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User Blog Riverina Pub - Winning percentages analysis for selected Warriors

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  1. Sports
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The Riverina Pub in combination with me working with ChatGPT to analyse the results presents Winning percentages of selected players.

How much can we read into Winning percentages ?

Well the answer right off the bat is nothing due to the small sample sizes meaning that any differences are within the confidence intervals or margin for error.

So I won’t be analysing this from a statistical perspective other than to note that these analysis are illustrative and cautioning to bear the small sample sizes in mind.

The method I am going to take is to list the season winning record for a team and then explore certain players of interest to explore how their winning record compared. Seasons where the player played only one or two games have been eliminated.

Player One Tanah Boyd

Minimum games per season three
Tanah Boyd
TeamYearAppearancesPlayer Winning %Team Winning %Delta
Gold Coast
2020​
13​
46.15%​
40.00%​
6.15%​
5.9995​
Gold Coast
2021​
6​
50%​
41.67%​
8.33%​
3​
Gold Coast
2022​
18​
22.22%​
25.00%​
-2.78%​
3.9996​
Gold Coast
2023​
21​
38.10%​
37.50%​
0.60%​
8.001​
Gold Coast
2024​
9​
22.22%​
33.33%​
-11.11%​
1.9998​
Player Weighted averageTeam AverageDelta
67​
34.3%​
35.50%​
-1.17%​
22.9999​


TMM



TMM
TeamYearAppearancesPlayer Winning %Team Winning %Delta
Penrith
2016​
6​
50%​
52.94%​
-2.94%​
Penrith
2017​
7​
28.57%​
50.00%​
-21.43%​
Cowboys
2017​
12​
58.33%​
66.67%​
-8.34%​
Cowboys
2018​
23​
30.43%​
26.32%​
4.11%​
Cowboys
2019​
7​
28.57%​
36.84%​
-8.27%​
Broncos
2022​
13​
61.54%​
59.09%​
2.45%​
Warriors
2023​
9​
44.44%​
66.67%​
-22.23%​
Warriors
2024​
16​
37.50%​
37.50%​
0.00%​
Player Weighted averageTeam AverageDelta
93​
46.23%​
49.50%​
-3.28%​


Metcalf

Luke Metcalf
TeamYearAppearancesPlayer Winning %Team Winning %Delta
Sharks
2021​
6​
33.00%​
41.67%​
-8.67%​
Warriors
2023​
12​
83.33%​
66.67%​
16.66%​
Warriors
2024​
7​
42.86%​
37.50%​
5.36%​
Player Weighted averageTeam AverageDelta
25​
59.9%​
48.61%​
11.31%​




CHT
TeamYearAppearancesPlayer Winning %Team Winning %Delta
Warriors
2019​
13​
23%​
36.84%​
-13.76%​
Warriors
2020​
13​
30.77%​
40.00%​
-9.23%​
Warriors
2021​
11​
36%​
33.33%​
3.03%​
Warriors
2022​
17​
23.53%​
25.00%​
-1.47%​
Warriors
2024​
17​
41.18%​
37.50%​
3.68%​
Player Weighted averageTeam AverageDelta
71​
31.0%​
34.54%​
-3.55%​


CHTPast 3 years onlyPlayer Weighted averageTeam AverageDelta
45​
33.3%​
31.94%​
1.39%​






Clark not Clarke
TeamYearAppearancesPlayer Winning %Team Winning %Delta
Gold Coast
2020​
10​
50.00%​
40.00%​
10.00%​
Gold Coast
2021​
19​
36.84%​
41.67%​
-4.83%​
Gold Coast
2022​
21​
19.05%​
25.00%​
-5.95%​
Gold Coast
2023​
20​
40.00%​
37.50%​
2.50%​
Gold Coast
2024​
24​
33.33%​
33.33%​
0.00%​
Player Weighted averageTeam AverageDelta
94​
34.04%​
35.50%​
-1.46%​





GENERAL OBSERVATIONS PLAYER BY PLAYER

Tanah Boyd

Tanah Boyd
has played several seasons with the Gold Coast Titans, and his win-loss record reflects some of the challenges faced by the team during those years. Over the course of his five seasons, Boyd has posted a player win percentage of 34.3%, which is slightly below the team's average of 35.5%. The Delta of -1.17% suggests that Boyd’s individual performance has not significantly deviated from the team's success—his contribution to wins has been close to what would be expected from the team’s general performance. Boyd’s 2020 season saw him post a 46.15% win rate, which was above the team’s 40%, signaling that he contributed positively to the team’s overall success. However, this was followed by a 2021 season where he posted a 50% win percentage, slightly outpacing the team’s 41.67%.

