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    1. At the start of the year we built a game based on extending and enhancing what we did last year. We thought we had a shot at a prem doing that.
    1. The wheels were falling off that plan towards the end of last season. Looks to me like we were relying on that gameplan to carry on and there was very little variation to it.
    2. Last years model relied on SJ, Tohu, AFB etc. The replacements we have for these players are not like for like.
    2. No they aren't like for like. You have peak SJ last season with 15 seasons of experience and it took a good chunk of the season for him to kick in to that with largely a settled lineup when he did. Tohu, obviously injured this season. The replacements have had a limited number of games together to show what they can do. Expecting them to a) play like SJ and Tohu and b) show anywhere near that level after a handful of games with a huge amount of chopping and changing in the team line ups during that period is not a fair expectation
    3. SJ and Tohu have been injured and struggling all year. Unfortunately it’s been chronic injuries and hard to tell whether and when they’ll come good. Maybe reduced training load will do it? Nope. Two weeks off? Reduced minutes?
    3. 4+ weeks of 'recovery' and they are straight back to where they were. if we are being honest its unlikely that Tohu is going to be any better than he is now. SJ, who knows, but also given his inconsistent season on season performances will he return to 2023 form or revert to 2022 and before?
    4. If you give up on SJ and Tohu you are changing the game model mid season, and wasting two preseasons. This should be a last resort, and it was. unfortunately we have probably now hit that point.
    4. I think we hit that point after the Dragons game. I also think changing for the Storm game was a mistake and said it at the time. Also, from my point of view, see point 1.
    5. TMM and CHT have been great but they are being overestimated by some here. They are not close to 2023 SJ and have done well off the back of middle dominance and an unpredictable change in our game model. That won’t last into the playoffs against better and better prepared teams.
    5. Over estimated, probably. But hard to argue against the results WITH inexperienced teams and players thrown together for the Panthers and Dolphins games, and looked very slick when we probably had close to our best team in an away dominant win to the Cowboys. Good to see you are talking about whether that gameplan will hold up in the playoffs, without the current TMM/CHT/Walker combo that was a write off previously. The fact we are in a position to have a chance at finals football is a huge improvement on where we were looking like finishing previously. While people are over estimating the new combo, I think plenty are underestimating and/or not giving them enough credit for what they have produced, like its been a bit lucky or something. We have dominated the stats for a vast majority of games this season and not delivered the result so I am finding it a little hard to rationalise an argument around this current combo relying on middle dominance and a changed gameplan. Also, the gameplan was previously basically developed around SJ and Tohu, expecting different players to fill in and copy that would be a mistake. It looks to me like the current plan is geared around the strengths of the new combo and isn't as unpredictable as some think. There is a structure behind it but has more variation to our play than we have seen this year, for whatever reasons, and is a bit more eyes up focused than robotic going through the motions.
    6. The crop of young forwards are great, but it’s one thing to have a couple of good stints off the bench and another to do a job week in week out. If we had them playing big minutes from round 8 I’d bet some on here would be writing them off and asking us to recruit over them.
    6. I completely agree with this point. I also think AW has missed an opportunity to play a number of these guys in a rotation to give them experience of the bench in first grade and then a week or two back in cup for full games. It is a lot easier to get up and compete hard for one off games than be in week on week consistently good performances. It also takes a bit of adjustment for young bodies as well. How many of our young players have been injured for periods this season and that's largely at a lower level of competition. As an aside, Ali is being talked up a lot as a first grade center and obviously has a lot of potential, but he's had two games and finished injured and out for weeks after both of those. That may just be bad luck but still shows he has a lot of developing and proving before we can consider him a lock in over more resilient players.
    7. AFB has obviously had off field issues. That adds a layer to the above.
    7. Yes, but we are better with him on the field IMO and only have to put up with him for less than half a season. It would be very interesting to see how much or little these actual issues are and the potential impact they have had.

