Politics πŸ—³οΈ NZ Politics

Highlights Only (8)
Bay39er (was Dixpat) said:
Why the WOW emoji to my response @miket12 and @Inruin as it is factually correct
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My uncle had a bad marriage break up in his 40’s, lost everything, gave up on life and bludged off the state for income and housing the rest of his life.

My grandmother went without her whole life, contributed far more than she ever took in taxes. Tried to commit suicide multiple times rather than go into care and lose everything (including her marbles). Then her financial legacy was used up when she needed state help.

My uncle needed to be treated harshly, not my hard working Gran. All I know is I’ve set up a bullet proof family trust.

Thinking any inheritance affected my thinking shows more about you than me πŸ˜‰
 
wizard of Tauranga said:
My uncle had a bad marriage break up in his 40’s, lost everything, gave up on life and bludged off the state for income and housing the rest of his life.

My grandmother went without her whole life, contributed far more than she ever took in taxes. Tried to commit suicide multiple times rather than go into care and lose everything (including her marbles). Then her financial legacy was used up when she needed state help.

My uncle needed to be treated harshly, not my hard working Gran. All I know is I’ve set up a bullet proof family trust.

Thinking any inheritance affected my thinking shows more about you than me πŸ˜‰
Click to expand...
Appreciate the background but it doesn’t actually explain what was unfair in relation to β€œthe others” you referenced
 
Bay39er (was Dixpat) said:
Why the WOW emoji to my response @miket12 and @Inruin as it is factually correct
Click to expand...
The WOW emoji was because I never claimed what I posted was about Wiz’s grandmother but decided it was better to put in the emoji than to engage with you about the circumstances of a relative of another poster. I certainly also wouldn’t post that the reason they were concerned about the RCS was because they werenβ€˜t concerned about their relative but because they’d be getting a reduced inheritance.

TBH, I thought you were above prick moves like that and where you went amazed me and so I gave it a WOW emoji.

@wizard of Tauranga, I’m so very sorry that your grandmother felt so low, she would harm herself.
 
Talking with my sister today who had just returned from Christchurch where she’d stayed with her son and his wife. After 8 years of renting, they’d finally been about to buy their first house.

He complained that the hot water cylinder had leaked and needed to be replaced and it was expensive. His mother said, will, that’s part of the responsibility of being a house owner, you have too pay for all the repairs and maintenance. He said, not if you’re renting, you just call the property manager and he gets it fixed…. It doesn’t cost the tenant or landlord anything. He thought it was the property manager who paid for repairs and maintenance.
 
Inruin said:
The article says this:

She says the council do not believe the vandalism was specifically targeted towards the Māori burial grounds.

β€œWhile most of the damage occurred in the urupa area, there was also damage in the family mausoleum area, and we do not believe the attack was targeted at this area, but appears to be a random act of vandalism,” Nelson said.
Click to expand...
The biggest thing spoken amongst the other whānau was that we all feel like it’s a racist attack,” Duncan says.

Duncan says she had left a Batman mask – the favourite superhero of her late brother – on top of a mask designed with Māori art on Cameron’s grave.

The fact that only the Māori-designed mask had been destroyed while the Batman mask was ignored, she says, is indicative of the vandal’s motives.





There was also this part that gave me the impression of racial motives.
 
miket12 said:
The WOW emoji was because I never claimed what I posted was about Wiz’s grandmother but decided it was better to put in the emoji than to engage with you about the circumstances of a relative of another poster. I certainly also wouldn’t post that the reason they were concerned about the RCS was because they werenβ€˜t concerned about their relative but because they’d be getting a reduced inheritance.

TBH, I thought you were above prick moves like that and where you went amazed me and so I gave it a WOW emoji.

@wizard of Tauranga, I’m so very sorry that your grandmother felt so low, she would harm herself.
Click to expand...
My thoughts also Wiz. Life can be cruel and I have seen it all and not always
in good way.
Lost my mom to dementia and it was a very sad and drawn out process.
Just got over that as well as anyone can when Dad was struck down with the big C.
Another drawn out process.
Also as I am now superannuant I understand and would like to see some sort of respect.
You know what I mean 😏 πŸ˜‰
 
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Your summer BBQ guide to the great NZ housing debate - Kiwibank’s Jarrod Kerr​

What can we expect from the housing market in 2024 and how should we think about the ongoing challenge to help more Kiwis into homes? Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr has offered up his β€œBBQ” guide to property.

