Politics 🗳️ NZ Politics

[wizard of Tauranga]

Reserve Bank drops OCR by 50 basis points. Here's from the email from the RBNZ...

OCR reduced to 2.5%​

8 October 2025

Annual consumers price index inflation is currently around the top of the Monetary Policy Committee’s 1 to 3 percent target band. However, with spare capacity in the economy, inflation is expected to return to around the 2 percent target mid-point over the first half of 2026.

Economic activity through the middle of 2025 was weak. In part, this reflects domestic constraints on the supply of goods and services in some industries, and the impact of global economic policy uncertainty. Household consumption is recovering, partly because of lower interest rates, and elevated commodity prices continue to support the primary sector. House prices are flat, and residential and business investment remain weak.

Economic growth in New Zealand’s trading partners is proving resilient, partly because of strong investment in AI-related activity, but is expected to slow in 2026.

There are upside and downside risks to the inflation outlook in New Zealand. Cautious behaviour by households and businesses could slow the economic recovery, reducing medium-term inflation pressure. Alternatively, higher near-term inflation could prove to be more persistent.

On balance, the Committee reached consensus to reduce the OCR by 50 basis points to 2.5 percent. The Committee remains open to further reductions in the OCR as required for inflation to settle sustainably near the 2 percent target mid-point in the medium term.

Read the full statement and Record of Meeting

Media contact:
Brendan Manning
Manager External Stakeholders
MOB: 021 923 217
Email: [email protected]

To little, to late, but glad they are finally doing the counter-cyclical measures that are needed.

2026 is going to be a good year as people will be spending and have confidence with all the extra money save in interest and the rural money flowing through the economy.

 

[defensivebomb]

To little, to late, but glad they are finally doing the counter-cyclical measures that are needed.

2026 is going to be a good year as people will be spending and have confidence with all the extra money save in interest and the rural money flowing through the economy.

I was thinking this morning, it is never a "perfect" time to buy a first home. There's always a balance of things going on - interest rates, house prices, employment etc. There's always a reason to not buy a house

Looking back (AKLD only, and purely from a price perspective), these periods were of interest
1. 2009: post GFC + interest rates came down. 6% unemployment. Good buying
2. 2011-2016: sustainaned low interest rates & economic stimulation. Unemployment declining. Good buying
3. 2019 & 2020: clearly a bubble. Perfect storm of undersupply, delayed response, very low unemployment and stupidly low interest rates. Good buying at the start but bad at the end
4. 2025 onwards (TBC, and refer to my comments below)



However, if I was a FHB right now, this is as good as it gets:

• Low interest rates
• Oversupply of completed new builds
• Due to the above oversupply, the developer capacity tap has turned down, so again we will have a delayed supply response
• Unemployment will peak (e.g. 2009), and we will have a period similar to 2011-2016 again. Will probably be slower, but the ingredients are there
• Immigration is subdued (leading to weak housing demand), but that will return as the economy improves

The low interest rates will support increased competition for housing. It always happens.

So yeah, the reason not to buy right now would be job uncertainty. But as per above, there's always a reason not to . However I think that there are enough reasons for FHBs to be a bit bold as this period will be another one of those times that we look back and go - "oh yeah, I wish I had bought in 2025/2026"

 

[Noitall]

To little, to late, but glad they are finally doing the counter-cyclical measures that are needed.

2026 is going to be a good year as people will be spending and have confidence with all the extra money save in interest and the rural money flowing through the economy.

'Not surprising', Luxon says as National dives into 20s in latest poll

The latest results show the centre-left could govern.

www.nzherald.co.nz

They are completely reliant of what you’re saying occurring next year with consecutive polls now having them trailing. What was different last time was Luxon was still preferred pm, which has now changed with his percentage dropping. Very volatile currently around the world and trumps tariffs have created more uncertainty for governments of the world to work their way through, and they’re our second largest trading partner currently. Very close election ahead

 

[MaybeTop8]

Secret defence notes pointing to sensitive China preparation left at op shop

The National-led government has been avoiding questions about whether it is joining in preparations for a US military confrontation with China. A series of Official Information Act requests on this subject have had large sections redacted. The public does not know what New Zealand military staff...

