- Blog Topic
- Sports
The Riverina Pub in combination with me working with ChatGPT to analyse the results presents Winning percentages of selected players.
How much can we read into Winning percentages ?
Well the answer right off the bat is nothing due to the small sample sizes meaning that any differences are within the confidence intervals or margin for error.
So I won’t be analysing this from a statistical perspective other than to note that these analysis are illustrative and cautioning to bear the small sample sizes in mind.
The method I am going to take is to list the season winning record for a team and then explore certain players of interest to explore how their winning record compared. Seasons where the player played only one or two games have been eliminated.
Player One Tanah Boyd
| Minimum games per season three | ||||||
| Tanah Boyd | ||||||
| Team | Year | Appearances | Player Winning % | Team Winning % | Delta | |
| Gold Coast | 2020 | 13 | 46.15% | 40.00% | 6.15% | 5.9995 |
| Gold Coast | 2021 | 6 | 50% | 41.67% | 8.33% | 3 |
| Gold Coast | 2022 | 18 | 22.22% | 25.00% | -2.78% | 3.9996 |
| Gold Coast | 2023 | 21 | 38.10% | 37.50% | 0.60% | 8.001 |
| Gold Coast | 2024 | 9 | 22.22% | 33.33% | -11.11% | 1.9998 |
| Player Weighted average | Team Average | Delta | ||||
67 | 34.3% | 35.50% | -1.17% | 22.9999 |
TMM
| TMM | |||||
| Team | Year | Appearances | Player Winning % | Team Winning % | Delta |
| Penrith | 2016 | 6 | 50% | 52.94% | -2.94% |
| Penrith | 2017 | 7 | 28.57% | 50.00% | -21.43% |
| Cowboys | 2017 | 12 | 58.33% | 66.67% | -8.34% |
| Cowboys | 2018 | 23 | 30.43% | 26.32% | 4.11% |
| Cowboys | 2019 | 7 | 28.57% | 36.84% | -8.27% |
| Broncos | 2022 | 13 | 61.54% | 59.09% | 2.45% |
| Warriors | 2023 | 9 | 44.44% | 66.67% | -22.23% |
| Warriors | 2024 | 16 | 37.50% | 37.50% | 0.00% |
| Player Weighted average | Team Average | Delta | |||
93 | 46.23% | 49.50% | -3.28% |
Metcalf
| Luke Metcalf | |||||
| Team | Year | Appearances | Player Winning % | Team Winning % | Delta |
| Sharks | 2021 | 6 | 33.00% | 41.67% | -8.67% |
| Warriors | 2023 | 12 | 83.33% | 66.67% | 16.66% |
| Warriors | 2024 | 7 | 42.86% | 37.50% | 5.36% |
| Player Weighted average | Team Average | Delta | |||
25 | 59.9% | 48.61% | 11.31% |
| CHT | |||||
| Team | Year | Appearances | Player Winning % | Team Winning % | Delta |
| Warriors | 2019 | 13 | 23% | 36.84% | -13.76% |
| Warriors | 2020 | 13 | 30.77% | 40.00% | -9.23% |
| Warriors | 2021 | 11 | 36% | 33.33% | 3.03% |
| Warriors | 2022 | 17 | 23.53% | 25.00% | -1.47% |
| Warriors | 2024 | 17 | 41.18% | 37.50% | 3.68% |
| Player Weighted average | Team Average | Delta | |||
71 | 31.0% | 34.54% | -3.55% |
| CHT | Past 3 years only | Player Weighted average | Team Average | Delta | |
45 | 33.3% | 31.94% | 1.39% | ||
| Clark not Clarke | |||||
| Team | Year | Appearances | Player Winning % | Team Winning % | Delta |
| Gold Coast | 2020 | 10 | 50.00% | 40.00% | 10.00% |
| Gold Coast | 2021 | 19 | 36.84% | 41.67% | -4.83% |
| Gold Coast | 2022 | 21 | 19.05% | 25.00% | -5.95% |
| Gold Coast | 2023 | 20 | 40.00% | 37.50% | 2.50% |
| Gold Coast | 2024 | 24 | 33.33% | 33.33% | 0.00% |
| Player Weighted average | Team Average | Delta | |||
94 | 34.04% | 35.50% | -1.46% |
Tanah Boyd
Tanah Boyd has played several seasons with the Gold Coast Titans, and his win-loss record reflects some of the challenges faced by the team during those years. Over the course of his five seasons, Boyd has posted a player win percentage of 34.3%, which is slightly below the team's average of 35.5%. The Delta of -1.17% suggests that Boyd’s individual performance has not significantly deviated from the team's success—his contribution to wins has been close to what would be expected from the team’s general performance. Boyd’s 2020 season saw him post a 46.15% win rate, which was above the team’s 40%, signaling that he contributed positively to the team’s overall success. However, this was followed by a 2021 season where he posted a 50% win percentage, slightly outpacing the team’s 41.67%.
