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The Enforcer - do they help win NRL games? Is an enforcer what the warriors need?

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With the Warriors Soft bellied reaction to the Roosters manhandling and giving Shaun our star play maker a chicken wing leading him to be out for 2 matches plenty of discussion that we need an enforcer.

This analysis looks at the impact of having Enforcers in the team vs standings in the ladder.

Please read these Caveats first

This is an entertainment oriented analysis and not designed for an academic journal. The results are preliminary and based on only ten games this season. Any analysis should be taken tentatively until repeatability is established by variations of the study being repeated over multiple years with different parameters and assumptions.

Methodology

Firstly my credentials for this analysis is that I have been a numerical analyst for large companies. So I will try to present these findings with some appropriate cautions.

I had to define what an enforcer was. In the National Hockey League they use penalty minutes so I went with something similar here for this NRL analysis.

Table 1.0 Shows a list of players with greater than 5 penalties who are forwards (excluding hookers) who have been assessed more than 0.6 penalties per 80 minutes of game time.

Without surprise JWH is near the top of this list. There are faults with using this system in that some players who are just ill disciplined like Jackson Ford make the list but for the most part I was comfortable with this method as it was objective rather than me just naming enforcers by memory or impressions of watching them. I only used Forwards as backs aren’t ever enforcers in my history of watching. There were a lot of hookers on the list that I deleted. They must all be agitators but I don’t think they are big enough to be enforcers. There were some notable missing names of this list such as Haumole Olakau'atu bur overall I was happy with it and it was more comprehensive than using sin bin data which was my other option.

Here is Table 1.0 for you to peruse. Results from the 2024 season first 10 games



NameTeam
G
MIN
PEN
SB
Penatiles/80mins
10J. Aloiai​
MAN)​
9​
379​
7​
1​
1.477573​
29S. Hughes​
CBY)​
9​
275​
5​
1​
1.454545​
2J. Hopgood​
PAR)​
9​
553​
9​
0​
1.301989​
29J. Waerea-Hargreaves​
SYD)​
8​
315​
5​
0​
1.269841​
29A. Seyfarth​
WST)​
9​
323​
5​
1​
1.23839​
18F. Molo​
STI)​
9​
394​
6​
1​
1.218274​
29B. Cartwright​
PAR)​
5​
360​
5​
0​
1.111111​
10C. McInnes​
CRO)​
9​
524​
7​
0​
1.068702​
10T. Loiero​
MEL)​
9​
525​
7​
0​
1.066667​
29G. Neame​
NQL)​
10​
384​
5​
0​
1.041667​
10J. Bateman​
WST)​
8​
559​
7​
0​
1.001789​
18A. Crichton​
SYD)​
8​
529​
6​
0​
0.907372​
7V. Kikau​
CBY)​
9​
706​
8​
0​
0.906516​
10R. Cotter​
NQL)​
10​
641​
7​
0​
0.873635​
7J. Ford​
WAR)​
10​
773​
8​
0​
0.827943​
29J. King​
MEL)​
9​
508​
5​
0​
0.787402​
29S. Blore​
MEL)​
7​
516​
5​
0​
0.775194​
29C. Murray​
SOU)​
8​
529​
5​
0​
0.756144​
29B. Nikora​
CRO)​
7​
543​
5​
1​
0.736648​
18D. Lucas​
NEW)​
9​
652​
6​
0​
0.736196​
18T. Wilton​
CRO)​
9​
710​
6​
0​
0.676056​
29V. Radley​
SYD)​
8​
598​
5​
1​
0.668896​
29J. Salmon​
CBY)​
9​
605​
5​
0​
0.661157​
29M. Barnett​
WAR)​
10​
621​
5​
0​
0.644122​
18P. Carrigan​
BRI)​
10​
750​
6​
0​
0.64​
18J. Nanai​
NQL)​
10​
769​
6​
0​
0.624187​
29N. Butcher​
SYD)​
9​
645​
5​
0​
0.620155​
29I. Papali'i​
WST)​
9​
666​
5​
0​
0.600601​