In contrast, Boyd’s performance in 2022 was less favorable, with a personal win percentage of just 22.22%, which was far below the team’s 25%. His 2023 and 2024 performances showed improvement, with 38.10% and 22.22% win percentages, respectively, though both still lagged behind the team’s averages. It’s worth noting that Boyd has been part of a team that’s consistently struggled in terms of overall performance, especially in seasons where they failed to make the finals. Despite this, Boyd has remained an important player for the Titans, contributing in key moments, but his individual record suggests he’s yet to make a game-changing difference on a consistent basis.

The weighted average of 34.3% highlights Boyd’s steady but unremarkable contribution to the team’s overall win rate. His slightly negative Delta points to the fact that, while Boyd hasn't necessarily been a major factor in the Titans' wins, he has also avoided being a liability during their losses.


Te Maire Martin

Te Maire Martin
has had a more varied career with different clubs, and his individual win percentage reflects the ups and downs of playing for teams with differing levels of success. Over the course of four seasons and a total of 93 appearances, Te Maire Martin has accumulated a personal win percentage of 46.23%, slightly below his teams' collective win rate of 49.5%. This negative Delta of -3.28% suggests that, on average, Te Maire Martin has underperformed compared to his teams’ overall success. While this difference is not substantial, it indicates that Te Maire Martin’s teams have often won more games than he personally contributed to, which could be indicative of his involvement in games that the team managed to win despite his individual performance or vice versa.

Breaking down his performance by season, Te Maire Martin’s 2016 and 2017 seasons were marked by a lower win rate relative to his teams, particularly during his time with Penrith in 2017, where he posted just 28.57%, far below the team’s 50% win rate. In contrast, his 2018 season with the Cowboys saw a turnaround, as he posted a 30.43% win percentage, slightly outpacing the team’s 26.32%—a rare instance where Te Maire Martin managed to perform above the team’s poor record.

By 2022, with the Broncos, Te Maire Martin showed more promise, with a 61.54% win rate, outperforming the team's 59.09% record. Unfortunately, this improvement wasn’t sustained in his following years, with the Warriors in 2023 and 2024 posting 44.44% and 37.5% win rates, respectively. His performance in these years again aligned closely with the team’s record, suggesting that while Te Maire Martin is a reliable player, he hasn’t been able to dramatically alter the outcome of matches for his teams.

Te Maire Martin’s weighted average of 46.23% is reflective of a career that has had more struggles than successes in terms of win percentage. While his teams have generally fared better than his individual performance suggests, Te Maire Martin has been consistent enough to not significantly drag down his teams.


Luke Metcalf

Luke Metcalf
has had an interesting career trajectory, with two seasons in the NRL so far and a high level of success in his limited appearances. Over his two seasons with the Warriors (2023 and 2024), he has posted an impressive win percentage of 59.9%, well above the team’s average of 48.61%. This positive Delta of 11.31% indicates that Metcalf has consistently outperformed his team, contributing significantly to their success over the course of his appearances. His performance in 2023 with the Warriors stands out, where he posted an 83.33% win rate, well above the team’s 66.67% win percentage that season. This strong showing is a testament to his ability to influence matches and make a tangible impact, especially in tight games.

In 2024, Metcalf’s win percentage was 42.86%, still higher than the Warriors’ 37.5% for the season, though the team’s overall struggles that year meant his individual performance couldn’t carry them to greater success. Nevertheless, Metcalf’s ability to maintain a higher win percentage than the team’s suggests he has a positive impact on the field, even if the team’s overall record is lackluster.

Metcalf’s weighted average of 59.9% highlights him as a player who has outperformed his team and is one of the few players in this analysis to consistently achieve above-average results in terms of win percentage. His performance, especially in key moments, indicates that he has been an important and reliable contributor to the Warriors’ efforts, making him a player to watch as his career progresses.


CHT (Chanel Harris-Tavita)

Chanel Harris-Tavita
has experienced a career marked by inconsistency, particularly in his win-loss record with the Warriors. His overall personal win percentage of 31.0% is well below the team’s average of 34.54%, highlighting that, on the whole, he has struggled to achieve wins at a rate comparable to his teammates. His Delta of -3.55% reflects this trend, suggesting that his individual performances have generally been less successful than the team’s collective results.