newsroom.co.nz

 

[Noitall]

Secret defence notes pointing to sensitive China preparation left at op shop

The National-led government has been avoiding questions about whether it is joining in preparations for a US military confrontation with China. A series of Official Information Act requests on this subject have had large sections redacted. The public does not know what New Zealand military staff...

newsroom.co.nz

Think it’s clear where our allegiance lies. This is a real concern and seems that bullying and coercion hasn’t worked and like always tends to be the case that military action is now in play with this country. America is delusional to think that those countries at China’s military parade collectively are beatable

 

[wizard of Tauranga]

'Not surprising', Luxon says as National dives into 20s in latest poll

The latest results show the centre-left could govern.

www.nzherald.co.nz

They are completely reliant of what you’re saying occurring next year with consecutive polls now having them trailing. What was different last time was Luxon was still preferred pm, which has now changed with his percentage dropping. Very volatile currently around the world and trumps tariffs have created more uncertainty for governments of the world to work their way through, and they’re our second largest trading partner currently. Very close election ahead

1 - elections are all about the economy. All ways has been, always will be. If the economy bounces back strongly next year - National win.

2 - once sitting govts fall behind in the polls they are toast. People don’t switch back as the sitting govt only ever slowly upsets more and more people. Unless there’s a significant change - Luxons going… National are toast.

Two competing theories. Really National needs the economy to boom and a new leader

 

[wizard of Tauranga]

I was thinking this morning, it is never a "perfect" time to buy a first home. There's always a balance of things going on - interest rates, house prices, employment etc. There's always a reason to not buy a house

Looking back (AKLD only, and purely from a price perspective), these periods were of interest
1. 2009: post GFC + interest rates came down. 6% unemployment. Good buying
2. 2011-2016: sustainaned low interest rates & economic stimulation. Unemployment declining. Good buying
3. 2019 & 2020: clearly a bubble. Perfect storm of undersupply, delayed response, very low unemployment and stupidly low interest rates. Good buying at the start but bad at the end
4. 2025 onwards (TBC, and refer to my comments below)

View attachment 14661

However, if I was a FHB right now, this is as good as it gets:

• Low interest rates
• Oversupply of completed new builds
• Due to the above oversupply, the developer capacity tap has turned down, so again we will have a delayed supply response
• Unemployment will peak (e.g. 2009), and we will have a period similar to 2011-2016 again. Will probably be slower, but the ingredients are there
• Immigration is subdued (leading to weak housing demand), but that will return as the economy improves

The low interest rates will support increased competition for housing. It always happens.

So yeah, the reason not to buy right now would be job uncertainty. But as per above, there's always a reason not to . However I think that there are enough reasons for FHBs to be a bit bold as this period will be another one of those times that we look back and go - "oh yeah, I wish I had bought in 2025/2026"

The longer the housing market has been suppressed, the stronger the bounce back. And this has been a long period historically of moving sideways.

Once confidence comes back, it will be a rush as pent up FOMO kicks in.

Based on your graph, I think house pricing was overvalued in 2021 and is undervalued now

 

[MaybeTop8]

Great journalism again.

https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL2510/S00014/on-luxon-advising-young-people-to-get-out-while-they-still-can.htm

 

[defensivebomb]

Great journalism again.

https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL2510/S00014/on-luxon-advising-young-people-to-get-out-while-they-still-can.htm

Putting aside the political issues raised, that cohort of young people have had a shit time. Shut out of school during Covid, missing out on rites of passage, getting soft pass marks for Covid interruptions, made to do unpopular token compulsory papers and then landing in a soft economy with no jobs

Luxon is right though, but clumsily says it. As a young person, or a job seeker, you really have to be led by demand. You can’t just sit and wait for things to improve. Young people have their lives ahead of them to learn their craft and the only way they are going to be able to do that is to actively seek out work, and move if that is required. The early gold rushers didn’t just sit and wait at home for the gold to appear in their backyards. They went forth and chased opportunities. That same attitude needs to be instilled in anyone that hopes to succeed. The important thing is experience, which will be career currency later in life

