Social NZ Warriors NRL Fantasy Competition 2026

[Tookey 2.0]

Let's unpack this once and for all "He is an elite season long keeper in the worst position".
Why is a 60 point scorer at centre more valuable than a 60 point scorer in the forwards?

Technically there's no difference between the 60 points, who ever you're getting it from.
The difference is from the other player - let's say you have 2 options:

Herbie and a 400k forward vs
Hudson Young and a 400k centre.

Due to the (generally) more consistent scoring by forwards you are far, far more likely to find a 400k forward that can hit 50+ scores vs finding a 400k centre that will do that.

Of course, the challenge is trying to find the right 400k forward, but I generally find a lot of forwards who move clubs do so for a better opportunity - more minutes, better attacking team etc, so they can increase their value substantially, while centres are generally playing the full game usually, so from year to year, even if they change teams there's very few who improve their overall score by 10-15 points.

That's the way I see it anyways

 

[Wrighty]

Because centres notoriously average much lower.

In first year uni you get told to walk the professor up the hill all the way to the well. Draw the water and serve it to him in a cup. Don't just tell him there is a well at the top of the hill.
What is the so what from your statement Damo. Walk me through the implications of what you are saying. Who cares the other centres will all average 35 - what if I take the money I have saved and I buy an expensive forward - doesn't that offset my losses at centre.
Take me up the hill to the well.

 

[Wrighty]

There's an NRL fantasy term "centre roulette" where people can lose a lot of team value and burn a lot of trades trying to get clever with centres. I remember a friend of mine looked back after his first years and i think he had used 17 trades on centres.
Forwards tend to be easier to pick since they are more base heavy, centres rely on attacking stats. They can go on a run and average 50 for a month then just as easily and without explanation drop back to 25 for the next month. So buying a centre is usually more of a gamble than buying other positions. Locking in two gun centres like Herbie and Kiraz would be as close to feeling comfortable with your centres as you can get. There is likely no value there and in fact a drop in price is probably more likely. So traditionally they wouldn't be seen as ideal players for your round one team. However, if you do, it means your likelihood of playing "centre roulette" is massively reduced. It all comes down to your appetite for risk. Because centre options are slim this season, just going straight to guns is a bit more appealing this year.

Also centres tended to score the worst in NRL fantasy. But that seems to have leveled out a fair bit. They seem to be more involved now and quite a few have decent base tackle numbers nowadays. So I think within players who have been playing a bit longer there's still a bit of a hang up on centres.

Thanks greatly. Would you be able to unpack this sentence "It all comes down to your appetite for risk."

 

[Wrighty]

Technically there's no difference between the 60 points, who ever you're getting it from.
The difference is from the other player - let's say you have 2 options:

Herbie and a 400k forward vs
Hudson Young and a 400k centre.

Due to the (generally) more consistent scoring by forwards you are far, far more likely to find a 400k forward that can hit 50+ scores vs finding a 400k centre that will do that.

Of course, the challenge is trying to find the right 400k forward, but I generally find a lot of forwards who move clubs do so for a better opportunity - more minutes, better attacking team etc, so they can increase their value substantially, while centres are generally playing the full game usually, so from year to year, even if they change teams there's very few who improve their overall score by 10-15 points.

That's the way I see it anyways

This is an amazing answer
Herbie and a 400k forward vs
Hudson Young and a 400k centre.

For my choice it is
a) Herbie and Tallis Duncan or Leka
or b) KL Iro and Toby Couchman

If they all average the same as last year it looks like this
a) Herbie 63 points each week plus Duncan 43 points = 106 points each week
b) KL Iro 49 points and Couchman 54 points = 103 points each week
This is pretty close but slight edge to Herbie

Here is an optimistic forecast
a) Herbie improves to 68 average - Duncan actually gets lots of minutes and averages 50 = 118 points
b) KL Iro improves a bit 53 average and Couchman goes at 60 which a lot of people expect to him to = 113 points
This is edge to Herbie

Here is a rainy day forecast

a) Herbie gets less pill this year and drops to 55 average Duncan stays at 43 average as I don't see him going lower = 98 average
b) KL Iro falls down to earth with 45 average and Couchman sticks with 54 points and doesn't improve this year = 99 average
This is basically a draw.

Conclusions
* Based on last years averages better off with Herbie
* If Herbie pops off better off with Herbie
* If everyone levels off then neutral Couchman vs Herbie


Crystal Ball What will Happen? Which scenario will happen?
Maybe it is appetite for risk like Fizurg said - if you want to build for a scenario where Herbie "only" gets 55 points or even less then don't take him
If you want to take a high risk that he pops off and averages 68 then do take him

According to those scenarios Herbie needs to average 63 again for the maths to make it worth taking him at 800K. I don't think it makes sense to take him for $800K on the grounds at least he will score 55 - because if he only scores 55 you can do at least as well with a forward and a secondary centre like Kiraz/ Iro/ Holmes

I agree that taking a 400K centre doesn't make sense. Either 250K centre or high priced centre.

 

[Damo]

In first year uni you get told to walk the professor up the hill all the way to the well. Draw the water and serve it to him in a cup. Don't just tell him there is a well at the top of the hill.
What is the so what from your statement Damo. Walk me through the implications of what you are saying. Who cares the other centres will all average 35 - what if I take the money I have saved and I buy an expensive forward - doesn't that offset my losses at centre.
Take me up the hill to the well.

Can't provide all the answers, some you need to answer for yourself as it's your team not mine.

 

[Makasene]

Is anyone interested in doing a forum Draft League?

