Politics 🗳️ NZ Politics

[Mr. Brownstone]

What metrics are giving you this idea?

And what policy the government have or are implementing do you see making

Cleary, with the last budget update things have got bleaker much quicker and it's not looking rosy for the next while.

Or is this view just gut feelings and riding out cycles.

Because I kinda see this current government talking a big game like Eric Watson and Owen Glenn did...
with very similar outcomes.

Despite all the rhetoric and blaming labour - we've gone backwards very very quickly.

I speak to people at the coal face, it’s really tough out there however the negative growth trends are beginning to slowly flatten out. Yes it continues to get worse, and we have conflicting forces at play with declining interest rates & increasing unemployment, however there is an expectation that we bottom early next calendar year & then hopefully start to see some very modest organic growth from Q2 of CY25. Obviously no one knows for certain how it all plays out, however there is hope out there & the media are only interested in being alarmist.

 

[Inruin]

a few are unwilling to acknowledge it's got worse that the negative mindset policy , austerity policy & pro landlord and pro tobacco, anti māori government has made NZ worse.

The most you've managed to come up with is apologist, borderline fan fiction supporting them...

We had a government who think they're the best economic managers have a utterly driven the country backwards.

Can you point to any key metric that improved under the last government? Despite huge increases in government spending? A propped up economy because of that was on the downward slide and gaining momentum fast. There is no fan fiction there. It's the reality of the situation we were in, like it or not.

 

[juju]

I speak to people at the coal face, it’s really tough out there however the negative growth trends are beginning to slowly flatten out. Yes it continues to get worse, and we have conflicting forces at play with declining interest rates & increasing unemployment, however there is an expectation that we bottom early next calendar year & then hopefully start to see some very modest organic growth from Q2 of CY25. Obviously no one knows for certain how it all plays out, however there is hope out there & the media are only interested in being alarmist.

What policy is coming up to fuel more organic growth?

The budget update this past week paints fairly certain to me more contraction, & more civil servant lay offs, all the while sanctioning beneficiaries. Pretty dire scenario.

 

[Mr. Brownstone]

What policy is coming up to fuel more organic growth?

The budget update this past week paints fairly certain to me more contraction, & more civil servant lay offs, all the while sanctioning beneficiaries. Pretty dire scenario.

Monetary policy. And re the civil servants, they were unproductive in their roles, an outcome of a government that overspent & lost the plot entirely. In time those that have lost their jobs will have their skills utilised elsewhere.

 

[kos]

Monetary policy. And re the civil servants, they were unproductive in their roles, an outcome of a government that overspent & lost the plot entirely. In time those that have lost their jobs will have their skills utilised elsewhere.

Australia now feeling effects of China slowdown. Less demand and lower price for Australias quarry material ie ore etc.

Nz -how much export as a percentage of exports goes to China?

The China factor.

 

[Mr. Brownstone]

Australia now feeling effects of China slowdown. Less demand and lower price for Australias quarry material ie ore etc.

Nz -how much export as a percentage of exports goes to China?

The China factor.

From memory it’s 20-something percent however it’s not highly cyclical stuff like iron ore

 

[MrFrankWhite]

What policy is coming up to fuel more organic growth?

The budget update this past week paints fairly certain to me more contraction, & more civil servant lay offs, all the while sanctioning beneficiaries. Pretty dire scenario.

Agree with you re National not doing much of fuck all, but the govt should never be adult day care for people who cant survive in the real world. Bureaucracy creep is a very real thing and you see it in all govt adjacent industries.

 

[kos]

From memory it’s 20-something percent however it’s not highly cyclical stuff like iron ore

Milk powder ok?
Logs at threat of downturn?

 

[wizard of Tauranga]

Worst recession since 1991. How has the governor of the reserve bank kept his job?

'Worst since 1991': NZ in deep recession after massive GDP fall

GDP data for the third quarter shows a wipeout.

www.nzherald.co.nz

 

[Mr. Brownstone]

Milk powder ok?
Logs at threat of downturn?

Yeah logs is the most cyclical one I can think of, already been dipping for a few months, think Port of Tauranga expecting around 1m lower tonnes exported in 2025 financial year. But what isn’t exported today will still be exported in the future, the harvest profile demands it.

 

[juju]

Agree with you re National not doing much of fuck all, but the govt should never be adult day care for people who cant survive in the real world. Bureaucracy creep is a very real thing and you see it in all govt adjacent industries.

They're not doing fuck all, they're doing a fair bit - just bad.
Today we learnt Its been the biggest economic contraction in the country since 1991 excluding covid

This is despite the rhetoric when they came into power.

They have materially made the standard and cost of living worse for the average citizen.

 

[kos]

Yeah logs is the most cyclical one I can think of, already been dipping for a few months, think Port of Tauranga expecting around 1m lower tonnes exported in 2025 financial year. But what isn’t exported today will still be exported in the future, the harvest profile demands it.

Surely depends on demand from export markets now that a lot of North Island mills have shut down
Such a shit industry logging

 

[Mr. Brownstone]

Surely depends on demand from export markets now that a lot of North Island mills have shut down
Such a shit industry logging

Already largely dependent on exports, not that much is consumed domestically - also I think it’s around 65% of total log exports go to China.

 

[MrFrankWhite]

@juju Im at lot less judgemental on beneficiaries than you might think, while also thinking its counter productive. Its very small amounts in the scheme of things. I view a lot of public servant jobs as stealth welfare and it costs countries a lot more.

 

[Mr. Brownstone]

They have materially made the standard and cost of living worse for the average citizen.

The previous incumbents had already locked that outcome in.

 

[wizard of Tauranga]

Agree with you re National not doing much of fuck all

It’s a rebuild job. Some National actions that will help over the next few years:

- The high tax take has reduced investment, productivity and R&D the last 5 years. Being address.
- high costs (wages, compliance) draining profitability, competitiveness and resilience of businesses. Being addressed
- there were a raft of policies effectively reducing output of productive industries (dairy, forestry, resources, etc). Being addressed
- housing choked by RMA, compliance. Being addressed
- skilled labour to grow PRODUCTIVE businesses being pooled in govt departments. Being addressed
- school system was failing with less than 50% attendance and youth unsuitable for work - being addressed.
- govt borrowing huge to unsustainably paper over the cracks and building a foundation on sand. Spending being bought under control.

Feel sorry for the govt inheriting this mess which has been exposed by the deepest recession in 30 years delivered by Labour policies.

 

[defensivebomb]

Worst recession since 1991. How has the governor of the reserve bank kept his job?

'Worst since 1991': NZ in deep recession after massive GDP fall

GDP data for the third quarter shows a wipeout.

www.nzherald.co.nz

He’s busy being a tree

 

[juju]

The previous incumbents had already locked that outcome in.

I really dont think so.

Prescription charges, car regos, public transport etc etc.

 

[Mr. Brownstone]

I really dont think so.

Prescription charges, car regos, public transport etc etc.

You’re suffering from confirmation bias. You’re incapable of being objective & it’s pointless discussing anything with you any further.

 

[juju]

@juju Im at lot less judgemental on beneficiaries than you might think, while also thinking its counter productive. Its very small amounts in the scheme of things. I view a lot of public servant jobs as stealth welfare and it costs countries a lot more.

I'm mainly commenting on it's a cruel fuckwit government that drives policy laying people off,
Set's economic policy so bad it makes the economy retract and forces unemployed so high

and on the other hands sanction beneficiary harder.