Politics đź—łď¸Ź NZ Politics

Highlights Only
wizard of Tauranga said:
To little, to late, but glad they are finally doing the counter-cyclical measures that are needed.

2026 is going to be a good year as people will be spending and have confidence with all the extra money save in interest and the rural money flowing through the economy.
Click to expand...
I was thinking this morning, it is never a "perfect" time to buy a first home. There's always a balance of things going on - interest rates, house prices, employment etc. There's always a reason to not buy a house

Looking back (AKLD only, and purely from a price perspective), these periods were of interest
1. 2009: post GFC + interest rates came down. 6% unemployment. Good buying
2. 2011-2016: sustainaned low interest rates & economic stimulation. Unemployment declining. Good buying
3. 2019 & 2020: clearly a bubble. Perfect storm of undersupply, delayed response, very low unemployment and stupidly low interest rates. Good buying at the start but bad at the end
4. 2025 onwards (TBC, and refer to my comments below)

1759955735832.webp

However, if I was a FHB right now, this is as good as it gets:
  • Low interest rates
  • Oversupply of completed new builds
  • Due to the above oversupply, the developer capacity tap has turned down, so again we will have a delayed supply response
  • Unemployment will peak (e.g. 2009), and we will have a period similar to 2011-2016 again. Will probably be slower, but the ingredients are there
  • Immigration is subdued (leading to weak housing demand), but that will return as the economy improves
The low interest rates will support increased competition for housing. It always happens.

So yeah, the reason not to buy right now would be job uncertainty. But as per above, there's always a reason not to . However I think that there are enough reasons for FHBs to be a bit bold as this period will be another one of those times that we look back and go - "oh yeah, I wish I had bought in 2025/2026"
 

NZWarriors.com

Remove ads
wizard of Tauranga said:
To little, to late, but glad they are finally doing the counter-cyclical measures that are needed.

2026 is going to be a good year as people will be spending and have confidence with all the extra money save in interest and the rural money flowing through the economy.
Click to expand...
www.nzherald.co.nz

'Not surprising', Luxon says as National dives into 20s in latest poll

The latest results show the centre-left could govern.
www.nzherald.co.nz www.nzherald.co.nz

They are completely reliant of what you’re saying occurring next year with consecutive polls now having them trailing. What was different last time was Luxon was still preferred pm, which has now changed with his percentage dropping. Very volatile currently around the world and trumps tariffs have created more uncertainty for governments of the world to work their way through, and they’re our second largest trading partner currently. Very close election ahead
 
MaybeTop8 said:
newsroom.co.nz

Secret defence notes pointing to sensitive China preparation left at op shop

The National-led government has been avoiding questions about whether it is joining in preparations for a US military confrontation with China. A series of Official Information Act requests on this subject have had large sections redacted. The public does not know what New Zealand military staff...
newsroom.co.nz newsroom.co.nz
Click to expand...
Think it’s clear where our allegiance lies. This is a real concern and seems that bullying and coercion hasn’t worked and like always tends to be the case that military action is now in play with this country. America is delusional to think that those countries at China’s military parade collectively are beatable
 
Noitall said:
www.nzherald.co.nz

'Not surprising', Luxon says as National dives into 20s in latest poll

The latest results show the centre-left could govern.
www.nzherald.co.nz www.nzherald.co.nz

They are completely reliant of what you’re saying occurring next year with consecutive polls now having them trailing. What was different last time was Luxon was still preferred pm, which has now changed with his percentage dropping. Very volatile currently around the world and trumps tariffs have created more uncertainty for governments of the world to work their way through, and they’re our second largest trading partner currently. Very close election ahead
Click to expand...
1 - elections are all about the economy. All ways has been, always will be. If the economy bounces back strongly next year - National win.

2 - once sitting govts fall behind in the polls they are toast. People don’t switch back as the sitting govt only ever slowly upsets more and more people. Unless there’s a significant change - Luxons going… National are toast.

Two competing theories. Really National needs the economy to boom and a new leader
 
defensivebomb said:
I was thinking this morning, it is never a "perfect" time to buy a first home. There's always a balance of things going on - interest rates, house prices, employment etc. There's always a reason to not buy a house

Looking back (AKLD only, and purely from a price perspective), these periods were of interest
1. 2009: post GFC + interest rates came down. 6% unemployment. Good buying
2. 2011-2016: sustainaned low interest rates & economic stimulation. Unemployment declining. Good buying
3. 2019 & 2020: clearly a bubble. Perfect storm of undersupply, delayed response, very low unemployment and stupidly low interest rates. Good buying at the start but bad at the end
4. 2025 onwards (TBC, and refer to my comments below)

View attachment 14661

However, if I was a FHB right now, this is as good as it gets:
  • Low interest rates
  • Oversupply of completed new builds
  • Due to the above oversupply, the developer capacity tap has turned down, so again we will have a delayed supply response
  • Unemployment will peak (e.g. 2009), and we will have a period similar to 2011-2016 again. Will probably be slower, but the ingredients are there
  • Immigration is subdued (leading to weak housing demand), but that will return as the economy improves
The low interest rates will support increased competition for housing. It always happens.

