If we win today, there will be more points difference between us (4th) and the broncos (5th) than between us (4th) and the Raiders (1st). There's more chance we move up the ladder than us moving down imo. Not just Melbourne, but the Dogs have a tough run home too. Our rd 23 game against the dogs could be a battle for 2nd. So two home finals is not out of the question for us. I'd even suggest there is greater chance that we finish 2nd than there is that we finish outside the top 4.
We really can't control media narratives which are never going to favor us. But I really wish SJ or someone would just point out how ridiculous they are. For their narrative to make sense, broncos/penrith have to make up 2 games on us. If they go undefeated, they would have needed us to drop 2 games. With the Brisbane loss last night, they need us to lose 3 more times to finish the season. Given that we have the softest draw out of the top 4 to finish the year, that's really pushing it especially after our Newcastle win..
But let's entertain that for a moment. Broncos would have to go the rest of the season undefeated. They still have to play Melbourne twice, the dolphins (H), cowboys (A) and Newcastle (A). None of those games I would predict with any confidence in Brisbane's favor. It's actually easier to come up with a scenario where they miss the 8 than one where they overtake us in the 4.
Same calculus with Penrith. They have to play the entire top 4 except us again and all remaining opponents are in the 8. Could they go the whole year without a loss? Sure, but highly unlikely given that would amount to what would be a 13 game winning streak by that pt.
So case closed: we aren't finishing outside the four. The only question is where inside the four do we finish: top 2 or 3rd/4th.
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