In 2019, CHT posted a win percentage of just 23%, far below the team’s 36.84%, and his 2020 and 2022 seasons were similarly marked by subpar performances, with win percentages of 30.77% and 23.53%, respectively. These figures indicate that he has been part of a Warriors team that has faced challenges, particularly in the early years of his career. However, there was a slight improvement in 2021 when his win percentage rose to 36%, which was above the team’s 33.33%.

Additionally, if we focus specifically on his last three years, as shown in the additional table, CHT’s performance is far more encouraging. From 2022-2024, his weighted average is 33.3%, which is an improvement over his earlier years, and significantly higher than his earlier win rates. In 2024, CHT posted a 41.18% win percentage, which was above the Warriors' 37.50% team record. This recent improvement highlights that CHT has gradually become a more effective and consistent contributor as he has gained more experience in the NRL. His positive Delta in these last few years suggests that CHT has started to become a more reliable player and his early struggles as a 19-year-old rookie are now behind him.


Erin Clark

Erin Clark
, like many players on the Gold Coast Titans, has seen fluctuating results in terms of individual and team success. Over his five seasons with the Titans, Clark has posted a personal win percentage of 34.04%, which is very close to the team average of 35.50%. This small negative Delta of -1.46% indicates that, on average, Clark has been a player who performs roughly in line with the team’s overall success, without significantly outshining or underperforming relative to his teammates.

In 2020, Clark posted a 50% win rate, which was well above the team’s 40%, signaling that he contributed positively to the team’s success that season. However, his performance dipped in 2021 and 2022, with win percentages of 36.84% and 19.05%, respectively, both of which were below the team’s average for those years. In 2023, Clark rebounded with a 40% win rate, slightly outperforming the team’s 37.50%. His most recent season in 2024 was notable in that he played every game of the season for the Titans which indicates he is a reliable player from an injury perspective.



Wrighty’s Hot Take

The above general observations were the on the surface ones typed up by Chat GPT. What is my deeper take?

Firstly I can’t stress enough the small sample sizes so there is nothing conclusive to comment on. Instead I am going to use the phrase “there is evidence to suggest”.

So there is evidence to suggest the following:

  • Luke Metcalf already is and is going to be a point of difference and an asset in games. I define an asset as being someone who can change a game rather than being a steady eddie or neutral player who won’t let you down. He is off to a fast start and should be regarded as our number one ranked half going into next year.
  • Our second ranked half based on his last three years delta only, if you ignore his rookie years, is CHT. This was a surprise finding to me. You may still not want to start him though as we need a goal kicker. And he has shown that can’t be him..
  • Our third ranked half is Tanah Boyd based on his career delta. He can goal kick though so maybe that gets him the nod over CHT as there wasn’t much between them.
  • Strangely TMM showed up last if we are only judging CHT on his last three years. His delta of -3.55% wasn’t far off the pace which still puts him in the steady Eddie category and as being a neutral player rather than positioning him as a liability. However he of all the players measured is the closest to being a liability.
  • Clark not Clarke ie our new addition from the Gold Coast Titans. He will be a steady Eddie player for the Warriors and not score game winning tries or move the needle on our winning percentage based on his career delta. He will be an honest tryer though and his delta is respectable even though very slightly in the negative.
Your thoughts as experts on the Warriors and Rugby League what do you make of this...
 

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User Blog Riverina Pub - NZ Cricket needs to fix selection process

Blog Topic
  1. Sports
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Tim Southee is 35 and turns 36 in December and is one of a number of odd selections for NZ Cricket in the current test series.
You can argue that Hadlee was 39 when he retired, but Hadlee had long since been off a short run and hadn't been express since his early twenties.
Regardless Tim is 35, soon to be 36, and should not be selected any more.

I looked into it tonight and was alarmed to find this article. We no longer have a selection committee.

"Former Otago Volts player and selector Sam Wells has been appointed BLACKCAPS selection manager, taking over from Gavin Larsen ahead of the start of the domestic season.
The role is full-time in the summer with reduced hours in the winter and will see Wells work in conjunction with BLACKCAPS head coach and chief selector, Gary Stead."

Gary Stead is the chief selector with no equal on the committee to hold him to account and debate with him.
The problem is not Gary Stead the problem is the decision by New Zealand Cricket to walk away from its tried and tested model of having a selection committee to debate who gets selected.

