NRL NRL Expansion

[juju]

Uncle Google says there are 396 000 people in CHCH in 2023

Dunedin 134 000 in 2020

South Island 1.2 million

Unless they can get people travelling to each game from Nelson and the West coast I don't see this expansion franchise succeeding.

Christchurch isn't big enough to support in terms of ticket sales in years where they have a bad coach like SK or Brown and are in the bottom 4.
I don't see this working centred in chch and dunners in bad years, yes when they playing well but every team goes in cycles.
Maybe i could see it working if you tapped the whole south island by giving a game every year to Queenstown and invercargill and Nelson

I think the business model is if you have a base of 10 000 ticketed members you're in a good spot.
10k ticketed members should be possible in a city of 400k with a state of the art stadium.

This is not to mention the club grants are only growing.

NRL is a hot product at the moment.

Previously I would of thought this would never work but I think it's aligning pretty favourably now.

 

[wizard of Tauranga]

10k ticketed members should be possible in a city of 400k with a state of the art stadium.

For context, what has been the Warriors average membership over the past decade with a population of 1.5m people?

I can only I magine what the PNG membership numbers will be!

 

[juju]

For context, what has been the Warriors average membership over the past decade with a population of 1.5m people?

I can only I magine what the PNG membership numbers will be!

The last 10 years had a pretty significant interruption.

The Warriors average 8k - 14k members heavily dependant on form.

PNG membership will be largely irrelevant as it would be funded by government money as some sort of soft diplomacy.

Perhaps a better comparison for this expansion is wellington with the phoenix, except the NRL is a stronger product.

 

[FormerlyJamesW]

The Warriors average 8k - 14k members heavily dependant on form.

We do love good bandwagon in this country.

 

[mrblonde]

I always read Warriors breakdown in terms of crowd size is 11K and that a fair proportion of that is walkup crowd ie not ticketed members. Might be a different mix this season...

 

[Kav1]

I think two pools of 12 teams is a viable option with five new teams added to the competition. Amalgamation such as Cronulla and St George, Tigers and Eels would free up players for the new teams.
The Bears and Jets to remain as feeder clubs.
The naming of the National Rugby League would also have to be considered. Quite a change but exciting to think about for the future.

Sorry I got my figures wrong! Two pools of 10 might be the target initially. This could be achieved by adding three new teams to the competition or merging existing Sydney teams (such as the Eels & Tigers, Sharks & Dragons leaving space for five new teams.

 

[Kav1]

3 games Dunners, 6 games Chch and 3 games Welly?

South Half Integtated Team.

Up the SHITahs!

One game on the West Coast (a league stronghold of the past would be a sellout)

 

[Matiunz]

You might be right … but what if you’re not?
What if the new club got the right coach and infrastructure?
The facilities are going to be first class that’s a given.
Chch has the same population as Canberra and Newcastle
It’s whether the potential new club can navigate the bumpiness of the first few seasons and get established quickly. Canterbury crowds - NZ crowds,
can be very fickle so a really strong sense of tribalism will be important as well as a strong roster.

Newcastle has the advantage of being 2hrs from Sydney and just over an hour from central coast which is another 400,000
Canberra although smallish population has the capital city advantages and is around 3 hours from Sydney, both have advantages of having sizeable populations close-something Christchurch does not, particularly if it limits itself to just the South Island

 

[Matiunz]

One game on the West Coast (a league stronghold of the past would be a sellout)

Dunno if selling 4000 tickets would be much of a stretch, or financially viable

 

[Wrighty]

Newcastle has the advantage of being 2hrs from Sydney and just over an hour from central coast which is another 400,000
Canberra although smallish population has the capital city advantages and is around 3 hours from Sydney, both have advantages of having sizeable populations close-something Christchurch does not, particularly if it limits itself to just the South Island

I am doubting the business case for the Southern team unless they change the model of only holding games in CHCH and Dunners.

If we include places like the Kapiti coast/Paraparaumu masterton and the Greater wellington province then Wellington has 530k people but we aren't sticking our hand up for this franchise as we know we can't sell enough tickets over a whole season.

I think the Keas need to take another look at their spreadsheets. When things are going well, sure they can sell out the stadium but not every year is going to be a winning one.

think Perth in particular has a better case. The population of Perth is 1.9 million.
The next cab off the rank has to be Perth. Then I would rank the government funded bid of PNG.
Then I wouldn't have Fiji at all. So I don't know who you would have as the 20th team unless the Keas can revisit their model and come back with a new proposal.

 

[Wrighty]

I know some CHCH fans at work who don't want the Keas and want to remain Warriors fans only.
What do our Christchurch fans on this site say...is there pent up demand for this?

 

[Worried2Death]

I know some CHCH fans at work who don't want the Keas and want to remain Warriors fans only.
What do our Christchurch fans on this site say...is there pent up demand for this?

Only so we get live NRL in town every fortnight, at this stage I have no afinity with the proposed franchises. That Keas jumper's pretty hot though, my head might be turned. If it happens I'll still follow the Wahs as well so the local derby is a win/win. Like everyone says, depends how good they are, expect them to suck for first few seasons.