    Supplementary questions and comments:

    8. What happened to AW's next man up philosophy? A heavy reliance on busted players in SJ and Tohu particularly in the 4 or so games leading in to the Panthers game and then a weird decision to play Walker at 12 in the Titans game. Just feels like he perhaps has either over estimated or over relied on players based on last season form rather than this seasons, and hasn't followed through with his next man up talk. There was also talk at the beginning of the season about limiting the gametime of Tohu and Egan in particular, and yes, injuries have had an impact there, but the opposite of this occurred. There were still options available IMO to allow this to happen but AW chose not to for what ever reason. And then there has been some of the bench selections and use that has been head scratching material

    9. Who is in charge of what areas of our game now from a coaching stand point? Do we still have the same set up as last season this year? It appears there is a drop off in our defensive resilience - that could be down to other factors like busted players, attitudes etc and why is our play so robotic previously and who is making that call to be like that?

    10. A lot of shade being given to AFB, warranted or not. How much impact has RTS had not playing to expectations at center over other players, seemingly being untouchable in the team, had? What impact has the seemingly narrow focus on our play, players from last season being able to deliver to that same level, AW seemingly not sticking to his next man up philosphy etc had on the team?

    11. The more I think about it the more I cant help but think that the club in general has thought we would just roll on as we did last year. They will obviously say we didn't think that and that's fine, and maybe it hasn't been a conscious thing. I just think back to things like sacking the ground announcer for the cringe guy from Christchurch, changing the walk in music to a cliched Welcame to the Jungle as examples. Minor perhaps, shouldn't have an impact on the team. But it feels like we had an identity that was embraced last season. It doesn't feel that way this season. From those minor changes to our robotic style of play to a really evident lack of excitement or team spirit at times this season (yes I get the AFB piece but that doesn't stop the rest of them being excited for the player and team when we score)
     
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    My take:

    1. At the start of the year we built a game based on extending and enhancing what we did last year. We thought we had a shot at a prem doing that.
    2. Last years model relied on SJ, Tohu, AFB etc. The replacements we have for these players are not like for like.
    3. SJ and Tohu have been injured and struggling all year. Unfortunately it’s been chronic injuries and hard to tell whether and when they’ll come good. Maybe reduced training load will do it? Nope. Two weeks off? Reduced minutes?
    4. If you give up on SJ and Tohu you are changing the game model mid season, and wasting two preseasons. This should be a last resort, and it was. unfortunately we have probably now hit that point.
    5. TMM and CHT have been great but they are being overestimated by some here. They are not close to 2023 SJ and have done well off the back of middle dominance and an unpredictable change in our game model. That won’t last into the playoffs against better and better prepared teams.
    6. The crop of young forwards are great, but it’s one thing to have a couple of good stints off the bench and another to do a job week in week out. If we had them playing big minutes from round 8 I’d bet some on here would be writing them off and asking us to recruit over them.
    7. AFB has obviously had off field issues. That adds a layer to the above.

    In short, I think that’s why we are where we are. Sure we could have given up on SJ and Tohu two months ago, but that decision would have been made on medical input we here don’t have, and I don’t think it will change where we end up on the table this year.
     
    Fonzie does an incredible job explaining why Webby has persisted with Tohu/SJ this season even when they've been a bit beat up, in the latest TWL podcast. Even if you're not a podcast listener I'd 100% recommend having a listen.

    Short version is, we don't make the top 4 last year without Tohu/SJ (and AFB) playing the way they did. We won't make a deep run this year without them either, so he's been persisting in the hope we can get it right. TMM/Walker are good but not near the level of Tohu/SJ last year, and never will be. Unfortunately it didn't workout as he would have hoped and we're likely in a worse spot for it.

    The way Fonzie explains it is so much better though.
     
    Why are we so keen on other clubs caste off than promote from within?
    I agree, we have a bumper group of rookies in the NSW Cup team that are ready.
    It's up to the coach but there were a few to side players looking over their shoulder and preseason 2025 will be very interesting!

