Post Match NZ Warriors v Cronulla Sharks - [Round 5, 2026]

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Wrighty's Analysis

This week I don't have a read on why we lost this game. The "run of the game" was 50/50 we had just as much momentum as they did but somehow they scored tons more points than us.

What I want to talk about this week is the concept of identifying poor performances from individuals as the reason for a loss in a rugby league game.

We are going to take a step back to a sport I am an expert in: Cricket.

On sports forums when we discussed cricket it was all about individuals. Cricket is a game of individuals competing as teams. It is more an individual sport than it is a team sport. However paradoxically the way to succeed individually in cricket is to approach it as a team sport and do what is best for the team in the way you bat and bowl. Selfish batsman in cricket usually don't do well or reach their potential.

When you lose in cricket it is because key individuals have failed and as long as it is not a pattern you shrug and move on. In batting in particular players at most will come off 40% of the time and failing to execute is common place. Also in cricket you can be world champions and have passengers in the team who are poor players. When we won the test championship we had several team members who were passengers. The way to win in cricket is for your top players to be better than their top players rather than having a team effort where all eleven pitch in and perform.

Turning now to the game this weekend it is clear that two players had Barry Crockers. Specifically CNK and RTS were unusually bad even by their standards. To the point you can say that had the two of them played much better that might have changed the result. However my overall thesis I am submitting is that someone, if Cricket is to be learned from, in your starting 13 is going to have a Crocker in every match. There is always going to be one or two players who didn't sleep well, are not in the right head space, or are not good players and with hindsight should not have been selected and should be fired into the sun. No sporting team exists where every player in it is the perfect selection. There are going to be some lucky people in every team in the NRL or in international cricket at the fringes of the team. Usually in cricket these are long established players whose reputation is getting them picked.

What I am getting at is that you need to win in rugby league warts and all. You need to execute and get it done, get the victory across the line notwithstanding that each week you will have some passengers; or players who are playing so poorly they are liabilities out there. Once those players put up 5 or 6 poor performances as a pattern sure you can talk about selections and people being dropped. But each week someone is going to do something daft like Pompey getting himself sent to the sin bin. There will be high points each week from an individual execution perspective (such as Dallin's intercept try) and low points such as CNK's continuous biting on decoy runs all night long.

Learning from cricket you need your best players to be consistent then you will win. And you need to apply constant pressure with the ball rather than trying to bowl wicket taking deliveries.

And a key insight for any team sport is that when you have elite players in your team who are consistently doing well the lesser players stop trying to over achieve and focus on doing a role or just doing their own job well. Then the team starts to hum.

Therefore I don't think we did lose due to the performance of those two having Barry Crockers.

We were not applying constant pressure with our attack during the game and instead tried to force tries from every set once we fell behind. We did not play with composure.
Secondly our best players did not out play theirs. Who are our best players?
On form our best players are
1) Tannah Boyd. Had he kicked over even one more conversion earlier we would have had less score board pressure at half time even though the kicks were extremely hard. Secondly he became nullified by his combination with Metcalf not working. Whenever they tried to work together it failed.
2) Luke Metcalf next year will be the highest priced player in the team. Starting right now he needs to be one of our best each week. Even though I said in cricket you can have passengers in the team and win - those passengers need to be the fringe players. Your star players must turn up and have a big impact on the game. He didn't turn up.
3) JFH, Ford and Clarke. Failed to get us ascendency in the forwards even though they have in previous games. No go forward makes it very difficult for Metcalf. I am sitting here pointing fingers at metcalf but much of his ineffectiveness has to be pointed back at our lack of metres per set. Very low this game. How many times did we march our way to the 60 metre line, I didn't count any occasions. Did we miss CNK starting our sets well from fullback?

My major point is that every game one or two players are going to have a poor game. There is a salary cap and not everyone in your starting 13 will either be good or be good in that particular game. The Warriors need to execute and get it done notwithstanding set backs from people missing assignments. We need to approach it is a team sport and look for team solutions the whole team can implement as that will lead to sustainable success.
For example it is probably true that our ruck control was weak in the first half making it hard for CNK and others to get organised in defence.
And my second point is that our best players need to be better than their best. Last week we did not nullify Adam Doueihi and nullifying their best players is part of ensuring our best are the best.
Let's hope we go better next week and even if we don't we will finish Bluey's round with a record of 3 and 3 and still be in hunt and amongst it. A long way to go in this season.
 
Laban looks like he needs a spell out of the starting side, we miss Capewells effort plays. Roger should be given a respectful warning that if he drops another stinker it’s AKPs turn. Long season, we’ve shown we can play well but feels like clockwork with us, whenever we look really good and the media start saying as much, we turn to custard
Yeah I think the whole team needs to be rotated better to achieve maximum output for the duration of the season.