Wake me up when this situation is rectified. I don't mind Stead. He is an ok coach. Not spectacular. But he is ok. The problem is expecting any one person to be intelligent or wise enough to pick a national cricket team by themselves. Whenever we make decisions at work we do it through a process of discussion. It is well documented that the IQ of an intelligent person is 115 points (one standard deviation above average). The IQ of a 3 or four person group is estimated to be over 400 points. Because of the opportunity to talk it out and spot outlier decisions.
Most of Stead's selections are pretty good. Including having faith in Rachin while he finds his game at international level. O'Rourke was picked based on potential and Ben Sears was a great hunch in the test against Australia.
To finish this post - I probably could criticise him for picking two seamers for a test against Sri Lanka in Sri Lanka. I might have opened the bowling with O'Rourke and a spinner at the other end and played another specialist spinner. I think we relied too much on having Phillips and Rachin in the side.

I have decided this flaw of selecting the team and movement away from using a selection committee deserves its own blog post in the Riverina.

Wake Up New Zealand Cricket.
 

User Blog The Riverina Pub - The Commute

Blog Topic
  1. Sports
  2. Culture
  3. Life
  4. Yarn
  5. Rant
Hi Everyone

Million Thank you's to @tajhay for setting up these blogs. I plan to cover off in this blog series:
1) Various Life Rants and Yarns
2) Random Thoughts about Sports
3) Thoughts about Life
4) Whatever else comes to mind

Why did I choose the name of the Blog? The Riverina Pub was a bit of a dive in Hamilton East in the 1970s and 80s and sadly closed before I got old enough to go there. Mothers and Wives shuddered at the name of the den of inequity whenever it was mentioned. One of my life long dreams will never be fulfilled as will never get to set foot in that terrific establishment. But it lives on in the name of this blog.
You are all invited to grab a seat, get a beer and read the blog entries and hopefully respond positively.
Blog Rules:
Rule 1: There will be no disparaging of John Wright in this blog by the visitors. He is to be regarded as the great player he was.
Rule 2: Some of my views may be controversial. Not many, most will be light hearted, if they are controversial especially about sports, roll with the punches and recognise you are in the Riverina and have another beer !!!


So with that, lets take you to the very first instalment of the blog...

The Commute
thecommute.jpg
I commute to work a couple of times per week and it is a loooong commute. 40 minutes by train plus waiting time for the train to arrive.

In peak hour to go home to Upper Hutt from Wellington, in rush hour, the trains take us tired-from- the-working-the-whole-day-civil-servants back to the Hutt Valley once every twenty minutes.

But wait, to help cater to the extra demand at 5pm an extra train is inserted right at 5:13pm just precisely at the time those who leave at 5 o’clock on the dot from work can catch the train.

I hate the 5:13pm train and everyone associated with it.

If you hop on board the train at 5:10pm or 5:11pm there won’t be any seats and the passengers who already have a seat snigger underneath their breath at you that you will have to stand for 40 minutes while they got their early to secure a seat. They all apparently hurry to the 5:13pm to get a seat and it is full by 5:08 at the latest and the passengers who get a seat think they are superior to any one who didn’t organise themselves well enough to do similar.

The word Supercilious comes to mind “behaving or looking as though one thinks one is superior to others.” The passengers on that train are supercilious.

The passengers on the 5:22pm and 4:57pm train are perfectly normal. It is just those jerks on the 5:13pm train that I take issue with.

I won’t catch the 5:13pm train now and I advise you if you are in Wellington to avoid it also. Even if I have to wait an extra 15 minutes for the 5:22pm to arrive. I mean they must all leave work slightly early and organise their afternoon around getting a seat on the 5:13pm train. How dare they be so organised and so smug about securing a seat.

“Sorry Kath gotta cut this conversation short as my train fills up fast”.
“But we havn’t finished discussing this important issue Steve and you report to me”.
“Gotta go Kath. Nothing personal”.

If you ever here of a train being derailed leaving Wellington it was nothing to do with me. Just saying.
 
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User Blog Riverina Pub: Self-Forgiveness

Blog Topic
  1. Life
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SELF FORGIVENESS

I have debated posted this but thought if it helps one person then it is worth it. I am still fearful of getting into how to suck eggs or being prescriptive with advice. I will manage that by keeping this to being a brief blog. There is no religious angle to the following. The topic of self-forgiveness has been on my mind as I have had some time on my hands to think.

