Politics 🗳️ NZ Politics

[MrFrankWhite]

Sex education is one example. There are some countries that look like their birth rate has gone down, but in reality, the teen pregnancy rate has gone down and couples are having children later in life. This means there is a lag/delay in the birth rate but after 8-10 years it will be normal again.

Thats a pretty big claim and I have seen zero evidence to support this.

 

[tyrael]

Thats a pretty big claim and I have seen zero evidence to support this.

I have receipts.

Teenage births halved over last decade | Stats NZ

The number of teenage women in New Zealand giving birth has more than halved over the last decade.

www.stats.govt.nz

Teen pregnancy rates in New Zealand have decreased significantly over the last decade, with births to teenage mothers (15–19 years) more than halving. As of 2022, there were 1,719 births to teenagers (11 per 1,000) compared to 3,786 in 2012 (25 per 1,000), marking a 55% decline and a long-term downward trend.
Stats NZ
Stats NZ
+2
Key Trends and Data
Rapid Decline: The teen birth rate in 2016 was 16 per 1,000, half of the 2008 rate of 33, representing a consistent decline.
Long-Term Change: Teenage births peaked in 1972 with 9,150 births.

 

[MrFrankWhite]

I have receipts.

Teenage births halved over last decade | Stats NZ

The number of teenage women in New Zealand giving birth has more than halved over the last decade.

www.stats.govt.nz

Teen pregnancy rates in New Zealand have decreased significantly over the last decade, with births to teenage mothers (15–19 years) more than halving. As of 2022, there were 1,719 births to teenagers (11 per 1,000) compared to 3,786 in 2012 (25 per 1,000), marking a 55% decline and a long-term downward trend.
Stats NZ
Stats NZ
+2
Key Trends and Data
Rapid Decline: The teen birth rate in 2016 was 16 per 1,000, half of the 2008 rate of 33, representing a consistent decline.
Long-Term Change: Teenage births peaked in 1972 with 9,150 births.

Sorry I should have clarified, less teen pregnancy I believe, i don’t believe that couples are making up for it later. I was under the impression that fertility rates are down across ALL cohorts.

 

[tyrael]

Sorry I should have clarified, less teen pregnancy I believe, i don’t believe that couples are making up for it later. I was under the impression that fertility rates are down across ALL cohorts.

Yes they are but at the median range it's the most stable and went down the least, which means by scaling comparisons it's gone up.

NZ birth rates have shifted significantly since 1995, characterized by a major decline in teenage/young parent fertility and a rise in the median maternal age, which reached 31.7 years in 2025 compared to 28.6 in 1995. Fertility rates for women under 25 have halved, with only 14% of births to this group in 2025 versus 28% in 1995.
Stats NZ +2
Key Birth Rate Changes by Maternal Age (1995 vs. 2025/Recent):

• Under 25: Births to mothers under 25 reached a record low in 2025 (14% of all births).
• 15–19 Years: Fertility plummeted from 33.39 per 1,000 women in 1995 to 9.09 in 2025.
• 20–24 Years: Rates dropped drastically from 83.01 in 1995 to 42.08 in 2025.
• 25–29 Years: Rates decreased from 123.36 in 1995 to 81.63 in 2025.
• 30–34 Years: This age group has become the peak childbearing age, with rates moving from 106.15 in 1995 to 102.7 in 2025, becoming more stable compared to younger groups.
• 35–39 Years: Rates increased from 43.5 in 1995 to 61.72 in 2025.

 

[MrFrankWhite]

Yes they are but at the median range it's the most stable and went down the least, which means by scaling comparisons it's gone up.

NZ birth rates have shifted significantly since 1995, characterized by a major decline in teenage/young parent fertility and a rise in the median maternal age, which reached 31.7 years in 2025 compared to 28.6 in 1995. Fertility rates for women under 25 have halved, with only 14% of births to this group in 2025 versus 28% in 1995.
View attachment 17048Stats NZ +2
Key Birth Rate Changes by Maternal Age (1995 vs. 2025/Recent):

• Under 25: Births to mothers under 25 reached a record low in 2025 (14% of all births).
• 15–19 Years: Fertility plummeted from 33.39 per 1,000 women in 1995 to 9.09 in 2025.
• 20–24 Years: Rates dropped drastically from 83.01 in 1995 to 42.08 in 2025.
• 25–29 Years: Rates decreased from 123.36 in 1995 to 81.63 in 2025.
• 30–34 Years: This age group has become the peak childbearing age, with rates moving from 106.15 in 1995 to 102.7 in 2025, becoming more stable compared to younger groups.
• 35–39 Years: Rates increased from 43.5 in 1995 to 61.72 in 2025.

View attachment 17049

Thanks. so all but 1 has fallen. That's pretty dire considering 20-29 peak fertility cohort has fallen by drastic amounts, and Im not sure the below makes up for those losses.

• 35–39 Years: Rates increased from 43.5 in 1995 to 61.72 in 2025.