FINDINGS & ANALYSIS

Please review table 2.0 below



NRL STANDINGSEnforcers > 1.2 Penalties/80 minsEnforcers >1.0 Penalties per 80 minsEnforcers>0.6 Penalties per 80 minutes
1​
Sharks
1​
3​
2​
Panthers
3​
Storm
1​
3​
4​
Dolphins
5​
Roosters
1​
1​
4​
6​
Broncos
1​
7​
Raiders
8​
Sea Eagles
1​
1​
1​
9​
Bulldogs
1​
1​
3​
10​
Knights
1​
11​
Dragons
1​
1​
1​
12​
Cowboys
1​
4​
13​
Eels
1​
2​
2​
14​
Warriors
2​
15​
Wests
1​
2​
3​
16​
Titans
17​
Rabbitohs
1​
Count Top 8 teams​
24
5​
Count Bottom 9 teams​
45
8​


The following are hypotheses that the data suggests that need further testing to be valid, but as discussed earlier I will present them as tentative findings for entertainment purposes.

Please note small sample sizes

  • The top 8 teams did not have more enforcers than the bottom 9 teams. In fact where the threshold was >1.2 and >0.6 the top 8 teams had less enforcers.
  • Of the top 8 teams the three teams with the most enforcers >0.6 threshold were the Storm, Roosters, and Sharks while the Panthers, Dolphins and Raiders appear to follow a different strategy and not have any enforcers (using the definition of enforcers I used for this study).
  • The four teams who did not use any enforcers under all scenarios were, The Panthers ranked 2nd, The Dolphins ranked 4th, The Raiders ranked 7th, the Titans ranked 16th. The coaches of those teams are all arguably elite coaches: Ivan Cleary, Wayne Bennett, Ricky Stuart, Des Hasler.
  • Where the threshold was set at greater than 1.2 penalties per 80 minutes only JWH Roosters and Josh Aloiai Manly showed up as enforcers for the top 8 teams. Other teams like the Storm and Sharks instead used a team approach to enforcement. Rather than having one player with a large amount of penalty minutes they had several players with a lower but still significant amount of penalty minutes. Team toughness and team enforcement rather than one guy riding shot gun.
  • The Warriors had two players who made the grade as enforcers under the lightest threshold at 0.6 penalties per 80 minutes but none of our players exceeded 1.0 or 1,2 penalties per 80 minutes. The Warriors seemed to be neither really using enforcement or making a point of not using it like the four mentioned teams earlier in Point 3 above.
What does this all mean?

Well it presents data that is pretty sketchy given small sample sizes and lack of repeatability at this stage. But it seems to fly in the face of quotes that Jazz has made about how important an enforcer is to stop the team getting pillaged in the ruck. Instead the top 8 teams are no more likely to have enforcers than bottom 9 teams and in some threshold scenarios the top 8 teams appeared less likely to have enforcers.

I think it all means, if it is all true, which it may not be, due the vast number of noted limitations with this study, that getting tougher and getting an enforcer into the side isn’t going to help the Warriors. In fact, improving discipline and getting discipline might be more helpful.

Or given three of the top 8 teams took a team toughness approach with slightly lower penalties per minutes but multiple guys appearing on the list for that team, if the Warriors do want to be a tough team then team toughness seems to be more popular rather than putting into the hands of one enforcer.

Thoughts??? Comments??? Go easy on the study as there are admittedly plenty of problems with it !!!
 
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I would like to tell my story now I am six years medically retired after head injury.

But the only reason I would tell it is a bunch of folk here are familiar here with my voice so will not think I am telling porkies and I know it would interest them to have deep look inside maxi units for the criminally insane.

But this is not the forum for it and the best stories I have are top secret at Govt level no joke.
No worries. I am probably not about to tell my crazy life either on the open internet.
 
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Everyone has a story eh bro, and many on here would pop our eyeballs out of our skulls with a day in the life...I remember you revealing you have and are heading big stuff.
1) Been married twice and going through my second divorce
2) Lived in two countries and have dual citizenship
3) Attended 4 universities in different cities
4) Changed my name legally (long story but for a good reason)
5) Played Soccer, rugby briefly, table tennis, and cricket for 30 years

Sorry for digression !!!! Let's get back to enforcers !!!!
 
