Post Match Redcliffe Dolphins v NZ Warriors - [Round 8, 2026]

[CWC]

IMO people are looking at teams' current positions on the ladder and retrospectively judging the standard of our performances

It's like when Storm beat us in that Coates game, R2 2024, we ended up being crap on the ladder at the end of the year, does that mean Storm beat a team that was playing like a potential wooden spooner?

Sometimes teams get into a slump or implodes over time, after starting fresh, confident and excited at the start of the year. I think we beat some good teams, the last 3 games were literally against bogey teams to various extent, and the dolphins normally probably would have blown away teams with that mood on anzac day, and they could have beaten the panthers the week before.

The Storm team is clearly in the implosion stage right now and are probably out of ideas after our game, imagine our players watching Fish getting smacked backwards repeatedly and seeing him smiling in defeat at the end, it's pretty hard to get up to 100% mentality after repeating and losing 3-4 weeks in a row.

 

[sydneywarrior92]

I’d have us rated about 4th behind Penrith, Tigers and Rabbitohs on form.

We’ve had a very cushy draw so far having only played two teams in the top 8 and the only win being the famously slow starting roosters in round one.

I think we are capable of being a top 2 team but we’ll know more after the broncos and the panthers games coming up.

We are the 2nd best team when you look at the stats- 2nd best attack, 2nd best points differential and we are also 1st or 2nd in many of the important stats (ie possession, completion, etc). So if you take a holistic view across the whole season so far, we are currently playing like the 2nd best team in the comp.

It is also a bit misleading to look back retrospectively and say we had an easy draw based on the form of the teams we beat. Especially when the consensus about us pre-season was that our start to the season would be rough without Barney and Mets because these teams would be contenders (ie Raiders, Storm, Phins, etc). You could probably make the same argument with the other 3 teams you mentioned as they've all largely beaten teams that are terribly out of form.

Fact is right now, we are outright 2nd as we have 6 wins and the other 4 teams on 12 pts have already had a bye. I could be wrong, but we are the only team in the top 4 this time last year that is again in the top 4. That level of consistency is something we should be celebrating.

 

[roguei]

It is also a bit misleading to look back retrospectively and say we had an easy draw based on the form of the teams we beat. Especially when the consensus about us pre-season was that our start to the season would be rough without Barney and Mets because these teams would be contenders (ie Raiders, Storm, Phins, etc). You could probably make the same argument with the other 3 teams you mentioned as they've all largely beaten teams that are terribly out of form.

I agree that statistcally we are 100% the 2nd team. Both the first and 3rd paragraph has me nodding along.

But I don’t understand what is misleading about looking back retrospectively. If anything, retrospectively evaluating the opposition's strength is more accurate than relying on pre season expectations, because it reflects how good those teams have actually been on the field.

Pre-season predictions are just assumptions. Once we have real results, those should take priority. So dismissing current form on the basis that those assumptions turned out to be wrong doesn’t really make sense to me.

We’ve been excellent statistically, but we may also have benefited from playing teams that haven’t performed as well as expected so far. That doesn’t invalidate our form at all. Both can be totally true. And i don't think the orginal comment was meant to be some slight against the warriors.

So, what feels "misleading" to me is, leaning on current season stats to rate us 2nd, but then reject current season form when evaluating the teams we’ve beaten.

 

[Old Sid]

There's a basic consideration that we helped put the underperforming teams where they are that's being overlooked too. Also, we have not yet had a bye, many around us have had the two free points.

 

[sydneywarrior92]

I agree that statistcally we are 100% the 2nd team. Both the first and 3rd paragraph has me nodding along.

But I don’t understand what is misleading about looking back retrospectively. If anything, retrospectively evaluating the opposition's strength is more accurate than relying on pre season expectations, because it reflects how good those teams have actually been on the field.

Pre-season predictions are just assumptions. Once we have real results, those should take priority. So dismissing current form on the basis that those assumptions turned out to be wrong doesn’t really make sense to me.

