Post Match Dolphins v Warriors - [Round 23, 2024]

[kos]

He's about as good as say fringe first grade NRL player except plays cricket if that makes sense

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I have been taking the NRL way too seriously as a competition based on the standard of play I witnessed today, mostly from the Warriors fringe players, but also some of the Dolphins.
The NRL is not a high standard at all. Out of 17 guys 12 will be good and 5 weak.

Kosi at time today was diabolical. But no one cares as we have seen it all before and this is the NRL so it is to be expected.
Ali's edge went MIA on a few clean line breaks. No one cares except maybe Webster who benched Sifakula 8 seconds later.
The only real game changing play CNK did all match was attempting to milk a penalty apart from that he was pretty ordinary.
I feel like I have had rose coloured glasses on until now.
The NRL is not a good standard of play as the salary cap only allows you to get 20 good players yet you end up using over 30 by the end of the season.
In the NPC - not super rugby - just NPC you would never ever see goal kicking like what CHT put out there tonight. But that's ok because a) its the NRL b) because reasons. No self respecting NPC team would put a team on the field without a good goal kicker. But league is different. We are ok to put the 17 best players on the field even if none of them is a kicker and make do with some hack like Jordan Rapana. The NRL does not respect the importance of having someone in the team just to kick goals.
I am dialing down my expectations from here on in.

The Nrl added the Dolphins to the comp
Since then there s been quite a few random players coming into first grade at 26/27 from bush sides
There’s prob not enough quality players to support the number of teams so a few roughies make up the numbers
Once the nrl introduce PerthBears more shortage of quality first graders

 

[kos]

Last year our model of play came undone against a younger faster stronger Broncos who shat on us by sprint pacing and we couldn't hang with them.

We have not gotten any faster. Younger perhaps with development players but still not Herbie Farnworth fast

Herbie is an X factor player
Pull him out of that fins side and we win
He stands out

 

[Five&Last]

I don't know what is worse, how bad of a kicker CHT is in clutch moments or the fact that TMM is an even worse kicker.

We really need to find a long term halves partner for Metcalf.

What a shame that we have absolutely zero talent coming through. By the time Jack Thompson is ready Metcalf's already probably over how bad this team is.

 

[Dannevegas]

I don't know what is worse, how bad of a kicker CHT is in clutch moments or the fact that TMM is an even worse kicker.

We really need to find a long term halves partner for Metcalf.

What a shame that we have absolutely zero talent coming through. By the time Jack Thompson is ready Metcalf's already probably over how bad this team is.

If Metcalf turns out to be a decent kicker I like that halves pairing of him and tmm. We just need a creative fullback and stop with the one out hitups in the red zone. If Tauapiki ends up being the fullback next year, I’m sure the 3 of them can share the kicking load and do a good job

 

[Five&Last]

If Metcalf turns out to be a decent kicker I like that halves pairing of him and tmm. We just need a creative fullback and stop with the one out hitups in the red zone. If Tauapiki ends up being the fullback next year, I’m sure the 3 of them can share the kicking load and do a good job

My (not so) hot take is Pasikala will be in the team from round 1 next year (he's in the top 30 next year) due to his goal kicking. Most likely on the wing in place of Montoya. If we had a decent goal kicker we'd be in the 8 imo. I dont think Pompey is a good enough full time goal kicker and CHT definitely is not

From there I think Pasikala takes the number 1 jersey from CNK by mid/late 2026.

We just have to hope Metcalf can handle the bulk of the general play kicking next year and stay injury free.

EDIT: Just noticed Metcalf has been taking the goal kicking duties from Pasikala in NSW cup since he's been back

 

[Inruin]

Bro I had a thought about that today after a commentator comment. I have a feeling we dominate every stat bar line breaks. I just checked, not 1 player in the top 25. Zero X factor

View attachment 8521

I found this really interesting and I like to look further in to things rather than just one snap shot so have had a bit of look through to see how significant this stat may be. As a team total we don't appear to be far away, if we are using line breaks as a guide, they are just spread more evenly across the team versus other teams (still less than other teams though) The majority of the players in the top 25 are wingers with speed and are obviously a target for their respective teams. Which I guess you would define as x factor. There is no doubt you try and play to your strengths. Our wings are not particularly fast or nimble. We also have used a very robotic style of game plan for large parts of the season which haven't involved running it on the last for example while the opposition winger is back. So for me, it seems our issues are two fold. One, having the type of players we can utilize for line breaks more. I think Ali is one of them - size, good hole runner etc. secondly we need a style of play that allows us to create the opportunities more - more varied options in attack like today's game helps. Interesting that TMM and SJ are in the top 25 for line break assists. (Also for try assists)

Today's game was 3 line breaks each. And arguably our defence and poor play were more to blame than any x factor by the Dolphins

Put it this way, I agree we need to look for more speed and agility, particularly on the wings (they also need to be able to defend well) but I don't think this has been a determining factor for our season. Errors, penalties, missed tackles, lack of resilience in defence and lack of smarts in defence has cost us. It hasn't been the lack of points scored costing us games in most instances this year. As an aside, Khan Pereira would be considered an x factor player with 23 line breaks. He also has 24 line break causes and 18 try causes.