β€œEverything that is wrong with the Kiwi property market can be put down to supply, and a lack of it!” says KiwiBank chief economist Jarrod Kerr.

β€œWe’re hopeless at building houses. And we refuse to build the infrastructure required to expand. We fail to maintain the infrastructure we have. But we insist on adding to the existing [creaking] load. The good news is, we learn from our mistakes.”

In this century alone, New Zealand had seen three significant spikes in population growth, he said.

β€œAt the turn of the century, we saw migration boom. The spike in migration led to a spike in demand for properties, both rentals and houses. House prices rose in response. Did we increase our spending on infrastructure [not to mention health, education and other services] to handle the flow of migrants? No. But we learnt from this mistake.”

From 2013 to 2019, New Zealand experienced the greatest migration boom in recorded history, Kerr said.

β€œIn 2018, we estimated the shortage in dwellings blew out to a frightening 100,000. The shortage worsened to 130,000 in 2019. Did we increase our spending on infrastructure (not to mention health, education and other services) to handle the flow of migrants? No. But we learnt from this mistake.”

In 2020, as Covid-19 hit New Zealand locked down and closed the borders.

β€œWe saw a net outflow of migrants. We allowed housing supply the chance to catch up,” Kerr said.

β€œSupply outstripped demand, and our housing shortage improved. This was our best chance to eliminate the housing shortage. We did good, for a while.

β€œBut then the borders reopened. And over the last year we have seen a net 120,000 migrants enter Aotearoa in search of a home.

β€œThat was the largest increase New Zealand had seen in one year.

β€œWill we increase our spending on infrastructure [not to mention health, education and other services] to handle the flow of migrants? Probably not enough. But we will learn from this mistake [insert sarcastic voice].”

Where to next?​

β€œWe think we’re much more likely to see price gains, rather than falls, over 2024,” Kerr said. β€œOur best guess is house prices will rise by 5-to-7 per cent next year. Call it 6 per cent to sound precise.”

The surge would mean migration would play a big role. The latest Stats NZ data for the year to October showed a record net migration gain of 128,900.

The demand/supply imbalance would worsen, Kerr said.

And the new Government would also play a big role with the β€œpromised” reintroduction of interest deductability, shortening the Brightline test timeline, and possible watering down of the CCCFA (Credit Contracts and Consumer Finance Act), enticing investors back into the market.

Interest rates would also be a factor, eventually, he said.

β€œWe think rates will fall in 2024. But buyer beware: The RBNZ is threatening to hike again. So there may be a lift near-term.”

Ultimately, demand would be outstripping supply again, he said.

β€œIt’s overly simplistic, [something that is frowned upon in the economics profession], but for every 120,000 people, we need roughly 50,000 new dwellings [with roughly 2.5 people per house}. And if we follow the downtrend in people per house to say 2.1, a more β€˜desirable’ number, we need more like 60,000.

β€œWe built 46,000 last year, a record effort, but that pace is slowing fast. We expect supply to fall back into the low-to-mid 30,000s. The residential construction boom is cooling quickly. Supply is unlikely to keep up with demand for the foreseeable future. Unless we see some significant policy changes. So that’s a big factor behind our forecast.”

The numbers to watch​

β€œWhen we look at housing, there are a few high frequency indicators we like to help us gauge the strength of the market,” Kerr said. β€œActivity is one, days to sell is another.

β€œβ€˜Days to sell’ sounds obvious. And it is. We saw the average days to sell drop below 30 days, compared to a long-term average over 39, in the height of the 2020/21 house price boom.”

In what was a β€œdramatic turnaround”, the days to sell blew out into 2022, Kerr said. The β€œdays to sell” lengthened to over 50 days.

β€œBuyers had pulled back, and suddenly they realised they had time on their side [for a change]. FOMO became FOOP (fear of overpaying). The gap between the price sellers wanted and the price buyers were willing to pay widened, with not a lot of activity in between. Prices fell.

β€œNow, we’re seeing the days to sell fall back to longer term averages. The housing market is stabilising. Activity is speeding up. And there are more sellers meeting buyers. Sellers have reduced their expectations, and buyers are starting to pay up.”

There were more transactions taking place and sales had bounced strongly, off low levels.

β€œIt’s a positive sign,” he said.

β€œRemember, house sales had fallen a whopping 37 per cent in 2022. So we’re bouncing back, strongly. And where sales go, prices follow.”

