I've never seen National as truly conservative, more centre right and the opposite with Labour.It's a problem if your electorate is conservative and the proposed leader isn't seen to be.
Luxon only got the job due to the influence of Key and despite his thinking is not a true conservative. The other three are deemed liberals within the party, on the left side of right if that makes sense.
The other issue is that caucus doesn't appear to be settled on rolling Luxon and are hoping he will walk. Don't think he's the type to do that so this could be very messy and whoever puts their hand up is going to be tainted. National voters have long memories and the Bridges, Muller, Collins debacle is still fresh.
National has lost it's identity as a conservative party with Act and Winston Inc taking over that role. IMO, the major parties will continue to bleed voters to the minors as they lose the identity they once had. That idealism and point of difference is now being built by the minors and I expect the minors leaders to increase their share of preferred PM.
Admittedly we probably have a stark difference in age between us so you likely have a longer perspective.