I have passed the age of 50. The older you get the more memories you have. Some good. Some you remonstrate yourself about.

This post is about how to get past remonstrating yourself for things that happened long ago.

First suggestion, Is that if the person concerned is still in your life, try bringing up the incident up from 30 years ago especially if it is a straight apology from you to them. I did this recently over a friend’s bike I had needlessly broken over 40 years ago. The friend is still in my life and gave me a hearing and forgave me. He is a father now so has a father’s perspective. He told me I had just been a child and that children do silly things.

Thing is I had walked around with that on my conscience for 43 years. I didn’t think about it every day. I didn’t think about it every year. Sometimes 5 years would go by without thinking about it. But part of my brain was holding on to that.

I recently apologised to several people for things from a long time ago.

My second suggestion is to give to charity any ill-gotten gains you acquired or damages you caused someone else that will be too hard to repay. Sometimes a charity I give to routinely gets very specific amounts from me and they must wonder what is happening.

I knew my friend wouldn’t accept repayment for the damage I did to his bike, and I also felt that would be seen as paying him off and downgrading his apology acceptance which came from the bottom of his heart and was freely given. So donated what I thought the cost of the bike repairs would have come to plus 40 years of interest to charity.

Afterwards then had a revelation of sorts, and this thought is my third and final suggestion. Some of the things I remonstrate myself is telling myself off for not being more assertive or telling someone off when I had been the victim in the past. Suddenly have decided or realised not to do that. I was the victim. You were the victim for your similar memory. Why should the onus be on me, when I was caught unawares and not expecting the situation to do something amazing and protect myself better. The onus was on the attacker not to have said those things. And unless they are a psychopath at some point they will have to confront their own conscience about doing that. There will be an accounting for them and I should not blame myself for not defending myself better.

As a result I have made that decision and immediately let go of about 5 or 6 incidents over the past 30 years.

After going through this process am finding myself less likely to spend hours thinking by myself. Am more in the moment. And more present.

All advice or guidelines break down with extreme examples so somethings are a lot harder to move on from than others. On this note, if you have a really extreme example don’t feel obliged to share it as I doubt the rest of us will have any advice on how to solve an extreme example.

A main reason had the courage to post this blog post is that the members of this web site are very mature. You will have your own thoughts on the importance of self-forgiveness I would love to hear.

Thanks
 

User Blog Riverina Pub - Will that be 6 Fins or 7 Fins?

Blog Topic
  1. Culture
  2. Life
  3. Yarn
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When Wrighty grew up in the 1970s it was a single or multi bar heater in your lounge to keep you warm on a cold winters night. The bar was always orange and it radiated heat but the bills were astronomical and even back then you could be looking at a $400 power bill.

Heat pumps appeared around the year 2000 but the role of a heater has never disappeared. Especially for Kiwis who grew up with memories of a single bar heater.

Oil Column heaters have been in vogue for about twenty years and seem to be the preferred choice for those who want a heater.

What I want to focus on in this blog is a rather clever marketing feature the Oil Column sector has come up with.
They let you choose the number of Fins you want with your heater. The picture in this blog is of a Nine Fin heater and they go up to Eleven Fins.

It was my mothers birthday a few weeks ago and she wanted a new oil column heater as her gift from me. I googled which store had the best prices which turned out to be Mitre 10. Then as we drove to Mitre 10 a detailed conversation broke out between us as to how many Fins she wanted. She had given the matter a great deal of thought. Her current model had 5 fins and she thought she needed 7.
I told her to get the maximum 11 Fins but not turn the temperature up all the way. But she wanted the optimum number of Fins to match her room. So was pretty set on getting 7 Fins.
We arrived a Mitre 10 and they had laid out maybe 10 choices of Oil Column heaters with many different Fin options and price points. We paid no attention to the brand name and focused on how many Fins we wanted.
After much discussion I got her to upgrade from 7 Fins and we walked out of there with a 9 Fin heater for $170. Which we were happy with.

I got to her house and wrestled with the dreaded wheels and feet and finally installed those. Then wheeled it in to her room and gave it a test drive.
All were happy and she was very pleased she went with 9 Fins instead of 7 Fins.

But we are still not at the crux of this blog post.

I have a marketing degree. In marketing theory they teach you that if you manage a product you should try to turn it from a "low involvement product" to more like a "high involvement product".