Doing my first Draft League this year and it's quite fun and different from the classic Fantasy.

 

[jonesy101]

Is anyone interested in doing a forum Draft League?

Doing my first Draft League this year and it's quite fun and different from the classic Fantasy.

There's someone who set one up on this forum a few days ago. You'll find it in its own thread.

 

[Wrighty]

Can't provide all the answers, some you need to answer for yourself as it's your team not mine.

I am quite taken a back by this answer.

 

[Wrighty]

I have put you on ignore for the medium term Damo. The whole point of this thread is so we can have banter and fantasy theoretical conversations with each other and pass the time on a Wednesday night by chatting about Fantasy what ifs and scenarios. The point is not to win. Maybe it is for you but I doubt anyone else gives a toss about whether they win or whether they give a hand to someone else and help them improve and do better, I don't approve of your attitude as the convener of this thread and I think it should be ok to discuss questions people have and that is what we have done in all the past years we have played this game on this forum and I do not see why that spirit of cooperation should come to an abrupt halt now.

 

[Wrighty]

I am also going to be a cock-a-hoop if I beat your ass when we play each other in head to head. Watch this space.

 

[jonesy101]

@Wrighty I really appreciate you putting me on to Fantasy and like you I'm looking forward to having a bit of fun and banter. But just want to say I think Damo was being helpful. Herbie was way better than the average center which is why his stocks are up. He was getting huge scores for me last year and was one of the few I got right until his injury, so I've gone for him again this season provided he fronts for round 1. Ultimately it is your team and its so much more fun and satisfactory when you back yourself and nail it.

 

[Wrighty]

@Wrighty I really appreciate you putting me on to Fantasy and like you I'm looking forward to having a bit of fun and banter. But just want to say I think Damo was being helpful. Herbie was way better than the average center which is why his stocks are up. He was getting huge scores for me last year and was one of the few I got right until his injury, so I've gone for him again this season provided he fronts for round 1. Ultimately it is your team and its so much more fun and satisfactory when you back yourself and nail it.

OK I will take him off ignore. I will leave my telling off there though as there were nuggets of truth in it.

 

[Ref]

I think you take the guaranteed 45-50 from Farnworth and Kiraz despite the price.
They will get 60 plus at least one third of the time.
Centre used to be a comparitively low scoring position where a grafting 80 minute dual 2nd row centre would get you 35-45 most days but never do any better and make no money either.
Forwards are a real lottery this year and apart from Payne Haas it’s pretty wild.
You’ve got your perennial let downs like D. Fifita, B Smith, R Hunt etc who will suck plenty in.
Avoid the Turbos at all costs.
They are more like Morris Minors.

Mitch Moses is very well priced.

 

[Wrighty]

****BIG NEWS****

Cleary was sent to the sinbin for the 38th minute tackle on boom Wests Tigers winger Heamas Makasini and faces a two-to-three match ban.

NRL Judiciary: More Dragons drama as Leilua faces ban

Dragons forward Luciano Leilua has been charged with a Grade 2 Dangerous Contact offence for his late shot on Roosters halfback Sam Walker and faces a week on the sideline.

www.nrl.com

I might as well get in Herbie now instead of Cleary. I take everyone will trade him out, anyone going to hang tough and keep him in their round one line up?

 

[jonesy101]

There

****BIG NEWS****

Cleary was sent to the sinbin for the 38th minute tackle on boom Wests Tigers winger Heamas Makasini and faces a two-to-three match ban.

NRL Judiciary: More Dragons drama as Leilua faces ban

Dragons forward Luciano Leilua has been charged with a Grade 2 Dangerous Contact offence for his late shot on Roosters halfback Sam Walker and faces a week on the sideline.

www.nrl.com

I might as well get in Herbie now instead of Cleary. I take everyone will trade him out, anyone going to hang tough and keep him in their round one line up?

What a disaster for the Panthers. Herbie got through unscathed last night so I am sticking with him. Moses is looking like the best value half so I've chosen him and Brown with Sanders as a backup cheapie.

 

[Wrighty]

***NEWS FROM THE TRAPS****

Some discussion Terrell May may have minor back niggle.

 

[jonesy101]

Makasini now being tipped to start on the wing for the Tigers. Seems to be a very popular choice in Fantasy and Supercoach, but with them not playing until round 2 it does carry some risk.

 

[Worriers]

Makasini now being tipped to start on the wing for the Tigers. Seems to be a very popular choice in Fantasy and Supercoach, but with them not playing until round 2 it does carry some risk.

Easy choice for me that. Been a standout back for the tigers

 

[Makasene]

Makasini now being tipped to start on the wing for the Tigers. Seems to be a very popular choice in Fantasy and Supercoach, but with them not playing until round 2 it does carry some risk.

He's a perfect pick for round 1 as he can be used as a loop for the other cheapie wings many have.

I'm looping Makasini so I can take a look at Chester & Tu.

 

[ajofbrisbane]

****BIG NEWS****

Cleary was sent to the sinbin for the 38th minute tackle on boom Wests Tigers winger Heamas Makasini and faces a two-to-three match ban.

NRL Judiciary: More Dragons drama as Leilua faces ban

Dragons forward Luciano Leilua has been charged with a Grade 2 Dangerous Contact offence for his late shot on Roosters halfback Sam Walker and faces a week on the sideline.

www.nrl.com

I might as well get in Herbie now instead of Cleary. I take everyone will trade him out, anyone going to hang tough and keep him in their round one line up?

They re going to contest the ban.....wait & see for me.