years stats

Can’t wait!

The Warriors should be clearing out the trophy cabinet ready for our first premiership based in this analysis!

 

[Wrighty]

Best attack and second best defence next year, based on this years stats

Can’t wait!

The Warriors should be clearing out the trophy cabinet ready for our first premiership based in this analysis!

I can see us winning the minor premiership, less sure on the grand final.

 

[John Nick]

Best attack and second best defence next year, based on this years stats

Can’t wait!

The Warriors should be clearing out the trophy cabinet ready for our first premiership based in this analysis!

Shit loads of stuff gotta go right before I would be thinking about it.
Not out of the question though.

 

[Ref]

CHT appears to be on the bench in an overwhelming majority of teams.
Many have him as a straight swap for Sironen.

But CHT has never played in the forwards except a few games at hooker for his country of choice at the time.

It’s a luxury we haven’t got room for.
Our bench is Walker, Jazz and two bigger guys and if Egan goes down we make do with Walker or Jazz.

 

[cock_o]

CHT appears to be on the bench in an overwhelming majority of teams.
Many have him as a straight swap for Sironen.

But CHT has never played in the forwards except a few games at hooker for his country of choice at the time.

It’s a luxury we haven’t got room for.
Our bench is Walker, Jazz and two bigger guys and if Egan goes down we make do with Walker or Jazz.

If the bench is Jazz Walker and 2 bigger guys Thats 4 middle forwards. Definitely not a good bench

 

[Defence]

With his history I dont want Egan playing 80 every week- he’s too important.
He plays better when he gets a spell anyway.

 

[Wrighty]

Webster in his interview a month ago said SJ is a lock for 7 unless he shows up to training camp with an attitude. And that the 6 spot is an open contest. He wants one of CHT/TMM/Metcalf to make the decision for him and claim it. The preseason games will probably be the decoder.
CHT is in the mixer for the 6 spot or for Sironen;s utility spot on the bench. If he gets Sironen's spot he won't play second row like Siro did. CHT if he was numver 17 will play 15 minutes of hooker every game and probably the last 15 minutes of the game at stand off to give us fresh legs on offence and a fresh person in the defensive line.
CHT as a utility doesn't cover all that many spots... he offers halves cover, fullback cover, and hooker cover. The full back cover will be useful given the large number of in game injuries CNK gets. If a wing went down technically he could cover wing as well but he has no speed so would be a very poor wing replacement. They won't use him to cover centre. They will continue to use Niukore as our centre cover should we lose one in a game. I don't see them sending CHT to fullback and CNK to centre.

Ultimately my view is all of TMM CHT and Metcalf are fricking injury prone players. CHT moreso because he recklessly tries to king hit people in tackles. All three of them will get time at stand off this year and whoever does the best in the time they get will keep the 6 jersey.
No one knows how CHT is going to pull up after a year away from league. They may be well tempted to start him 3 to 4 games in NSW cup and if I am a betting man that is what they will do based on webster's track record.

 

[Tragic]

If the bench is Jazz Walker and 2 bigger guys Thats 4 middle forwards. Definitely not a good bench

If we have our best team on then with that bench we have cover for every position in the case of an injury if you consider the following cover

Outside backs - niukore to centre Roger to wing it fullback

Halves - Egan to halves, jazz to hooker ( not great but it's in case of injury, Egan likes an injury so this might be our Achilles heal)

Forwards- the bench is full of em

 

[JustVisiting82]

If we have our best team on then with that bench we have cover for every position in the case of an injury

But of course the bench isn't just injury cover, it's for fresh legs and impact. Considering those last 2 things is it a bit of a waste to use that all on our 8, 10, and 13 positions? If we are wanting to still give decent minutes to AFB, Tohu, and Walker does that mean the rest of the middles are playing very short minutes at the expense of having some more impact at hooker or edge? Just food for thought.

 

[Tragic]

But of course the bench isn't just injury cover, it's for fresh legs and impact. Considering those last 2 things is it a bit of a waste to use that all on our 8, 10, and 13 positions? If we are wanting to still give decent minutes to AFB, Tohu, and Walker does that mean the rest of the middles are playing very short minutes at the expense of having some more impact at hooker or edge? Just food for thought.

Hooker- unless a youngster like fukofuka is on the bench we don't really have an impact hooker.

Edge- like to see that with one of the younger fellas, we have some interesting up and covers and sifakula had a taste already

 

[Noitall]

Every Shaun Johnson try assist of the 2023 season

NRL.com takes a look back at every Shaun Johnson try assist from the 2023 NRL Telstra Premiership season

www.nrl.com

Hope SJ has the same impact this year. Interesting in here he sets up 3 Pompey tries to 1 from Berry but so many assists for multiple players.

 

[Noitall]

New Year, New You: Who each NRL club needs to shine if they are to hit the heights in 2024

2023 is done and 2024 is hurtling towards the horizon for all 17 NRL clubs. With the new season looming, let's look at the…

www.theroar.com.au

AFB viewed as most important for us to shine.

 

[Noitall]

Yesterday had some back to back Warriors games throughout the day from over the years. I took notice of the games in the 2008, 2009 era and found the way Jarome Ropati was used interesting, I personally think he’s one of the best centres we’ve produced and if not for injuries could have been even better. I noticed a lot of scoots out of dummy half and a bit of a roaming role which made me think RTS should hopefully be in a similar mould.