Regional outlook​

In Auckland, house sales had bounced 20 per cent, having fallen 40 per cent in 2022, Kerr said.

The average β€œdays to sell” had fallen from over 50 days to around 39 days now. The rebound in activity, and drop in β€œdays to sell”, had seen house prices lift 5 per cent since May. House prices are down 2.5 per over the year, and are off 20 per cent from the November 2021 peak. But the momentum pointed to continued gains from here, he said.

In Wellington, house sales remained soft, after falling 30 per cent in 2022.

β€œActivity is taking a little longer to recover, but there had been a material decline in the β€˜days to sell’,” he said. House prices were down 3 per cent over the year, and were off 21 per cent from the 2021 peak.

In Christchurch, prices had not fallen as far, and the rebound was a little more entrenched. House prices had fallen, but only 8 per cent peak to trough.

β€œβ€˜Days to sell’ is about average, and activity has picked up,” he said. β€œSales continue to record double-digit annual growth, with a 13 per cent rise over the last year.”

In the Bay of Plenty, sales activity had kicked up, Kerr said.

β€œConfidence is returning, with β€˜days to sell’ back below 50. Given the long-run average of about 50, it’s a positive shift. Prices in the Bay are down just 2 per cent over the year, and 15 per cent from the 2021 peak.”

In Northland, house prices declines narrowed to 7 per cent and sales activity was mixed.

β€œWe have yet to see a convincing return,” he said. β€œWatch out over spring and summer.”

Liam Dann is business editor-at-large for the New Zealand Herald. He is a senior writer and columnist, and also presents and produces videos and podcasts. He joined the Herald in 2003.
www.nzherald.co.nz

What to expect from the housing market in 2024

Kiwibank chief economist offers up a primer for the state of the NZ property market.
www.nzherald.co.nz www.nzherald.co.nz
 
Noitall said:
Is this a symptom of the dog whistling politics we heard so much about around the election?
Click to expand...
IF Wainwright was involved, I would think it wouldn’t be about politics but his so called β€œmoral convictions”. Whoever did it, and whatever their motive, I hope they’re caught, charged, convicted and fined.
 
Last edited:
miket12 said:

Your summer BBQ guide to the great NZ housing debate - Kiwibank’s Jarrod Kerr​

What can we expect from the housing market in 2024 and how should we think about the ongoing challenge to help more Kiwis into homes? Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr has offered up his β€œBBQ” guide to property.

β€œEverything that is wrong with the Kiwi property market can be put down to supply, and a lack of it!” says KiwiBank chief economist Jarrod Kerr.

β€œWe’re hopeless at building houses. And we refuse to build the infrastructure required to expand. We fail to maintain the infrastructure we have. But we insist on adding to the existing [creaking] load. The good news is, we learn from our mistakes.”

In this century alone, New Zealand had seen three significant spikes in population growth, he said.

β€œAt the turn of the century, we saw migration boom. The spike in migration led to a spike in demand for properties, both rentals and houses. House prices rose in response. Did we increase our spending on infrastructure [not to mention health, education and other services] to handle the flow of migrants? No. But we learnt from this mistake.”

From 2013 to 2019, New Zealand experienced the greatest migration boom in recorded history, Kerr said.

β€œIn 2018, we estimated the shortage in dwellings blew out to a frightening 100,000. The shortage worsened to 130,000 in 2019. Did we increase our spending on infrastructure (not to mention health, education and other services) to handle the flow of migrants? No. But we learnt from this mistake.”

In 2020, as Covid-19 hit New Zealand locked down and closed the borders.

β€œWe saw a net outflow of migrants. We allowed housing supply the chance to catch up,” Kerr said.

β€œSupply outstripped demand, and our housing shortage improved. This was our best chance to eliminate the housing shortage. We did good, for a while.

β€œBut then the borders reopened. And over the last year we have seen a net 120,000 migrants enter Aotearoa in search of a home.

β€œThat was the largest increase New Zealand had seen in one year.

β€œWill we increase our spending on infrastructure [not to mention health, education and other services] to handle the flow of migrants? Probably not enough. But we will learn from this mistake [insert sarcastic voice].”

Where to next?​

β€œWe think we’re much more likely to see price gains, rather than falls, over 2024,” Kerr said. β€œOur best guess is house prices will rise by 5-to-7 per cent next year. Call it 6 per cent to sound precise.”

