It quite easy to say “tax cuts will cost this much” when you never put a time limit after it….. that’s why Cameron and Hickey can say their figures with $4.7 billion difference…. because one is considering the cost over say three years while the other is using four years. Why? Because it makes it look a lot worse than saying less than $4 billion per year.
It’s the same when it’s mentioned that the changes to the landlords interest deductibility will cost $3 billion. But it’s only just over $700 million PA…. the $3 billion is spread over four years. And even then, as interest rates drop, the four years will extend out because the amount landlord claim will drop as interest rates drop down.
For example, a landlord with a $500,000 mortgage at 7.0% pays $35,000 in interest each year so claims back $11,550 PA of their tax if they’re taxed at 33% But, if the interest rate drops to 4.0% on that $500,000, they can only claim back $6,600 PA. Suddenly, it takes 8 years for the governments tax take to drop down that $3,000,000,000….. it still goes down by that amount but the time period increases…. it just doesn’t help it when it goes against the narrative the person is trying to portray.