Predictions Market NRL 2026 Premiership Winner

[tajhay]

This is the discussion thread for the prediction market:

NRL 2026 Premiership Winner

Who is going to be the NRL 2026 Premiership winner. Make your bets now.

Market initially based on odds from sportsbet.

 

[tajhay]

This is a test market. Information to be provided soon.

 

[tajhay]

For Simulation Purpose...

After 8 rounds...
Ladder is:
1. Broncos
2. Storm
3. Roosters
4. Dolphins
5. Raiders
6. Sea Eagles
7. Dragons
8. Eels
9. Rabbitohs
10. Warriors
11. Titans
12. Knights
13. Sharks
...

 

[WahsaurusRex]

 

[WAH MAN]

View attachment 16336

Wait.... So am I spending my real virtual Wah-bucks on a test market?

 

[WAH MAN]

For Simulation Purpose...

After 8 rounds...
Ladder is:
1. Broncos
2. Storm
3. Roosters
4. Dolphins
5. Raiders
6. Sea Eagles
7. Dragons
8. Eels
9. Rabbitohs
10. Warriors
11. Titans
12. Knights
13. Sharks
...

How dare you simulate us at tenth? The outrage and historical accuracy.

 

[tajhay]

Wait.... So am I spending my real virtual Wah-bucks on a test market?

lol i should have clarified. it started off as a test market, but deleted all the test data prior to the season. So its based on users cash* outlay (and emotions).

*fake

 

[WAH MAN]

lol i should have clarified. it started off as a test market, but deleted all the test data prior to the season. So its based on users cash* outlay (and emotions).

*fake

Algud. I'm having a blast learning how it works and making balls ups and the odd gain. Thankfully they are Wah-bucks and not phone bucks, plastic card bucks or paper bucks

 

[wizard of Tauranga]

The data’s corrupted. There’s no way the Eels can be third favourite is there???

 

[FormerlyJamesW]

This is very easy to manipulate haha

 

[tajhay]

The data’s corrupted. There’s no way the Eels can be third favourite is there???

I believe there is a lack of understanding on how markets work. In this example MurrayTD is buying cheap shares on Eels (at 1%). If eels position increases over time, he can sell at a higher profit. Note you are not just buying positions based on the end result, but can also flip them when the value of your positions increase prior to market resolving. This is what people do in the market all the time. People who do well on stock market, take positions, sell high, buy low. They do not buy options based on the final result, unless the probability of it is very much certain.

 

[WAH MAN]

View attachment 16337

I believe there is a lack of understanding on how markets work. In this example MurrayTD is buying cheap shares on Eels (at 1%). If eels position increases over time, he can sell at a higher profit. Note you are not just buying positions based on the end result, but can also flip them when the value of your positions increase prior to market resolving. This is what people do in the market all the time. People who do well on stock market, take positions, sell high, buy low. They do not buy options based on the final result, unless the probability of it is very much certain.

Took me a couple of resolved markets to click on that.

 

[wizard of Tauranga]

So I should buy Titans because they are cheap and find some sucker to sell them to like wolf on Wall Street?

 

[tajhay]

So I should buy Titans because they are cheap and find some sucker to sell them to like wolf on Wall Street?

thats what happens in reality, not just movies.

 

[wizard of Tauranga]

thats what happens in reality, not just movies.

Excellent… before I buy me some titans, do you think we have any suckers on this forum?

Or will I be left with them and be the sucker

 

[WAH MAN]

A question. If any of the options goes up or down, is that in reference to the starting rate or to the most recent rate? Does that question make sense?

 

[tajhay]

Excellent… before I buy me some titans, do you think we have any suckers on this forum?

Or will I be left with them and be the sucker

Lets see it pan out to see which it is

A question. If any of the options goes up or down, is that in reference to the starting rate or to the most recent rate? Does that question make sense?

Thats the rate you are buying at. Behind the scenes there is a liquidity for the entire market.

Say you want to put $500 on Titans and they are at 1%

Your first $100 would be buy you 9000 shares at the 1%. Upon order fulfilment price goes to 2%
The next $100 would buy you 8000 shares at 2%. Upon order fulfilment price goes to 3%
The next $100 would buy you 7000 shares at 3%. Upon order fulfilment price goes to 4%
The next $100 would buy you 8000 shares at 4%. Upon order fulfilment price goes to 5%

I am just giving rough numbers here. When you complete the $500 order, you will notice that the new % is 5. But you bought at rates that brought it to the new value.

Same thing is done when selling but in reverse.

The EST EXIT VALUE shows you how much you would get (whether profit or loss) if you sold the entire lot right now taking all that into account. The current value is how much it is valued at (ON PAPER).



And that folks is how a market actually works. When you see your shares valued at 5,000(82.15 in the above screenshot) for example. If you tried to sell, you would not get 5,000 especially if there is a stampede of people selling at the same time. The liquidity controls it and 5,000 (unless people heavily buying and you are the only one selling) is likely the max you would get for it. On paper it would say 5,000 but in reality if you sold it would be less as the buy and sell depths are taken into account.

Its a worthwhile reminder for newbies or people trying to understand how markets and market forces work, as there are many many many retail investors who do not understand these concepts and wonder what they did wrong because they just take 'tips' from someone else.

On that note, my tip is for titans to win the comp