In contrast, Boyd’s performance in 2022 was less favorable, with a personal win percentage of just 22.22%, which was far below the team’s 25%. His 2023 and 2024 performances showed improvement, with 38.10% and 22.22% win percentages, respectively, though both still lagged behind the team’s averages. It’s worth noting that Boyd has been part of a team that’s consistently struggled in terms of overall performance, especially in seasons where they failed to make the finals. Despite this, Boyd has remained an important player for the Titans, contributing in key moments, but his individual record suggests he’s yet to make a game-changing difference on a consistent basis.
The weighted average of 34.3% highlights Boyd’s steady but unremarkable contribution to the team’s overall win rate. His slightly negative Delta points to the fact that, while Boyd hasn't necessarily been a major factor in the Titans' wins, he has also avoided being a liability during their losses.
Te Maire Martin has had a more varied career with different clubs, and his individual win percentage reflects the ups and downs of playing for teams with differing levels of success. Over the course of four seasons and a total of 93 appearances, Te Maire Martin has accumulated a personal win percentage of 46.23%, slightly below his teams' collective win rate of 49.5%. This negative Delta of -3.28% suggests that, on average, Te Maire Martin has underperformed compared to his teams’ overall success. While this difference is not substantial, it indicates that Te Maire Martin’s teams have often won more games than he personally contributed to, which could be indicative of his involvement in games that the team managed to win despite his individual performance or vice versa.
Breaking down his performance by season, Te Maire Martin’s 2016 and 2017 seasons were marked by a lower win rate relative to his teams, particularly during his time with Penrith in 2017, where he posted just 28.57%, far below the team’s 50% win rate. In contrast, his 2018 season with the Cowboys saw a turnaround, as he posted a 30.43% win percentage, slightly outpacing the team’s 26.32%—a rare instance where Te Maire Martin managed to perform above the team’s poor record.
By 2022, with the Broncos, Te Maire Martin showed more promise, with a 61.54% win rate, outperforming the team's 59.09% record. Unfortunately, this improvement wasn’t sustained in his following years, with the Warriors in 2023 and 2024 posting 44.44% and 37.5% win rates, respectively. His performance in these years again aligned closely with the team’s record, suggesting that while Te Maire Martin is a reliable player, he hasn’t been able to dramatically alter the outcome of matches for his teams.
Te Maire Martin’s weighted average of 46.23% is reflective of a career that has had more struggles than successes in terms of win percentage. While his teams have generally fared better than his individual performance suggests, Te Maire Martin has been consistent enough to not significantly drag down his teams.
Luke Metcalf has had an interesting career trajectory, with two seasons in the NRL so far and a high level of success in his limited appearances. Over his two seasons with the Warriors (2023 and 2024), he has posted an impressive win percentage of 59.9%, well above the team’s average of 48.61%. This positive Delta of 11.31% indicates that Metcalf has consistently outperformed his team, contributing significantly to their success over the course of his appearances. His performance in 2023 with the Warriors stands out, where he posted an 83.33% win rate, well above the team’s 66.67% win percentage that season. This strong showing is a testament to his ability to influence matches and make a tangible impact, especially in tight games.