    Demetric Sifakula is going to be force in the NRL and will establish himself in short time, more so than Zyon Maiu'u who I imagine will benefit the most from playing under JFH. Next Moses Leota.
    Leka Halasima is an impressive unit, the best version of Ukuma Ta'ai. Laban reminds me so much of Stephen Kearney, one of the Kiwis greatest.
    From the backs Ali Leiataua makes it look easy and only after 2-3 games in the top side!

    There will be others but these kids are standing out now..
     
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    He keeps making statements about what he will do like he made up his mind about every scenario in January. It's like he has no capacity to assess and make a decision based on what's happening in front of him now and everything is preplanned.
    Gee I feel some of us are jumping hard and early on Webby - too soon FFS.

    Exceeds all expectations last year, is dealing with the second year syndrome this year and for us - that’s a change to becomng the hunted.

    He’s figuring out what’s working, not just now but potentially longer term, he’s open about making changes (TMM to lead ball player, RTS to Wing, Ford to prop etc) and we have time.

    We may look like 13th this week but beat the Dogs (and we will), wash through the Bye and move into a far more forgiving run home and into the 8, as 5th or 6th.

    Then it’s a new comp.

    Chillax boys, we’re good.

    Now save this fkn post - I’m sure it’ll age beautifully…
     
    TMM I think is very comfortable in NZ with his boat and getaway hunting lifestyle.
    NQ could compete in those terms but family over here is a big draw card I imagine.
    We would be fucking stupid to let him leave imo.
    Him and CHT could be a gun halves combo for the next 3 to 5 years. Two genuine kick pass and run options.
     
    Was interested listening to Webster yesterday saying that when SJ returns, there’s a place in the team for him, TMM and CHT. All they can do now in my eyes is TMM as dominant half and SJ five eighth to be what’s different from what they’ve already tried so far?
    Yeah I wasnt happy when I sore that. It means CHT getting 10mins off the bench - huge waste of talent!!

    It doesn’t matter what number SJ has on his back. He will run 90% of the plays. In the titans and storm games TMM was meant to be dominant but SJ couldn’t do it.

    I’m worried we will be in the cusp of finals, SJ will come back and we’ll lose our last few games. Hope I’m wrong!!
     
    Is a positional change on the cards for RTS? I think it’s a certainty.


    RTS is definitely an upgrade for Monty with his acceleration, step, tidying up and most importantly ability to turn which is costing us tries

    Plus RTS out of the way gives our young centres the chance to play, Ali, Berry, MTG
     
    For the record, adding remaining bye points to all teams, we are effectively 10th right now on 21 points (same as Manly), 1 point behind 6th-8th (Dogs/Dolphins/Dragons), 3 points behind 5th (Cowboys), so very much still in the race for the eight.



    ladder w/byescurrent ladderteamcurrent totalbyesrem byestotal with byes
    1​
    1​
    Storm
    28​
    2​
    1​
    30​
    2​
    2​
    Panthers
    24​
    2​
    1​
    26​
    3​
    3​
    Sharks
    24​
    2​
    1​
    26​
    4​
    4​
    Roosters
    22​
    1​
    2​
    26​
    5​
    7​
    Cowboys
    20​
    1​
    2​
    24​
    6​
    5​
    Bulldogs
    20​
    2​
    1​
    22​
    7​
    6​
    Dolphins
    20​
    2​
    1​
    22​
    8​
    8​
    Dragons
    20​
    2​
    1​
    22​
    9​
    9​
    Eagles
    19​
    2​
    1​
    21​
    10​
    13​
    Warriors
    17​
    1​
    2​
    21​
    11​
    10​
    Broncos
    18​
    2​
    1​
    20​
    12​
    11​
    Knights
    18​
    2​
    1​
    20​
    13​
    12​
    Raiders
    18​
    2​
    1​
    20​
    14​
    14​
    Rabbitohs
    16​
    3​
    0​
    16​
    15​
    15​
    Titans
    14​
    3​
    0​
    14​
    16​
    16​
    Eels
    12​
    2​
    1​
    14​
    17​
    17​
    Tigers
    12​
    2​
    1​
    14​
     
    Been away for a little bit but heard some AFB thoughts on my travels.