We’ve been excellent statistically, but we may also have benefited from playing teams that haven’t performed as well as expected so far. That doesn’t invalidate our form at all. Both can be totally true. And i don't think the orginal comment was meant to be some slight against the warriors.

Because I think it is still too early to make such retrospective judgments.

For all we know, Melbourne, Raiders and Phins might get their shit together and start charging into the 8 and towards the 4 over the coming months. After all, Penrith were in a worse position than Melbourne currently are after round 8 (17th vs 16th) and were one Mudgee miracle away from finishing in the top 4 instead of Brisbane. Not to mention Brisbane coming from outside the 8 halfway through the season to taking our spot in the top 4 in the final week of the comp. Phins also from memory lost their first 4 games last year and made a massive charge up the ladder during the mid-part of the season.

It's also equally possible that either us, rabbits or tigers could fall away over the coming months. After all last year, rabbits and tigers also started well but fell away as they got hit by the injury bug. We also did to a lesser extent. So really what will determine the top 4 isn't the quality of your top team, but that of your 2nd and third string teams.

On that score, I think we have better depth than the rabbits or the tigers. I also think last year's experience of losing Barney and Mets was a blessing in disguise. Yes, it sucked dropping out of the 4 at the final hurdle (we can take out our revenge on parra this week for their part in this). But at the same time, it gave more game time to TSS, Laban, EIT, Leka and Demi that they wouldn't have got otherwise. IMO that is why our pack is so much more dynamic this year and why we are a bona fide top 4 team this year.

 

[FormerlyJamesW]

We’ve been excellent statistically, but we may also have benefited from playing teams that haven’t performed as well as expected so far. That doesn’t invalidate our form at all. Both can be totally true. And i don't think the orginal comment was meant to be some slight against the warriors.

Any arguement could be made, given appropriate context.

Penrith's one lose has come from a team placed in 10th and they were forced to golden point by a team occupying 12th. The best team they've beaten is the Roosters, same as us.

Do these factors diminish their dominance? Lol, no.

Because I think it is still too early to make such retrospective judgments.

Yeah, I agree.

But what else are we going to talk about? Webby's steadied the ship.

We have to argue about SOMETHING, right?

 

[Evil_Mush]

Wasn't there an Injury Ladder (in terms of total games missed by injured first grade players) within the last couple of weeks that we were also second on - which when combined with our positive stats makes everything all the more impressive.

And agreed that maybe us beating the hell out of said underperforming teams caused further underperformance

 

[roguei]

Any arguement could be made, given appropriate context.

Penrith's one lose has come from a team placed in 10th and they were forced to golden point by a team occupying 12th. The best team they've beaten is the Roosters, same as us.

Do these factors diminish their dominance? Lol, no.

Sorry, I don’t understand where you’re getting the “diminish their dominance” thing from. Mentioning opposition strength or close games isn’t about discrediting anyone. it’s just adding context to the overall picture. You can still reach the same conclusion (Penrith are dominant), but with a fuller explanation of why.

You can’t just bring up our stats without also considering the stats of the opposition we’ve beaten. It’s not about diminishing anyone, it’s about seeing the full picture.

Because I think it is still too early to make such retrospective judgments.

For all we know, Melbourne, Raiders and Phins might get their shit together and start charging into the 8 and towards the 4 over the coming months. After all, Penrith were in a worse position than Melbourne currently are after round 8 (17th vs 16th) and were one Mudgee miracle away from finishing in the top 4 instead of Brisbane. Not to mention Brisbane coming from outside the 8 halfway through the season to taking our spot in the top 4 in the final week of the comp. Phins also from memory lost their first 4 games last year and made a massive charge up the ladder during the mid-part of the season.

It's also equally possible that either us, rabbits or tigers could fall away over the coming months. After all last year, rabbits and tigers also started well but fell away as they got hit by the injury bug. We also did to a lesser extent. So really what will determine the top 4 isn't the quality of your top team, but that of your 2nd and third string teams.