In 2024, Metcalf’s win percentage was 42.86%, still higher than the Warriors’ 37.5% for the season, though the team’s overall struggles that year meant his individual performance couldn’t carry them to greater success. Nevertheless, Metcalf’s ability to maintain a higher win percentage than the team’s suggests he has a positive impact on the field, even if the team’s overall record is lackluster.
Metcalf’s weighted average of 59.9% highlights him as a player who has outperformed his team and is one of the few players in this analysis to consistently achieve above-average results in terms of win percentage. His performance, especially in key moments, indicates that he has been an important and reliable contributor to the Warriors’ efforts, making him a player to watch as his career progresses.
Chanel Harris-Tavita has experienced a career marked by inconsistency, particularly in his win-loss record with the Warriors. His overall personal win percentage of 31.0% is well below the team’s average of 34.54%, highlighting that, on the whole, he has struggled to achieve wins at a rate comparable to his teammates. His Delta of -3.55% reflects this trend, suggesting that his individual performances have generally been less successful than the team’s collective results.
In 2019, CHT posted a win percentage of just 23%, far below the team’s 36.84%, and his 2020 and 2022 seasons were similarly marked by subpar performances, with win percentages of 30.77% and 23.53%, respectively. These figures indicate that he has been part of a Warriors team that has faced challenges, particularly in the early years of his career. However, there was a slight improvement in 2021 when his win percentage rose to 36%, which was above the team’s 33.33%.
Additionally, if we focus specifically on his last three years, as shown in the additional table, CHT’s performance is far more encouraging. From 2022-2024, his weighted average is 33.3%, which is an improvement over his earlier years, and significantly higher than his earlier win rates. In 2024, CHT posted a 41.18% win percentage, which was above the Warriors' 37.50% team record. This recent improvement highlights that CHT has gradually become a more effective and consistent contributor as he has gained more experience in the NRL. His positive Delta in these last few years suggests that CHT has started to become a more reliable player and his early struggles as a 19-year-old rookie are now behind him.
Erin Clark, like many players on the Gold Coast Titans, has seen fluctuating results in terms of individual and team success. Over his five seasons with the Titans, Clark has posted a personal win percentage of 34.04%, which is very close to the team average of 35.50%. This small negative Delta of -1.46% indicates that, on average, Clark has been a player who performs roughly in line with the team’s overall success, without significantly outshining or underperforming relative to his teammates.
In 2020, Clark posted a 50% win rate, which was well above the team’s 40%, signaling that he contributed positively to the team’s success that season. However, his performance dipped in 2021 and 2022, with win percentages of 36.84% and 19.05%, respectively, both of which were below the team’s average for those years. In 2023, Clark rebounded with a 40% win rate, slightly outperforming the team’s 37.50%. His most recent season in 2024 was notable in that he played every game of the season for the Titans which indicates he is a reliable player from an injury perspective.
Wrighty’s Hot Take
The above general observations were the on the surface ones typed up by Chat GPT. What is my deeper take?
Firstly I can’t stress enough the small sample sizes so there is nothing conclusive to comment on. Instead I am going to use the phrase “there is evidence to suggest”.
So there is evidence to suggest the following:
- Luke Metcalf already is and is going to be a point of difference and an asset in games. I define an asset as being someone who can change a game rather than being a steady eddie or neutral player who won’t let you down. He is off to a fast start and should be regarded as our number one ranked half going into next year.
- Our second ranked half based on his last three years delta only, if you ignore his rookie years, is CHT. This was a surprise finding to me. You may still not want to start him though as we need a goal kicker. And he has shown that can’t be him..
- Our third ranked half is Tanah Boyd based on his career delta. He can goal kick though so maybe that gets him the nod over CHT as there wasn’t much between them.
- Strangely TMM showed up last if we are only judging CHT on his last three years. His delta of -3.55% wasn’t far off the pace which still puts him in the steady Eddie category and as being a neutral player rather than positioning him as a liability. However he of all the players measured is the closest to being a liability.
- Clark not Clarke ie our new addition from the Gold Coast Titans. He will be a steady Eddie player for the Warriors and not score game winning tries or move the needle on our winning percentage based on his career delta. He will be an honest tryer though and his delta is respectable even though very slightly in the negative.