 

[Worried2Death]

Putting aside the political issues raised, that cohort of young people have had a shit time. Shut out of school during Covid, missing out on rites of passage, getting soft pass marks for Covid interruptions, made to do unpopular token compulsory papers and then landing in a soft economy with no jobs

Luxon is right though, but clumsily says it. As a young person, or a job seeker, you really have to be led by demand. You can’t just sit and wait for things to improve. Young people have their lives ahead of them to learn their craft and the only way they are going to be able to do that is to actively seek out work, and move if that is required. The early gold rushers didn’t just sit and wait at home for the gold to appear in their backyards. They went forth and chased opportunities. That same attitude needs to be instilled in anyone that hopes to succeed. The important thing is experience, which will be career currency later in life

Lot of them are going forth and chasing opportunities in Australia if they can save enough to get there. We seem to be talking about a cohort of 4,000 18-20 yr olds who can't or won't get work or study, half of them with disabilities. Some kind of national job program for these kids would be a good investment imo, leaving them to the mercy of the market isn't helping them.

 

[defensivebomb]

Lot of them are going forth and chasing opportunities in Australia if they can save enough to get there. We seem to be talking about a cohort of 4,000 18-20 yr olds who can't or won't get work or study, half of them with disabilities. Some kind of national job program for these kids would be a good investment imo, leaving them to the mercy of the market isn't helping them.

Yeah I’d head to Aussie if I was a young man. Lots of opportunity. Make some money, live life, get some experience and have a good time. Lots of which aren’t really on the table here unfortunately right now. Even when the going is good, NZ is a bit boring for young people.

We just have to be attractive enough to get them back once they’ve had fun and lived a bit of life. And I think that’s a bit of a problem right now

 

[Worried2Death]

Secret defence notes pointing to sensitive China preparation left at op shop

The National-led government has been avoiding questions about whether it is joining in preparations for a US military confrontation with China. A series of Official Information Act requests on this subject have had large sections redacted. The public does not know what New Zealand military staff...

newsroom.co.nz

What should we conclude from this, WW3 is scheduled for 2027?

 

[MrFrankWhite]

Putting aside the political issues raised, that cohort of young people have had a shit time. Shut out of school during Covid, missing out on rites of passage, getting soft pass marks for Covid interruptions, made to do unpopular token compulsory papers and then landing in a soft economy with no jobs

Pick another "'20s" it was better to be in your early teens...

 

[wizard of Tauranga]

What should we conclude from this, WW3 is scheduled for 2027?

Didn’t know conspiracy theories made the mains stream media…

 

[MrFrankWhite]

Didn’t know conspiracy theories made the mains stream media…

A joint military action involving 5 eyes nations and their militaries? Completely inconceivable /s

 

[Worried2Death]

Didn’t know conspiracy theories made the mains stream media…

You don't believe it's a legit story?

 

[wizard of Tauranga]

What’s the difference between Trump inciting capital hill and Chloe inciting the crowbar attack on Peters hill?

Both called for action then both condemned the violence after…

Chloe Trump! Horseshoe politics where both fringes become extreme.

 

[wizard of Tauranga]

You don't believe it's a legit story?

Most countries would plan behind the scenes for all sorts of scenarios. Doesn’t mean it will happen.

A few unofficial notes shouldn’t mean we’re guaranteed a future superpower confrontation.

 

[Worried2Death]

Most countries would plan behind the scenes for all sorts of scenarios. Doesn’t mean it will happen.

A few unofficial notes shouldn’t mean we’re guaranteed a future superpower confrontation.

That's a relief, I was getting worried there. I seem to remeber this happened last offseason too.

 

[Rick O’Shay]

Yeah I’d head to Aussie if I was a young man. Lots of opportunity. Make some money, live life, get some experience and have a good time. Lots of which aren’t really on the table here unfortunately right now. Even when the going is good, NZ is a bit boring for young people.

We just have to be attractive enough to get them back once they’ve had fun and lived a bit of life. And I think that’s a bit of a problem right now

NZ has always been a great place to have a holiday home.