    A good mate who is great mates with Ivan Cleary (next door neighbours when he coached here and their kids went same schools etc) caught up with him when Ivan came over to support the Mt Albert Lions fundraiser. Was a bye week for the Panthers and the Warriors had just been dicked by the Tits. My mate asked him what his thoughts were on what was happening at the club and Ivan said the only reason teams lose like that is because of a toxic environment which he said was most likely caused by the rift that AFB is creating by being held here despite desperately wanting to leave. His thoughts were that it would have been much better for the club to have released him and bought up the next player in line while searching the market for a replacement.

    Another mate who has an ear very close to the top of the club told me the exact thing a couple days later independently. The club are well aware of how AFB is starting to poison the well in the changing rooms but are basically stuck with him till the seasons end.

    Kind of reminds me of Feleti Mateo in 2012 or Manu Vatuvei in 2016.

    Left unchecked it is sure to cause damage that remains long after the cancer has been cut out. I'd honestly fuck him off now and bite the bullet about paying his salary to play for someone else...

    This fits with what I've heard and seen too, hence I alluded to it in a post a few weeks back. Ivan would have been careful with what he revealed too. You'd think - given his relationship with the club and the coach - that he'd know the full story.

    Anyone who disputes the crippling impact of having a miserable or problematic player in the ranks of a professional sporting team, especially an Alpha leader, is just wrong. It's why so many successful teams across a variety of sports have no dickhead policies when it comes to recruitment. The margin of error at the elite level is so small that it can only take the slightest distraction to cause a mass capitulation. It would be particularly testing for the Warriors who have to travel together every couple of weeks. An unhappy player rooming with teammates and hanging socially before the game could easily bring the energy level of the whole group down. And that's all it takes. It's no coincidence that the rout against the Titans happened on the road.

    Webby has made a few mistakes this season, not the least of which is his dogged determination to always select his best available team on paper - irrespective of form or injury. You get the feeling that his management of the AFB situation will ultimately be seen as another one.
     
    Been away for a little bit but heard some AFB thoughts on my travels.

    A good mate who is great mates with Ivan Cleary (next door neighbours when he coached here and their kids went same schools etc) caught up with him when Ivan came over to support the Mt Albert Lions fundraiser. Was a bye week for the Panthers and the Warriors had just been dicked by the Tits. My mate asked him what his thoughts were on what was happening at the club and Ivan said the only reason teams lose like that is because of a toxic environment which he said was most likely caused by the rift that AFB is creating by being held here despite desperately wanting to leave. His thoughts were that it would have been much better for the club to have released him and bought up the next player in line while searching the market for a replacement.

    Another mate who has an ear very close to the top of the club told me the exact thing a couple days later independently. The club are well aware of how AFB is starting to poison the well in the changing rooms but are basically stuck with him till the seasons end.

    Kind of reminds me of Feleti Mateo in 2012 or Manu Vatuvei in 2016.

    Left unchecked it is sure to cause damage that remains long after the cancer has been cut out. I'd honestly fuck him off now and bite the bullet about paying his salary to play for someone else...
     
    Havent seen a lot of him this season but Saifiti looks to be going fairly average. Gotta say though a lot of people here thought Barnett would be a bust too, but a new environment only revitalised his career. He's only 28, played close to 200 nrl games and 7 origins. Reckon for the right price, he'd be a good signing to pair up with JFH.
     
    i dont get the Walker move.
    He was recruited as a utility, on the tail end of his career, now all of a sudden he's a starting #13...?
    Blood in one of the NSW Cup guys to take that spot and leave Walker at 14 is my view.

    He has far better ball playing and speed than any of our other forwards, while being solid on D.

    Harris has regressed this year unfortunately, Sifkula looks to be a prop now, Laban and Leka are edges, Ale or Tevaga no way should start instead of Walker, Going is probably the closest but doesn't have the speed or ball playing of Walker. If Harris is moving to prop Walker is easily our best option?
     
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