After round 23 this season we are averaging 21.6 for and 23.2 against. Same time last season it was 24.2 for and 18.2 against. So 2.6 points less per game scored and 5 points more against on average.

It's not hard to see why we are in the position we are and it could easily be argued that our rigid game plan is what is driving the less points for - games with SJ at 7 are pulling the average down. Before anyone gets their tits in a tangle, that's just a comment on the actual stats not whether SJ or TMM is the better 7 or not.

X factor alone is not going to solve anything significant enough to win us more games. I'd certainly like some more of it, particularly in our outside backs but it's all of the negative stats that are actually costing us. Ironically, and not wanting to pick on Ed but he has very little of the positive and a large amount of the negative so as a net result he isn't even close to what we need in first grade. DWZ last year net positive. This year I'm not so sure...

So, after all that I think as a back line we could have TMM and Metcalf who I think compliment each other, Ali at centre though he needs to work on his defence, possibly RTS on the wing and from there it's marginal. Maybe Taine over CNK? You still need a balance of solid workers to x factor players. Ie Walsh last year for the Broncos with huge x factor and a team that could cover for the rest of his play. This year not so much.

Be interesting to see what signings, if any, come in once the season is done.

 

[run_it_str8_again]

Herbie is an X factor player
Pull him out of that fins side and we win
He stands out

I never knew who he was until the preliminary final last year when he was in a Broncos jersey

 

[run_it_str8_again]

I found this really interesting and I like to look further in to things rather than just one snap shot so have had a bit of look through to see how significant this stat may be. As a team total we don't appear to be far away, if we are using line breaks as a guide, they are just spread more evenly across the team versus other teams. The majority of the players in the top 25 are wingers with speed and are obviously a target for their respective teams. Which I guess you would define as x factor. There is no doubt you try and play to your strengths. Our wings are not particularly fast or nimble. We also have used a very robotic style of game plan for large parts of the season which haven't involved running it on the last for example while the opposition winger is back. So for me, it seems our issues are two fold. One, having the type of players we can utilize for line breaks more. I think Ali is one of them - size, good hole runner etc. secondly we need a style of play that allows us to create the opportunities more - more varied options in attack like today's game helps. Interesting that TMM and SJ are in the top 25 for line break assists. (Also for try assists)

Today's game was 3 line breaks each. And arguably our defence and poor play were more to blame than any x factor by the Dolphins

Put it this way, I agree we need to look for more speed and agility, particularly on the wings (they also need to be able to defend well) but I don't think this has been a determining factor for our season. Errors, penalties, missed tackles, lack of resilience in defence and lack of smarts in defence has cost us. It hasn't been the lack of points scored costing us games in most instances this year. As an aside, Khan Pereira would be considered an x factor player with 23 line breaks. He also has 24 line break causes and 18 try causes.

After round 33 this season we are averaging 21.6 for and 23.2 against. Last season it was 24.2 for and 18.2 against. So 2.6 points less per game scored and 5 points more against in average.

It's not hard to see why we are in the position we are and it could easily be argued that our rigid game plan is what is driving the less points for - games with SJ at 7 are pulling the average down. Before anyone gets there tits in a tangle, that's just a comment on the actual stats not whether SJ or TMM is the better 7 or not.

X factor alone is not going to solve anything significant enough to win us more games. I'd certainly like some more of it, particularly in our outside backs but it's all of the negative stats that are actually costing us. Ironically, and not wanting to pick on Ed but he has very little of the positive and a large amount of the negative so as a net result he isn't even close to what we need in first grade. DWZ last year net positive. This year I'm not so sure...

So, after all that I think as a back line we could have TMM and Metcalf who I think compliment each other, Ali at centre though he needs to work on his defence, possibly RTS on the wing and from there it's marginal. Maybe Taine over CNK? You still need a balance of solid workers to x factor players. Ie Walsh last year for the Broncos with huge x factor and a team that could cover for the rest of his play. This year not so much.

Be interesting to see what signings, if any, come in once the season is done.

I see X factor as an important asset but not the be all and end all of success. I agree that our defence has become porous and lots of our losses appear mental fatigue, laziness or a combination of multiple variables. Working on what we currently have in place for 2025 I think another factor that could help drive towards a premiership or at least top 8 position is rotation of players purposefully to reduce the number of games some players play during the season. But that's another topic.

 

[JustVisiting82]

I don't know what is worse, how bad of a kicker CHT is in clutch moments or the fact that TMM is an even worse kicker.

I can't believe TMM has got this far as an NRL half with such a lack of kicking game... I am not even trying to knock the guy here, I am just honestly surprised. And it's not like he has an amazing running game to offset it.

 

[Inruin]

I see X factor as an important asset but not the be all and end all of success. I agree that our defence has become porous and lots of our losses appear mental fatigue, laziness or a combination of multiple variables. Working on what we currently have in place for 2025 I think another factor that could help drive towards a premiership or at least top 8 position is rotation of players purposefully to reduce the number of games some players play during the season. But that's another topic.