The surge would mean migration would play a big role. The latest Stats NZ data for the year to October showed a record net migration gain of 128,900.

The demand/supply imbalance would worsen, Kerr said.

And the new Government would also play a big role with the β€œpromised” reintroduction of interest deductability, shortening the Brightline test timeline, and possible watering down of the CCCFA (Credit Contracts and Consumer Finance Act), enticing investors back into the market.

Interest rates would also be a factor, eventually, he said.

β€œWe think rates will fall in 2024. But buyer beware: The RBNZ is threatening to hike again. So there may be a lift near-term.”

Ultimately, demand would be outstripping supply again, he said.

β€œIt’s overly simplistic, [something that is frowned upon in the economics profession], but for every 120,000 people, we need roughly 50,000 new dwellings [with roughly 2.5 people per house}. And if we follow the downtrend in people per house to say 2.1, a more β€˜desirable’ number, we need more like 60,000.

β€œWe built 46,000 last year, a record effort, but that pace is slowing fast. We expect supply to fall back into the low-to-mid 30,000s. The residential construction boom is cooling quickly. Supply is unlikely to keep up with demand for the foreseeable future. Unless we see some significant policy changes. So that’s a big factor behind our forecast.”

The numbers to watch​

β€œWhen we look at housing, there are a few high frequency indicators we like to help us gauge the strength of the market,” Kerr said. β€œActivity is one, days to sell is another.

β€œβ€˜Days to sell’ sounds obvious. And it is. We saw the average days to sell drop below 30 days, compared to a long-term average over 39, in the height of the 2020/21 house price boom.”

In what was a β€œdramatic turnaround”, the days to sell blew out into 2022, Kerr said. The β€œdays to sell” lengthened to over 50 days.

β€œBuyers had pulled back, and suddenly they realised they had time on their side [for a change]. FOMO became FOOP (fear of overpaying). The gap between the price sellers wanted and the price buyers were willing to pay widened, with not a lot of activity in between. Prices fell.

β€œNow, we’re seeing the days to sell fall back to longer term averages. The housing market is stabilising. Activity is speeding up. And there are more sellers meeting buyers. Sellers have reduced their expectations, and buyers are starting to pay up.”

There were more transactions taking place and sales had bounced strongly, off low levels.

β€œIt’s a positive sign,” he said.

β€œRemember, house sales had fallen a whopping 37 per cent in 2022. So we’re bouncing back, strongly. And where sales go, prices follow.”

Regional outlook​

In Auckland, house sales had bounced 20 per cent, having fallen 40 per cent in 2022, Kerr said.

The average β€œdays to sell” had fallen from over 50 days to around 39 days now. The rebound in activity, and drop in β€œdays to sell”, had seen house prices lift 5 per cent since May. House prices are down 2.5 per over the year, and are off 20 per cent from the November 2021 peak. But the momentum pointed to continued gains from here, he said.

In Wellington, house sales remained soft, after falling 30 per cent in 2022.

β€œActivity is taking a little longer to recover, but there had been a material decline in the β€˜days to sell’,” he said. House prices were down 3 per cent over the year, and were off 21 per cent from the 2021 peak.

In Christchurch, prices had not fallen as far, and the rebound was a little more entrenched. House prices had fallen, but only 8 per cent peak to trough.

β€œβ€˜Days to sell’ is about average, and activity has picked up,” he said. β€œSales continue to record double-digit annual growth, with a 13 per cent rise over the last year.”

In the Bay of Plenty, sales activity had kicked up, Kerr said.

β€œConfidence is returning, with β€˜days to sell’ back below 50. Given the long-run average of about 50, it’s a positive shift. Prices in the Bay are down just 2 per cent over the year, and 15 per cent from the 2021 peak.”

In Northland, house prices declines narrowed to 7 per cent and sales activity was mixed.

β€œWe have yet to see a convincing return,” he said. β€œWatch out over spring and summer.”

Liam Dann is business editor-at-large for the New Zealand Herald. He is a senior writer and columnist, and also presents and produces videos and podcasts. He joined the Herald in 2003.
www.nzherald.co.nz

What to expect from the housing market in 2024

Kiwibank chief economist offers up a primer for the state of the NZ property market.
www.nzherald.co.nz www.nzherald.co.nz
Click to expand...
What's the new govt's plan to address this even bigger looming disaster, new build numbers dropping again apparently
 
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