General Your 2024 lineup

[Inruin]

I am usually quite good at coming up with observations but have run dry. Feel we as a team have discussed everything until some more developments happen
eg we acquire another player with our volkman cash.

Pre-season games are pretty soon
Sun 18 Feb Warriors vs Wests Tigers
Sat 24 Feb Warriors vs Dolphins

I don't know if you would want to, but if you do, you have predicted for and against with the new recruits and what that might mean for wins/losses. What do you think the effect of SJ being injured for 5-10 games would be? I know we are worse off obviously but what would the for and against per game effect of not having him in the team be?

 

[Wrighty]

I don't know if you would want to, but if you do, you have predicted for and against with the new recruits and what that might mean for wins/losses. What do you think the effect of SJ being injured for 5-10 games would be? I know we are worse off obviously but what would the for and against per game effect of not having him in the team be?

We scored 572 points in 24 matches last season. That is 23.8 points per game

In 2021 the year before SJ returned and we had bog standard halves we scored 453 points in 24 games
That is 18.9 points per game

So based on that crude analysis our points per game if SJ got injured for any stretch would go down (23.8-18.9)= 4.9 points per game

In terms of points conceeded I will pull that out of my guessonminator and say that with less scoreboard pressure from us the opppsition will score one more try per game. Converted tries worth 5.5 points based on 75% conversion rate.

So we would get roughly 5 points less and they would get 5 points more.

 

[watcher]

I have studied it closely and after drilling into the stats, including injuries team selections. Defensive alignments and errors I have come to the conclusion that if we score more points than the opposition every week we will win.

 

[Inruin]

We scored 572 points in 24 matches last season. That is 23.8 points per game

In 2021 the year before SJ returned and we had bog standard halves we scored 453 points in 24 games
That is 18.9 points per game

So based on that crude analysis our points per game if SJ got injured for any stretch would go down (23.8-18.9)= 4.9 points per game

In terms of points conceeded I will pull that out of my guessonminator and say that with less scoreboard pressure from us the opppsition will score one more try per game. Converted tries worth 5.5 points based on 75% conversion rate.

So we would get roughly 5 points less and they would get 5 points more.

Good work. I'm picking that 4.9 points less per game would be fairly conservative after last seasons form.

Average last season was 23.8 - 18.6 so a 5 point swing both ways means likely losses. Crude analysis but probably accurate enough. We lose any other player for a length of time and we could cover them, maybe a 1 point swing, maybe. We lose SJ and we can't cover that. He is pivotal to our success, more so than any other players in our squad.

 

[Wrighty]

I have studied it closely and after drilling into the stats, including injuries team selections. Defensive alignments and errors I have come to the conclusion that if we score more points than the opposition every week we will win.

I love Kiwi humour which is why I came back to NZ after living overseas many years,

 

[Wrighty]

Good work. I'm picking that 4.9 points less per game would be fairly conservative after last seasons form.

Average last season was 23.8 - 18.6 so a 5 point swing both ways means likely losses. Crude analysis but probably accurate enough. We lose any other player for a length of time and we could cover them, maybe a 1 point swing, maybe. We lose SJ and we can't cover that. He is pivotal to our success, more so than any other players in our squad.

It would be like starting the game with the score instead of being 0-0 it being Negative 5 to the Warriors and Zero to the opposition

Another perspective is percentages 4.9/23,8 is 21 percent less points game. So as a percentage you can really see SJs impact stand out starkly.

 

[Worried2Death]

It would be like starting the game with the score instead of being 0-0 it being Negative 5 to the Warriors and Zero to the opposition

Another perspective is percentages 4.9/23,8 is 21 percent less points game. So as a percentage you can really see SJs impact stand out starkly.

We have TMM, Metcalf and Walker to cover SJ now, do they add or detract from our 2021 halves stats Wrighty

 

[Wrighty]

We have TMM, Metcalf and Walker to cover SJ now, do they add or detract from our 2021 halves stats Wrighty

You forgot CHT who will according to many will end up as the 6 by season end and given he was one of the mainstay halves in 2021 then I think a 2024 non SJ halves pairing would feature him and as such be a much of a muchness with the 2021 halves. Walker was terribad as a half in 2023 when he played their by the way apart from his defence.

 

[Noitall]

We have TMM, Metcalf and Walker to cover SJ now, do they add or detract from our 2021 halves stats Wrighty

Reckon the 3 you mentioned can cover five eighth but with none notable kickers, I’m not sure who covers halfback? Would have been Volkman, guess it would be CHT or Metcalf with him having aspirations to be a halfback?

 

[Worried2Death]

You forgot CHT who will according to many will end up as the 6 by season end and given he was one of the mainstay halves in 2021 then I think a 2024 non SJ halves pairing would feature him and as such be a much of a muchness with the 2021 halves. Walker was terribad as a half in 2023 when he played their by the way apart from his defence.