You have talked about this rotation thing before and I agree. I seem to recall AW talking about it preseason and Egan was one of the names mentioned when he talked about finding ways to give certain players a rest from their workload. Yet here we are after round 23 and Lussick warms the bench. I do wonder if AW gets stuck with a narrow focus game to game and needs to pull back and take a wider view to check on whether he is actually doing some of the things that he knows should probably be happening.

 

[Beastmode]

My wife started asking me so can we still make the finals?. During the game!. Then she started asking me why isn't Kayla Johnsons husband taking the kicks? Then she started saying I don't think they'll win hun.

Honest to who. I wanted to scream shut the fuck up!!!!!!(I wouldn't. She'd stab me) I knew we'd lose once she started talking a whole lot of nothing-ness. Jinxed us!!

Sounds like my wife too
Once she starts she can’t STFU!

 

[Inruin]

I can't believe TMM has got this far as an NRL half with such a lack of kicking game... I am not even trying to knock the guy here, I am just honestly surprised. And it's not like he has an amazing running game to offset it.

4:tries from his kicks tonight

Certainly kicking for distance is not a strength, though he does bring other assets to the play. He has also played predominantly 1 or 6 so hasn't needed to do a lot of kicking previously either. Don't forget he missed three years out of the game and is still to clock up 100 NRL games. I think Metcalf and TMM could compliment each other in the halves. The two of them have a lot of developing to do but I think they are our best option currently unless we manage to sign a better half from somewhere in the next 6 months.

 

[CWC]

I caught the last 5 minutes and no surprise we lost without a clutch kicker again, watched the short highlights and it was an exciting game. Ali attacking well and should have won with that Sifakula try energy.

TMM’s red zone kicking is fine he lacks a long punt but if the pack is dominating it’s not a huge problem, depends on if Metcalf has a good punt or Taine could take that role from 6 or 1, both kick goals and we need 1 of them to kick droppies, heck if SOS kicked the winner today from 40 out WTF

They definitely need a veteran assistant, Kearney? Lol, for defense? Stacy has proven he’s meh when the head coach is in a slump

Did we outscore the other team again try wise?

 

[Falcon]

The commentary pointed out prior to the conclusion of the game, of the 26 golden point games we had played, we had only won 8.
Another stat I had read this season. we were top of letting in long range tries.

AW is probably guilty of not evolving last years game style., which this season opposition were fully aware of and knew how to defend and attack it, compounded by injuries to key players.

The next three weeks will test the mental fortitude of the team as they play top eight opposition with no hope of finals football.

 

[Tragic]

View attachment 8516

That says Roger is a worse defender at centre than Aii

 

[MrFrankWhite]

Pretty poor from Capes and Sifa


Barney gets bamboozled



Both Capewell and Sifa smoked

 

[Inruin]

Pretty poor from Capes and Sifa
View attachment 8528

Barney gets bamboozled

View attachment 8529

Both Capewell and Sifa smoked

View attachment 8526

Doesn't really matter which way you look at it, it looks bad. For me, Barney is the initial person at fault, rushing out and getting done creating the gap through a staggered line. Its a bad miss by him IMO compounded by SIfa and Capewell...

The camera angle from behind our defensive line gave a good perspective look too

The annoying thing for me is that we had the momentum and fought back well just to have the break made through our two experienced SoO players side by side not working together. I'm a little hesitant to lump it on a young guy who had had only a couple of games in first grade

 

[Bay39er]

The reason we lost is not anything to do with CHT missing a couple of conversions or field goals.

32 points wins 99% of NRL games so the in-depth analysis should be over how the other team scored 34

And it can’t be overlooked that if the ref hadn’t given the phantom penalty against RTS we win in regular time

 

[BigUCE]

I caught the last 5 minutes and no surprise we lost without a clutch kicker again, watched the short highlights and it was an exciting game. Ali attacking well and should have won with that Sifakula try energy.

TMM’s red zone kicking is fine he lacks a long punt but if the pack is dominating it’s not a huge problem, depends on if Metcalf has a good punt or Taine could take that role from 6 or 1, both kick goals and we need 1 of them to kick droppies, heck if SOS kicked the winner today from 40 out WTF

They definitely need a veteran assistant, Kearney? Lol, for defense? Stacy has proven he’s meh when the head coach is in a slump

Did we outscore the other team again try wise?

Yes we did. Second game we outscored our opponent try-wise, but lost due to poor goalkicking.

 

[Noitall]

The reason we lost is not anything to do with CHT missing a couple of conversions or field goals.

32 points wins 99% of NRL games so the in-depth analysis should be over how the other team scored 34

And it can’t be overlooked that if the ref hadn’t given the phantom penalty against RTS we win in regular time

Also pointless having refs in extra time when they aren’t going to call anything. Heard from multiple places that dolphins were so far offside for the dropped goal attempt. Just like the high and late contact in the bulldogs game