So yeah, the reason not to buy right now would be job uncertainty. But as per above, there's always a reason not to . However I think that there are enough reasons for FHBs to be a bit bold as this period will be another one of those times that we look back and go - "oh yeah, I wish I had bought in 2025/2026"
Click to expand...
The longer the housing market has been suppressed, the stronger the bounce back. And this has been a long period historically of moving sideways.

Once confidence comes back, it will be a rush as pent up FOMO kicks in.

Based on your graph, I think house pricing was overvalued in 2021 and is undervalued now

1DE8C719-7656-4F88-B238-EF2E04A6654F.webp
 
MaybeTop8 said:
Great journalism again.

Click to expand...
Putting aside the political issues raised, that cohort of young people have had a shit time. Shut out of school during Covid, missing out on rites of passage, getting soft pass marks for Covid interruptions, made to do unpopular token compulsory papers and then landing in a soft economy with no jobs

Luxon is right though, but clumsily says it. As a young person, or a job seeker, you really have to be led by demand. You can’t just sit and wait for things to improve. Young people have their lives ahead of them to learn their craft and the only way they are going to be able to do that is to actively seek out work, and move if that is required. The early gold rushers didn’t just sit and wait at home for the gold to appear in their backyards. They went forth and chased opportunities. That same attitude needs to be instilled in anyone that hopes to succeed. The important thing is experience, which will be career currency later in life
 
defensivebomb said:
Putting aside the political issues raised, that cohort of young people have had a shit time. Shut out of school during Covid, missing out on rites of passage, getting soft pass marks for Covid interruptions, made to do unpopular token compulsory papers and then landing in a soft economy with no jobs

Luxon is right though, but clumsily says it. As a young person, or a job seeker, you really have to be led by demand. You can’t just sit and wait for things to improve. Young people have their lives ahead of them to learn their craft and the only way they are going to be able to do that is to actively seek out work, and move if that is required. The early gold rushers didn’t just sit and wait at home for the gold to appear in their backyards. They went forth and chased opportunities. That same attitude needs to be instilled in anyone that hopes to succeed. The important thing is experience, which will be career currency later in life
Click to expand...
Lot of them are going forth and chasing opportunities in Australia if they can save enough to get there. We seem to be talking about a cohort of 4,000 18-20 yr olds who can't or won't get work or study, half of them with disabilities. Some kind of national job program for these kids would be a good investment imo, leaving them to the mercy of the market isn't helping them.
 
Worried2Death said:
Lot of them are going forth and chasing opportunities in Australia if they can save enough to get there. We seem to be talking about a cohort of 4,000 18-20 yr olds who can't or won't get work or study, half of them with disabilities. Some kind of national job program for these kids would be a good investment imo, leaving them to the mercy of the market isn't helping them.
Click to expand...
Yeah I’d 💯 head to Aussie if I was a young man. Lots of opportunity. Make some money, live life, get some experience and have a good time. Lots of which aren’t really on the table here unfortunately right now. Even when the going is good, NZ is a bit boring for young people.

We just have to be attractive enough to get them back once they’ve had fun and lived a bit of life. And I think that’s a bit of a problem right now
 
What’s the difference between Trump inciting capital hill and Chloe inciting the crowbar attack on Peters hill?

Both called for action then both condemned the violence after…

Chloe Trump! Horseshoe politics where both fringes become extreme.
 
Last edited:
defensivebomb said:
Yeah I’d 💯 head to Aussie if I was a young man. Lots of opportunity. Make some money, live life, get some experience and have a good time. Lots of which aren’t really on the table here unfortunately right now. Even when the going is good, NZ is a bit boring for young people.

We just have to be attractive enough to get them back once they’ve had fun and lived a bit of life. And I think that’s a bit of a problem right now
Click to expand...
NZ has always been a great place to have a holiday home.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Shogun
Politics 🇺🇸 Joe Biden
Replies
3
Views
3K
Shogun
Shogun
Politics 🤡 Donald Trump
308 309 310
Replies
6K
Views
348K
Noitall
Bruce
Current Affairs 🗳️ Is this the twilight of democracy?
7 8 9
Replies
160
Views
30K
Worried2Death
Worried2Death
Buzz Killington
Current Affairs Fake News Stories in the NZ Herald!
Replies
3
Views
3K
wizard of Tauranga
wizard of Tauranga
Back
Top Bottom