NRL Stats

6 of last years top 8 had youth (inexperience), seems like an asset… but then there was the Tigers 🤣

Can our old men defy the odds!


There was an article sometime last year that crunched the numbers on GF winning 17s.

Can't remember exactly but they reckon winning NRL teams tend to skew a bit younger with a bunch of players in a similar kind of age bracket 22-26ish who've played a heap together coming up.
 

NZWarriors.com

In another thread i noted that after the first round the Warriors sat 15th lowest in PCM to total run metre ratios. They improved in Round 2 to 11th & ranked 12th in Round 3 with 33.6%. Despite their loss, the Raiders were the top team in the competition last round with 40.9% of all their metres coming post contact. That worked out to be 3.3m PCMs per carry.
Parra, Canterbury, Newcastle & North Queensland also grabbed wins despite being lower on the ledger than their opposition so there's no real correlation to be found but it's something I think I'll keep track of
 
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In another thread i noted that after the first round the Warriors sat 15th lowest in PCM to total run metres ratios. They improved in Round 2 to 11th & ranked 12th in Round 3 with 33.6%. Despite their loss, the Raiders were the top team in the competition last round with 40.9% of all their metres coming post contact. That worked out to be 3.3m PCMs per carry.
Parra, Canterbury, Newcastle & North Queensland also grabbed wins despite being lower on the ledger than their opposition so there's no real correlation to be found but it's something I think I'll keep track of
Interesting! It is a small sample size, of course, but would be an interesting one for @Fonzie to digest on the next TWL pod he is on.
 
Hasn’t been much to brag about this year but we still have a few guys in top 5s statistically.

Afb 2nd for run meters and a clear first for post contact.
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Barney coming in 4th.

Jackson ford hasn’t got the wraps he did last year but he’s still been working hard- second for most tackles.
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And second for decoys- Barney with another mention one spot behind him.
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Unfortunately he’s still got a few too many of these in him…
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Egans a bit out of favor but still 2nd for dummy half runs.
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And somehow Sj still featuring in the kicking stats.
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I guess this is a stat.

When was the last time we’ve one suspension in FG for a player after 21 rounds???

Dallins the only one who’s copped a suspension this year right?

Absolutely unheard of.
 
I found this stat page very interesting. The peak age for an NRL player is 26, even for props and performance tapers off after then.

This is a few years old now and with the game speeding up it’s probably even more relevant.

Needs to be factored into recruitment as our 24 team displayed this drop off perfectly. Of note, centre is the position where output drops off earliest and by RTS age it doesn’t work…

 
Another goodie from Rugby League Eye Test about the limitations of tackle percentage and missed tackles in general as a measure of a players defensive ability.


Matt Lodge always springs to mind with D stats, getting left on the deck behind the ruck isn't going to hurt your tackle percentage, but it'll damn sure hurt your D line.
 
Another goodie from Rugby League Eye Test about the limitations of tackle percentage and missed tackles in general as a measure of a players defensive ability.


Matt Lodge always springs to mind with D stats, getting left on the deck behind the ruck isn't going to hurt your tackle percentage, but it'll damn sure hurt your D line.
Yes. We've had some discussion about stats before and this is just another example 🙄
 
Another goodie from Rugby League Eye Test about the limitations of tackle percentage and missed tackles in general as a measure of a players defensive ability.


Matt Lodge always springs to mind with D stats, getting left on the deck behind the ruck isn't going to hurt your tackle percentage, but it'll damn sure hurt your D line.
Interesting stuff.

It adds to the data for defence but I don’t think it’s the full story.

Flaws: A player that misses a tackle with a great fullback will be ranked a better defender than one with Walsh at the back. Meters after a miss is very subjective.

Flaw example 2: Mahoney is getting worse tackling percentages over time but this says it doesn’t matter because players aren’t getting as far over time. That would be because his team mates are having to cover him closely opening gaps elsewhere. Still a stink defender.

Flaw example 3: as above a great one on one tackler will have less support around them so breaks will be longer. He’s a great defender because his team mates have faith in him, not because on the odd muck up it takes longer for his team mates to cover.

Example 4: teams that have a compressed defence or fullback closer to the line will have different meters after a break because of team tactics rather than the individual player.

Example 5: Walsh isn’t amongst the worse defenders so it must be flawed!


Fascinating to look at it all and even with these points it still makes you think about defence more deeply.
 
Interesting stuff.


Flaw example 2: Mahoney is getting worse tackling percentages over time but this says it doesn’t matter because players aren’t getting as far over time. That would be because his team mates are having to cover him closely opening gaps elsewhere. Still a stink defender.

Flaw example 3: as above a great one on one tackler will have less support around them so breaks will be longer. He’s a great defender because his team mates have faith in him, not because on the odd muck up it takes longer for his team mates to cover.

Interesting points.

To Flaw 2, i'd actually say not neccassarily, if Mahoney shoots off his line and stops a runners forward momentum but the runner carries on sideways and the next guy over actually finishes the tackle, that missed tackle has still contributed to effective team defence and that lower post miss number. Even if he gets flat out bumped, like most hookers he gets spotted up, but if his line speed means he's bumped going in hard and low meeting ball carrier at the ad line rather than catching on ball sitting on his heels and getting carried another 5, which is more effective?

The other flaw with that flaw is did his misses actually open more space outside? Or is he defending in the middle and Ciraldo wants two shoulders into every ball carrier so his middles are in tight anyway so he can rush off the line like he does confident to put his body in front and not to worried about being bumped becasue the system has the middles there in tight by design?

As to flaw 3, I'd also say not neccassarily, an outside back on a bad team might have to cover more space because their middle gets shortened up more routinely than a "great defender" on a good team. The space between the 4 defender and the sideline might be wider on a shitty team than a good team because the middle is useless, which is always going to effect your tackle percentage and perception as a defender becauss of the extra space you have to cover and less time you have to make decisions.

Most of us would have played on good and bad league teams at whatever level during our lives, and from my own experience as a centre, defending on a good team vs defending on a shit team are two completely different assignments. Nothing changed in my ability, but my edge leaked way more when I had lower quality players inside me.
 
Interesting points.

To Flaw 2, i'd actually say not neccassarily, if Mahoney shoots off his line and stops a runners forward momentum but the runner carries on sideways and the next guy over actually finishes the tackle, that missed tackle has still contributed to effective team defence and that lower post miss number. Even if he gets flat out bumped, like most hookers he gets spotted up, but if his line speed means he's bumped going in hard and low meeting ball carrier at the ad line rather than catching on ball sitting on his heels and getting carried another 5, which is more effective?

The other flaw with that flaw is did his misses actually open more space outside? Or is he defending in the middle and Ciraldo wants two shoulders into every ball carrier so his middles are in tight anyway so he can rush off the line like he does confident to put his body in front and not to worried about being bumped becasue the system has the middles there in tight by design?

As to flaw 3, I'd also say not neccassarily, an outside back on a bad team might have to cover more space because their middle gets shortened up more routinely than a "great defender" on a good team. The space between the 4 defender and the sideline might be wider on a shitty team than a good team because the middle is useless, which is always going to effect your tackle percentage and perception as a defender becauss of the extra space you have to cover and less time you have to make decisions.

Most of us would have played on good and bad league teams at whatever level during our lives, and from my own experience as a centre, defending on a good team vs defending on a shit team are two completely different assignments. Nothing changed in my ability, but my edge leaked way more when I had lower quality players inside me.
I guess it’s all context and even though those stats try to define the context, there’s a lot of complexity to it.
 
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