"The level of involvement in buying decisions may be considered a continuum from decisions that are fairly routine (consumers are not very involved) to decisions that require extensive thought and a high level of involvement. Whether a decision is low, high, or limited, involvement varies by consumer, not by product.
Examples of Low involvement - light bulbs, photo copy paper
High involvement - Luxury vehicle, wedding dress"


Getting customers who buy oil column heaters to think in advance about and actively choose how many Fins they want increases the level of involvement with oil column heaters as a product.

As a marketer when customers are more involved with your product customer satisfaction and perceived benefits of the purchase will rise. And ultimately you avoid turning your product into a commodity where only price differentiates. The Oil Column Heater sector has effectively introduced customisability of Oil Colum heaters by letting you pick how many Fins you want. Theoretically owners of Oil Column heaters should be more satisfied with their purchase and were even prepared to pay a modest premium or cushion factor in the price for getting what they wanted.

How about you?
Do you own an Oil Column heater and did you carefully choose the number of Fins?
Have you noticed any other products that have recently introduced customisability of its features to increase the level of consumer involvement?
Did you grow up with a single bar heater?
Or do you have any comments or reactions to this blog?

Welcome to the Riverina sit down and I will pour you a beer while we wait for tonight's Warriors game.
 

User Blog The Riverina Pub - Do Enforcers help you win NRL games?

Blog Topic
  1. Sports
The Enforcer - do they help win NRL games? Is an enforcer what the warriors need?

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With the Warriors Soft bellied reaction to the Roosters manhandling and giving Shaun our star play maker a chicken wing leading him to be out for 2 matches plenty of discussion that we need an enforcer.

This analysis looks at the impact of having Enforcers in the team vs standings in the ladder.

Please read these Caveats first

This is an entertainment oriented analysis and not designed for an academic journal. The results are preliminary and based on only ten games this season. Any analysis should be taken tentatively until repeatability is established by variations of the study being repeated over multiple years with different parameters and assumptions.

Methodology

Firstly my credentials for this analysis is that I have been a numerical analyst for large companies. So I will try to present these findings with some appropriate cautions.

I had to define what an enforcer was. In the National Hockey League they use penalty minutes so I went with something similar here for this NRL analysis.

Table 1.0 Shows a list of players with greater than 5 penalties who are forwards (excluding hookers) who have been assessed more than 0.6 penalties per 80 minutes of game time.

Without surprise JWH is near the top of this list. There are faults with using this system in that some players who are just ill disciplined like Jackson Ford make the list but for the most part I was comfortable with this method as it was objective rather than me just naming enforcers by memory or impressions of watching them. I only used Forwards as backs aren’t ever enforcers in my history of watching. There were a lot of hookers on the list that I deleted. They must all be agitators but I don’t think they are big enough to be enforcers. There were some notable missing names of this list such as Haumole Olakau'atu bur overall I was happy with it and it was more comprehensive than using sin bin data which was my other option.

Here is Table 1.0 for you to peruse. Results from the 2024 season first 10 games



NameTeam
G
MIN
PEN
SB
Penatiles/80mins
10J. Aloiai​
MAN)​
9​
379​
7​
1​
1.477573​
29S. Hughes​
CBY)​
9​
275​
5​
1​
1.454545​
2J. Hopgood​
PAR)​
9​
553​
9​
0​
1.301989​
29J. Waerea-Hargreaves​
SYD)​
8​
315​
5​
0​
1.269841​
29A. Seyfarth​
WST)​
9​
323​
5​
1​
1.23839​
18F. Molo​
STI)​
9​
394​
6​
1​
1.218274​
29B. Cartwright​
PAR)​
5​
360​
5​
0​
1.111111​
10C. McInnes​
CRO)​
9​
524​
7​
0​
1.068702​
10T. Loiero​
MEL)​
9​
525​
7​
0​
1.066667​
29G. Neame​
NQL)​
10​
384​
5​
0​
1.041667​
10J. Bateman​
WST)​
8​
559​
7​
0​
1.001789​
18A. Crichton​
SYD)​
8​
529​
6​
0​
0.907372​
7V. Kikau​
CBY)​
9​
706​
8​
0​
0.906516​
10R. Cotter​
NQL)​
10​
641​
7​
0​
0.873635​
7J. Ford​
WAR)​
10​
773​
8​
0​
0.827943​
29J. King​
MEL)​
9​
508​
5​
0​
0.787402​
29S. Blore​
MEL)​
7​
516​
5​
0​
0.775194​
29C. Murray​
SOU)​
8​
529​
5​
0​
0.756144​
29B. Nikora​
CRO)​
7​
543​
5​
1​
0.736648​
18D. Lucas​
NEW)​
9​
652​
6​
0​
0.736196​
18T. Wilton​
CRO)​
9​
710​
6​
0​
0.676056​
29V. Radley​
SYD)​
8​
598​
5​
1​
0.668896​
29J. Salmon​
CBY)​
9​
605​
5​
0​
0.661157​
29M. Barnett​
WAR)​
10​
621​
5​
0​
0.644122​
18P. Carrigan​
BRI)​
10​
750​
6​
0​
0.64​
18J. Nanai​
NQL)​
10​
769​
6​
0​
0.624187​
29N. Butcher​
SYD)​
9​
645​
5​
0​
0.620155​
29I. Papali'i​
WST)​
9​
666​
5​
0​
0.600601​