 

[MrFrankWhite]

Yes they are but at the median range it's the most stable and went down the least, which means by scaling comparisons it's gone up.

NZ birth rates have shifted significantly since 1995, characterized by a major decline in teenage/young parent fertility and a rise in the median maternal age, which reached 31.7 years in 2025 compared to 28.6 in 1995. Fertility rates for women under 25 have halved, with only 14% of births to this group in 2025 versus 28% in 1995.
View attachment 17048Stats NZ +2
Key Birth Rate Changes by Maternal Age (1995 vs. 2025/Recent):

• Under 25: Births to mothers under 25 reached a record low in 2025 (14% of all births).
• 15–19 Years: Fertility plummeted from 33.39 per 1,000 women in 1995 to 9.09 in 2025.
• 20–24 Years: Rates dropped drastically from 83.01 in 1995 to 42.08 in 2025.
• 25–29 Years: Rates decreased from 123.36 in 1995 to 81.63 in 2025.
• 30–34 Years: This age group has become the peak childbearing age, with rates moving from 106.15 in 1995 to 102.7 in 2025, becoming more stable compared to younger groups.
• 35–39 Years: Rates increased from 43.5 in 1995 to 61.72 in 2025.

View attachment 17049

Also 15-19 is a strange grouping for them to have...

 

[wizard of Tauranga]

If you could provide me with some websites or at least stats

Ncea level 3 pass rates: 2021 - 65%, 2022 - 67%, 2023 -67.7%, 2024 - 68.2%, 2025 - 70.4% - steady improvement

Attendance Term 1 2023: 59.0%; Term 1 2024: 61.4%; Term 1 2025: 65.9% - Many more kids in school

Chronic absence - 2023 Term 2: 12.5%; 2025 Term 2: 9.3% - less chronic absences​

Introduced repeatable designs for classrooms halving the cost of building a new classroom, and delivering 430 new classrooms since 2024 - more schools for cheaper

Add to that banning open classrooms, cellphones, 1hr per day on reading, writing, maths, etc

 

[Rick O’Shay]

Yes they are but at the median range it's the most stable and went down the least, which means by scaling comparisons it's gone up.

NZ birth rates have shifted significantly since 1995, characterized by a major decline in teenage/young parent fertility and a rise in the median maternal age, which reached 31.7 years in 2025 compared to 28.6 in 1995. Fertility rates for women under 25 have halved, with only 14% of births to this group in 2025 versus 28% in 1995.
View attachment 17048Stats NZ +2
Key Birth Rate Changes by Maternal Age (1995 vs. 2025/Recent):

• Under 25: Births to mothers under 25 reached a record low in 2025 (14% of all births).
• 15–19 Years: Fertility plummeted from 33.39 per 1,000 women in 1995 to 9.09 in 2025.
• 20–24 Years: Rates dropped drastically from 83.01 in 1995 to 42.08 in 2025.
• 25–29 Years: Rates decreased from 123.36 in 1995 to 81.63 in 2025.
• 30–34 Years: This age group has become the peak childbearing age, with rates moving from 106.15 in 1995 to 102.7 in 2025, becoming more stable compared to younger groups.
• 35–39 Years: Rates increased from 43.5 in 1995 to 61.72 in 2025.

View attachment 17049

Good stats. Are there any that show how many children those canvassed already have in an earlier iteration.

 

[tyrael]

Also 15-19 is a strange grouping for them to have...

It's called teenage pregnancy. I mean, they could have done 13-19 but unlikely to change the numbers much (I hope)

 

[tyrael]

Ncea level 3 pass rates: 2021 - 65%, 2022 - 67%, 2023 -67.7%, 2024 - 68.2%, 2025 - 70.4% - steady improvement

Attendance Term 1 2023: 59.0%; Term 1 2024: 61.4%; Term 1 2025: 65.9% - Many more kids in school

Chronic absence - 2023 Term 2: 12.5%; 2025 Term 2: 9.3% - less chronic absences​

Introduced repeatable designs for classrooms halving the cost of building a new classroom, and delivering 430 new classrooms since 2024 - more schools for cheaper

Add to that banning open classrooms, cellphones, 1hr per day on reading, writing, maths, etc

So NCEA level 3 going up happened under both governments. But this government said it's not good enough and cancelled NCEA. The biggest thing is what's the NCEA level 3 pass rate for low decile schools and the kicker, how many actually try to do NCEA lvl3 compared to how many began in yr9.

The 1hr reading writing math is a red herring because what were primary schools doing if they weren't doing that previously? All schools I know were doing that.

They also didn't ban open classrooms, this government said they won't build any more. Open classroom still exists, go visit westmere, Freeman's Bay, western springs etc.

Making classrooms cheaper to build could mean worse classrooms. Look at school lunches....

 

[tyrael]

Good stats. Are there any that show how many children those canvassed already have in an earlier iteration.

Like multiple births?