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1) Been married twice and going through my second divorce
2) Lived in two countries and have dual citizenship
3) Attended 4 universities in different cities
4) Changed my name legally (long story but for a good reason)
5) Played Soccer, rugby briefly, table tennis, and cricket for 30 years
The rest is all to personal but have been to hell and back and feel have actually been in hell while I have been alive.
My ex wife told the marriage guidance counsellor that I have no goals. Well maybe just surviving and doing so with human grace and dignity preserved is my goal given how hard life has been and I know will continue to be.
Sorry for digression !!!! Let's get back to enforcers !!!!
Hey bro. I feel your pain.
Been through a lot more marriages/relationships break ups than you would imagine.
Keep at it and you will find the one.
She's out there somewhere.
Good luck.
Yes back to the enforcement thread
 
Hey bro. I feel your pain.
Been through a lot more marriages/relationships break ups than you would imagine.
Keep at it and you will find the one.
She's out there somewhere.
Good luck.
I nearly you mentioned you in my rant that your story is a source of hope to me.
 
Think ‘enforcers’ in the traditional sense are a bit of a relic of the past now. Do what was traditionally the role of an enforcer and you wouldn’t stay in the field long in today’s game.
In 2002 we had our most intimidating pack and whilst it helped us get to the gf as sup42 mentioned it also went against us when it counted.
What you basically want these days is someone who runs hard enough that it’s not fun tackling them and tackles hard enough that you don’t want to run at them.
With the game as professional as it is now most players are able to take both
 
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Think ‘enforcers’ in the traditional sense are a bit of a relic of the past now. Do what was traditionally the role of an enforcer and you wouldn’t stay in the field long in today’s game.
In 2002 we had our most intimidating pack and whilst it helped us get to the gf as sup42 mentioned it also went against us when it counted.
What you basically want these days is someone who runs hard enough that it’s not fun tackling them and tackles hard enough that you don’t want to run at them.
With the game as professional as it is now most players are able to take both
Good post. Someone better break it to JWH his days are outlived as he was still near the top of my stats table in the analysis.
 
I think you should enforce as a pack then no one gets into trouble. We should have just sworn a lot and thrown some hand bags at their guys and created an all in push and shove. Usually that is enough. It bothered the fuck of out of me that we did nothing. And I woke up at 2am in the morning irate that we let them push us around like that.
That is why Kane Evans was great. In that season he played our season was over by round 12 (sound familiar) so when teams took runs at us he drew a line in the sand and by memory sat some guys on their asses with his powerful left jab (some poetic license taken here).
It's irrational and against my better nature but I confess I wanted one of our guys to commit GBH and permanent damage to Keary for that, Kevin Tamati style, even if it cost him a 10 week ban. So maybe my nature isn't as good as I like to think.
 
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It's irrational and against my better nature but I confess I wanted one of our guys to commit GBH and permanent damage to Keary for that, Kevin Tamati style, even if it cost him a 10 week ban. So maybe my nature isn't as good as I like to think.
I hope SJ is fully healed when he comes back as sure as fuck another dog players is going to chicken wing the same arm to see if they can take him out. The Warriors even with our paltry 7 points are threat to everyone as we havn't realised our potential and they all see us as capable of anything if we build up a head of steam. Thank fully although he is due back after two weeks there is a bye as well so hopefully that gets him fully fit. I personally have never recovered from any muscle tear in two weeks so don't know how athletes can.
You are not alone Worried to Death I fantasised about being webster at half time. I would have ordered a group pile on dog pile the next time he is tackled. And not to be concerned if we break his arm.

Then I calmed down and took a deep breath. And said. It is just a game.
 
I hope SJ is fully healed when he comes back as sure as fuck another dog players is going to chicken wing the same arm to see if they can take him out. The Warriors even with our paltry 7 points are threat to everyone as we havn't realised our potential and they all see us as capable of anything if we build up a head of steam. Thank fully although he is due back after two weeks there is a bye as well so hopefully that gets him fully fit. I personally have never recovered from any muscle tear in two weeks so don't know how athletes can.
You are not alone Worried to Death I fantasised about being webster at half time. I would have ordered a group pile on dog pile the next time he is tackled. And not to be concerned if we break his arm.