 

[Tokyo Warrior]

I'm originally from Chch. I can’t imagine giving up the Warriors after all this time. I damn near cried for the post-COVID return match, and that made me realise I'm a lifer. The Kea would be my second team, and I would attend matches when in town and buy merch for sure. And I guess that's all they would need to be viable?

 

[Matiunz]

I am doubting the business case for the Southern team unless they change the model of only holding games in CHCH and Dunners.

If we include places like the Kapiti coast/Paraparaumu masterton and the Greater wellington province then Wellington has 530k people but we aren't sticking our hand up for this franchise as we know we can't sell enough tickets over a whole season.

I think the Keas need to take another look at their spreadsheets. When things are going well, sure they can sell out the stadium but not every year is going to be a winning one.

think Perth in particular has a better case. The population of Perth is 1.9 million.
The next cab off the rank has to be Perth. Then I would rank the government funded bid of PNG.
Then I wouldn't have Fiji at all. So I don't know who you would have as the 20th team unless the Keas can revisit their model and come back with a new proposal.

Perth on the surface looks good but it also has plenty of hurdles,
One is local players, although it has a better scene than Victoria but it’d be a similar story where Storm have to recruit heavy- Perth is a much harder sell than Melbourne.
They already have a number of professional teams including a union and 2 AFL teams which is far and away the most popular sport. If the force went away they’d have a better shot.
The time zone whilst beneficial for a couple of the time slots is completely unsuited to a few others eg the late Fri/Sat games.

I like it in theory but I just can’t see how PNG works- the country is in massive poverty,
The country just is not safe for players to live, they’d be solely reliant on local players that just aren’t up to the standard just yet.
the average fans are unlikely able to afford tickets or merch,
it is unlikely they will get many travelling away supporters.
It is solely dependent on the current Aus government to fund it- what happens with a change of government?

Fiji I feel are sniffing around for the government money but in their favour they’re selling it as a holiday destination for travelling fans and have a better history of local players coming through.

The comp needs to be an even amount of teams and Perth/NZ2 seem the most likely, PNG seems a pipedream but can see a disaster if it’s rushed through, with Fiji as a long shot.

 

[Wrighty]

I'm originally from Chch. I can’t imagine giving up the Warriors after all this time. I damn near cried for the post-COVID return match, and that made me realise I'm a lifer.

A clip for you brother @Tokyo Warrior


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lY2BKmSDwiY

 

[Tokyo Warrior]

A clip for you brother @Tokyo Warrior

Why you gotta do me like that, bro?

 

[hornbybrown]

If I remember correctly when Warriors first came on the scene they were discouraged (banned) from approaching Wgtn or Sth Island for players as these areas were the fishing zones for Aussie NRL - eg Melbourne had first pick of the Wgtn area. Happy to be corrected on this

I thought the Storm didn’t come along till 98? Also definitely had Christchurch based players in first few years. Two off the top of my Head were Whetū Taiwa and Aaron Whitaker

 

[hornbybrown]

Uncle Google says there are 396 000 people in CHCH in 2023

Dunedin 134 000 in 2020

South Island 1.2 million

Unless they can get people travelling to each game from Nelson and the West coast I don't see this expansion franchise succeeding.

Christchurch isn't big enough to support in terms of ticket sales in years where they have a bad coach like SK or Brown and are in the bottom 4.
I don't see this working centred in chch and dunners in bad years, yes when they playing well but every team goes in cycles.
Maybe i could see it working if you tapped the whole south island by giving a game every year to Queenstown and invercargill and Nelson

If you count the Selwyn and Waimakariri districts which are within east driving distance of Christchurch. Most of it being under a hour the population is just shy of 550,000. Far bigger than some current NRL teams home population bases

 

[hornbybrown]

I love the warriors and I always will. I will always support a NZ bases team vs a Aussie based team with passion.

That being said I strongly believe that the Warriors should never call themselves the NZ warriors unless they start truly taking games around the country like the All Blacks do. They should be called the Auckland Warriors as they were originally. This Christchurch born now Dunedin resident soon to be a Stewart Island resident didn’t have my support grow when they changed from Auckland to NZ.

Christchurch absolutely can be the home base for a Southern NZ based NRL team. The key is getting the right person running it. If it’s done well and connects with the communities it represents it will work

 

[KO WAI RA]

Was at the lamana hotel & had the privilege of witnessing Mr Olam watch his son’s storm debut or close to it….
To my horror,one of our expat fukwits asked the bar staff to turn coverage over to a bledisloe cup match…..

Thankfully the bar staff nodded & smiled back only…. (as a result)
So we were able to keep breathing the breath of life…
PNG are fanatical to a religious belief about this sport….
The death toll post origin games would support this statement…
Extremely beautiful people but live in a hard country,in a hard life & are very Hard kunts…..
Phuck knows how they make a propsed team work up there!!
Kisim wata,pasim sua!!!