Yeah didn't mention Chanel because he was here 2021/2, big difference between this year and then is Webby, but you're right Walker was pretty dire.
Metcalf would be interesting to watch at 7 to see if he's got it in him to be a dominant playmaker, he'd have to show much better vision.

 

[wizard of Tauranga]

I want us to either to blow out the other team or lose comfortably. Can't stand the close matches. My nerves get shot. I am not the sort that chews my nails but you get the picture. It isn't pleasant. I get too intense and feel I am on the field myself some days if that makes sense.
It's just awful to watch
Examples

a) Pompey kicks off to start the game....please don't kick it out on the full Pompey. Please. Anything but that. Pompey then proceeds to kick it two metres from the sideline instead of a nice safe kick in the middle of the field. My nerves are on edge watching it sail close to the side line. And feel relieved when they catch it and run.
b) We score a try. Then the stress of watching us field the kick off and praying we complete the set after points often to be dissapointed. And then we let the opposition back into the game.
c) Dallin hits the ball up and when returning a kick and just before being tackled does some crazy ass off load. Please catch it Pompey please?
d) Don't even get me started about how I feel in the last ten minutes of the game.

I used to enjoy the close matches and the intensity now I just want slam dunk victories by 20 points.

But according to your analysis, don’t we statistically want blow out loses and close wins?

When we win, don’t we want to just do enough so we save up lots of our already calculated attacking points, for games where the opposition scores plenty and we need to use up points beating them?

If we lose, don’t we want to make sure we lose by 20+ points so in future games there are less points to be scored against us based on our preseason analysis?

I’m sure Webby has them doing this to maximise best use of the points available under Wrighty’s analysis. Pompey and DWZ seem to be experts at controlling the flow of points, hence first picked every week!

 

[sydneywarrior92]

Yeah, I was livid. Been complaining about how we never get the Anzac game at home and when we finally do, it's the tits.

Fricken NRL.

What's wrong with tits?

 

[wizard of Tauranga]

What's wrong with tits?

They can be a challenge to get past…

Takes a lot of focus and self control not to get sucked into their distractions.

Great pleasure if we can conquer them though! Could be a great night…

 

[SJ2k]

The Tits at home for anzac is a gift from the NRL tbh. They're getting better but they're one of the few clubs that has just out and out been worse than the warriors forever. If things click we can be the ones giving out absolute beatings on Anzac.

 

[snake77]

The Tits at home for anzac is a gift from the NRL tbh. They're getting better but they're one of the few clubs that has just out and out been worse than the warriors forever. If things click we can be the ones giving out absolute beatings on Anzac.

I hope so. It didn't work too well last time we hosted them on ANZAC Day.

If the team performs like last year pretty much every home game should be a tough match for the opposition. Hopefully packed out ground every week with everyone waiting around to sing the team song and celebrate.

 

[BabylonPink]

Titans have decent halves and a good pack , serviceable backs. They should improve under Des.

 

[Horriors2013]

You forgot CHT who will according to many will end up as the 6 by season end and given he was one of the mainstay halves in 2021 then I think a 2024 non SJ halves pairing would feature him and as such be a much of a muchness with the 2021 halves. Walker was terribad as a half in 2023 when he played their by the way apart from his defence.

I think by season end CHT will be 7 and either TMM or Metcalfe 6. I don't see any other scenario. Metcalfe could even go FB if TMM takes 6. CNK and SJ, even Egan are not going to last much longer the way their bodies are looking.

 

[Tragic]

I think by season end CHT will be 7 and either TMM or Metcalfe 6. I don't see any other scenario. Metcalfe could even go FB if TMM takes 6. CNK and SJ, even Egan are not going to last much longer the way their bodies are looking.

I reckon to be top 4 you need a very good halfback, minimum one of the top 8 in the comp - gut feel, no data to back this up. CHT is not that, we need a better replacement for SJ or it will be tough times.

 

[Defence]

I reckon to be top 4 you need a very good halfback, minimum one of the top 8 in the comp - gut feel, no data to back this up. CHT is not that, we need a better replacement for SJ or it will be tough times.

Tend to agree but just to play devil’s advocate…
If u look at who most people would rank as the top 8 halfbacks.
Cleary
Sj
Dce
Hughes
Reynolds
Hunt
Moses
Hynes.
Most of them are in their 30s- Cleary is the youngest at 26- Cht is still 24.

 

[El Chuckie]

Tend to agree but just to play devil’s advocate…
If u look at who most people would rank as the top 8 halfbacks.
Cleary
Sj
Dce
Hughes
Reynolds
Hunt
Moses
Hynes.
Most of them are in their 30s- Cleary is the youngest at 26- Cht is still 24.

Good point. Really puts Cleary in perspective. If he avoids major injuries, he could be playing for another 6-8 years and he's already phenomenal. If you can hold onto - and nurture - a decent half through to 25, the long-term rewards are there. Halfback is so much about brains and vision, which really can only come from experience.