Then I calmed down and took a deep breath. And said. It is just a game.
It's just a game but it reveals a lot about our subconscious animal nature. I highly doubt Keary would have done that to Shaun if Campion was his bodyguard, so a certain degree of assumed violence outside the rules probably does have a telling factor on how players behave, and the results.
 
Interesting you have that Hethrington/JWH shot in the header.

I remember at the time on the gameday thread everyone blowing their load on about how "mad Jack is the enforcer we need", and how "JWH didnt want a bar of him", "Hethrington owned him" and how "Jack lifted his team mates".

I was a bit of a lone voice at the time in that while i enjoyed the "young bull vs old bull" spectacle it was actually Jarred that taught him a lesson. Score was 10 all when they came together, final score was 18-10 to the chooks, so it certainly didnt inspire his Warriors to go on with the job, and in the end winning is all that counts. Jack - 44 minutes - 46 metres/30 tackles. Jarred 47 minutes 178 metres/20 tackles.......it was a hands down victory to Jarred and a lesson if your going to be an enforcer you still need to be nailing down your core role, and if your going to play tough guy more often than not you better be ending up on the winning side otherwise its probably a distraction your game doesnt need,

I remember the hoohaa over Jarred not shaking his hand after the game. While it may seem a dick move to most, in the world of Alpha props to me that was just Jarred imposing his status in a "boy your not at my level yet, show some respect" sort of way. In the same way Gordon Tallis dealt with an upstart Ben Ross many moons ago. (In fact Tallis expained this by saying when he was coming through the grades their was a pecking order and a certain respect you showed, for him it was the likes of John Lomax and Quinten Pongia......hard men u wouldnt dream of disrespecting)
 
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The difference between a tough player and a bully is what they do when people aren’t watching.

A bully puts on a show and uses their physical size. A real tough player channels their physicality into dominating a tackle, into effort plays and 1%er, into giving 100% every week at training. These are the areas where the bully struggles..

Some players are both eg JWH. Others are just hotheads like Hetherington and a younger Jazz that cover for their lack of ability by trying to be tough.

What I’m getting at is an enforcer only adds to the result if they can also channel it into being a great player.


Favourite enforcer of all time: Matai.
 
Interesting you have that Hethrington/JWH shot in the header.

I remember at the time on the gameday thread everyone blowing their load on about how "mad Jack is the enforcer we need", and how "JWH didnt want a bar of him", "Hethrington owned him" and how "Jack lifted his team mates".

I was a bit of a lone voice at the time in that while i enjoyed the "young bull vs old bull" spectacle it was actually Jarred that taught him a lesson. Score was 10 all when they came together, final score was 18-10 to the chooks, so it certainly didnt inspire his Warriors to go on with the job, and in the end winning is all that counts. Jack - 44 minutes - 46 metres/30 tackles. Jarred 47 minutes 178 metres/20 tackles.......it was a hands down victory to Jarred and a lesson if your going to be an enforcer you still need to be nailing down your core role, and if your going to play tough guy more often than not you better be ending up on the winning side otherwise its probably a distraction your game doesnt need,

I remember the hoohaa over Jarred not shaking his hand after the game. While it may seem a dick move to most, in the world of Alpha props to me that was just Jarred imposing his status in a "boy your not at my level yet, show some respect" sort of way. In the same way Gordon Tallis dealt with an upstart Ben Ross many moons ago. (In fact Tallis expained this by saying when he was coming through the grades their was a pecking order and a certain respect you showed, for him it was the likes of John Lomax and Quinten Pongia......hard men u wouldnt dream of disrespecting)

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gW_QE564-JQ
 
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The difference between a tough player and a bully is what they do when people aren’t watching.

A bully puts on a show and uses their physical size. A real tough player channels their physicality into dominating a tackle, into effort plays and 1%er, into giving 100% every week at training. These are the areas where the bully struggles..

Some players are both eg JWH. Others are just hotheads like Hetherington and a younger Jazz that cover for their lack of ability by trying to be tough.

What I’m getting at is an enforcer only adds to the result if they can also channel it into being a great player.


Favourite enforcer of all time: Matai.
Great post !!!
 
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