FINDINGS & ANALYSIS

Please review table 2.0 below



NRL STANDINGSEnforcers > 1.2 Penalties/80 minsEnforcers >1.0 Penalties per 80 minsEnforcers>0.6 Penalties per 80 minutes
1​
Sharks
1​
3​
2​
Panthers
3​
Storm
1​
3​
4​
Dolphins
5​
Roosters
1​
1​
4​
6​
Broncos
1​
7​
Raiders
8​
Sea Eagles
1​
1​
1​
9​
Bulldogs
1​
1​
3​
10​
Knights
1​
11​
Dragons
1​
1​
1​
12​
Cowboys
1​
4​
13​
Eels
1​
2​
2​
14​
Warriors
2​
15​
Wests
1​
2​
3​
16​
Titans
17​
Rabbitohs
1​
Count Top 8 teams​
24
5​
Count Bottom 9 teams​
45
8​


The following are hypotheses that the data suggests that need further testing to be valid, but as discussed earlier I will present them as tentative findings for entertainment purposes.

Please note small sample sizes

  • The top 8 teams did not have more enforcers than the bottom 9 teams. In fact where the threshold was >1.2 and >0.6 the top 8 teams had less enforcers.
  • Of the top 8 teams the three teams with the most enforcers >0.6 threshold were the Storm, Roosters, and Sharks while the Panthers, Dolphins and Raiders appear to follow a different strategy and not have any enforcers (using the definition of enforcers I used for this study).
  • The four teams who did not use any enforcers under all scenarios were, The Panthers ranked 2nd, The Dolphins ranked 4th, The Raiders ranked 7th, the Titans ranked 16th. The coaches of those teams are all arguably elite coaches: Ivan Cleary, Wayne Bennett, Ricky Stuart, Des Hasler.
  • Where the threshold was set at greater than 1.2 penalties per 80 minutes only JWH Roosters and Josh Aloiai Manly showed up as enforcers for the top 8 teams. Other teams like the Storm and Sharks instead used a team approach to enforcement. Rather than having one player with a large amount of penalty minutes they had several players with a lower but still significant amount of penalty minutes. Team toughness and team enforcement rather than one guy riding shot gun.
  • The Warriors had two players who made the grade as enforcers under the lightest threshold at 0.6 penalties per 80 minutes but none of our players exceeded 1.0 or 1,2 penalties per 80 minutes. The Warriors seemed to be neither really using enforcement or making a point of not using it like the four mentioned teams earlier in Point 3 above.
What does this all mean?

Well it presents data that is pretty sketchy given small sample sizes and lack of repeatability at this stage. But it seems to fly in the face of quotes that Jazz has made about how important an enforcer is to stop the team getting pillaged in the ruck. Instead the top 8 teams are no more likely to have enforcers than bottom 9 teams and in some threshold scenarios the top 8 teams appeared less likely to have enforcers.

I think it all means, if it is all true, which it may not be, due the vast number of noted limitations with this study, that getting tougher and getting an enforcer into the side isn’t going to help the Warriors. In fact, improving discipline and getting discipline might be more helpful.

Or given three of the top 8 teams took a team toughness approach with slightly lower penalties per minutes but multiple guys appearing on the list for that team, if the Warriors do want to be a tough team then team toughness seems to be more popular rather than putting into the hands of one enforcer.

Thoughts??? Comments??? Go easy on the study as there are admittedly plenty of problems with it !!!
 
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