On that score, I think we have better depth than the rabbits or the tigers. I also think last year's experience of losing Barney and Mets was a blessing in disguise. Yes, it sucked dropping out of the 4 at the final hurdle (we can take out our revenge on parra this week for their part in this). But at the same time, it gave more game time to TSS, Laban, EIT, Leka and Demi that they wouldn't have got otherwise. IMO that is why our pack is so much more dynamic this year and why we are a bona fide top 4 team this year.

Yeah, it’s early, but that cuts both ways. Current ladder/stats are also early reads.
I’m not locking anything in. I just think actual form so far is more useful than pre season expectations. If teams like Melbourne or the Raiders turn it around, then our wins look better with time too. Just like the five other teams who’ve beaten them. Same logic we’re using to say the Warriors look top 2 right now. It’s all provisional.

Overall i'm not trying to piss on the warriors being 2nd. Surprisingly i think we deserve to be 2nd. But the selective use of some stats while dismissing others just feels off to me.

 

[sydneywarrior92]

Sorry, I don’t understand where you’re getting the “diminish their dominance” thing from. Mentioning opposition strength or close games isn’t about discrediting anyone. it’s just adding context to the overall picture. You can still reach the same conclusion (Penrith are dominant), but with a fuller explanation of why.

You can’t just bring up our stats without also considering the stats of the opposition we’ve beaten. It’s not about diminishing anyone, it’s about seeing the full picture.



Yeah, it’s early, but that cuts both ways. Current ladder/stats are also early reads.
I’m not locking anything in. I just think actual form so far is more useful than pre season expectations. If teams like Melbourne or the Raiders turn it around, then our wins look better with time too. Just like the five other teams who’ve beaten them. Same logic we’re using to say the Warriors look top 2 right now. It’s all provisional.

Overall i'm not trying to piss on the warriors being 2nd. Surprisingly i think we deserve to be 2nd. But the selective use of some stats while dismissing others just feels off to me.

I agree with that. I don't think it contradicts what I am trying to say. Overall it is too early to say anything definitive. But at this stage, we are the 2nd best team.

 

[CWC]

Any arguement could be made, given appropriate context.

Penrith's one lose has come from a team placed in 10th and they were forced to golden point by a team occupying 12th. The best team they've beaten is the Roosters, same as us.

Do these factors diminish their dominance? Lol, no.



Yeah, I agree.

But what else are we going to talk about? Webby's steadied the ship.

We have to argue about SOMETHING, right?

We could go reverse logic and say the sharks should really be on top of the table with Penrith cuz they smashed us and we're 2nd, and raiders beat South, South beat tigers, tigers beat raiders, meaning raiders belong to the top 4.

And again the sharks beat the raiders and us thus they should be top with penrith again

 

[FormerlyJamesW]

Sorry, I don’t understand where you’re getting the “diminish their dominance” thing from. Mentioning opposition strength or close games isn’t about discrediting anyone. it’s just adding context to the overall picture. You can still reach the same conclusion (Penrith are dominant), but with a fuller explanation of why.

Yeah, my bad. I probably tried to be too clever with my point.

I agree that comparing opposition team statistics helps with the overall picture. I just tend to find it too open to interpretation at the this point of the season. That Penrith/Dogs game represents one eighth of their seasons performance; which is a significant chunk of a small amount of data. The performance statistics of that night are also very outside the 'averages' of the other games they've played.

To use your metaphor of painting a picture; you've only got a third of the paint colors and one of them has some dog poo mixed in with it.

I'm not trying to sway you, mate. We all look at the data differently and that's all good.

 

[Cces]

Wasn't there an Injury Ladder (in terms of total games missed by injured first grade players) within the last couple of weeks that we were also second on

While based on raw data this is true, TMM, Linnane & Gannon contribute close to 20 weeks of injuries between them but would've only been in playing 17's a handful of times if actually fit.
We've been dealt our share but it'd be a hard case to push that our NRL side has been one of the most directly effected due to injury