Our whole body of players needs to be drawn on from. So the fringe players need to be developed on an ongoing basis to be first grade ready.

After these five rounds and chewing on our last two games. I'm ok with a sixty percent win rate thus far.
 
I don’t know if you can afford to keep Taine there. The starts of our sets have lost all momentum. He gets dominated and driven back on the kick return, making plays 2 and 3 much more difficult. He brings a lot of good things, but unless you are dominant and he can dish off the kick return to a winger it sets things back
Taine was good but sometimes you just need hard running to get the opposition on the back foot we definitely miss the back three making yardage when the fullback gets owned, CNK just sucks at center, I've never liked the idea of him moving to centre
 
TBF on hindsight Webby might have messed up here and there but I prefer this version than sticking with the same losing formula and expect different results of past years, bro is taking risks and the first 3 rounds paid off the last 2 it didn’t, and he’ll be aware enough to make his next move, he’s not saying “xyz is my 7/1 etc” once this year

Like he literally did what a lot of us asked and we are the ones having eggs on our faces while still screaming at him “why did you do what I wanted you to do!!!!!” 😂
 
I was ranting about that to my wife. You know things are fucked up when I'm ranting about league to my wife. "You don't understand, it is unforgivable"

"Go to bed, you're drunk"

Both things are true.

(But seriously, it is the most disgusting thing I've seen from the team in the past few years)
You drunk post more coherently than a lot of sober people on here. 👍
 
Taine was good but sometimes you just need hard running to get the opposition on the back foot we definitely miss the back three making yardage when the fullback gets owned, CNK just sucks at center, I've never liked the idea of him moving to centre
Taine could always use his brains over his brawn-deficiency. A sneaky chip and chase here and there can help make the rush defence second guess themselves. Ben Barba type plays too. You know just do a Reecey and light the afterburners.
 
Has anyone else noticed that the team that dominates the first two exchanges of the match wins more often than not? I watched us struggle to get to our 40 on our first possession of the match and the Sharks made it to almost our 40 on their first set. I thought then that it was going to be a long afternoon for Warriors fans.

Ford , Egan, TSS, and Demi earned their money last night I thought. They all worked hard.
Fish had his moments but not enough of them
But 4 forwards can't win a match on their own. I'm so looking forward to Baney and Capewell being fit. We we're off the pace up front. Not by much but enough. The experience those two bring is huge for the cohesion of the pack.

And the backs sadly were the backs. Well done Dallin for a hat trick. But apart from that I wasn't impressed. Shuffling them around doesn't make them better
 
To preface what im going to say, i have always thought CHT is our best six. And that swapping out spine players is not the same as swapping out any other position. So my by far prefered would be boyd or metcalf at seven with cht at 6. The diffrence between metcalf and boyd at seven is a lot smaller than the difference between CHT at 6 and anyone else. Can you guess what player is a constant across the warriors being a top 4 team? CHT at 6. Not metcalf, not boyd.

But i think a lot of people have the tail wagging the dog here. Offesnively we will always have some issues around chemistry for a new six, seven. Fuck, evans and walker looked awful against us and still look a bit rusty now, when they had a whole pre-season togther. We are still able to score a good number of points.

The issue is the defense. We aggreviated the fuck out of teams with it and scored some tries because we built up that preasure. We had
XWon GamesLost Games
Completion Rate> 80%< 80%
Missed Tackles11 Less than the oppsoing teams48 More than the opposing teams
Trys conceded on the right side5 (1.66 avg)7 (3.5 avg)
Trys conceded on the left side1 (0.33 avg)5 (2.5 avg)
Avg Possession55.7%50%

All of the above can be fixed without having to fix our clunky halves. Boyd and CHT are going to have a awful game as well if we cannot fix these glearing issues. But just for interest sake, as i honestly think that if we cannot wrestle back those above things we lose reguardless of spine. Here are some key stat changes between the won and lost games. I.e +50% means 50% more on avarage than the won game number.
StatRaw ChangePossession-Adjusted Change
Errors+54%+74%
Bomb Kicks-50%-44%
Grubber kicks+50%+68%
Handling errors+19%+32%
Post-contact metres-22%-13%
Tackle breaks-36.7%-29.5%
Cross-field kicks+9%+22%
Now These are interesting because i have no idea why our kicking game has changed. Boyd has the best bomb out of all of our halves, so it's a shame it isn't being used. Maybe there has been some lost trust in the wingers being able to compete under the high ball? Maybe we've just not been in good feild position for those types of kicks. But for some reason we love to grubber it now? But i think when the pack is generating post-contact metres (-13%) and tackle breaks (-29.5%), you get quick PTBs in good field position. That's when bombs work. your kicking from inside the opposition 40. When your pack is going backwards, you're kicking from your own half, and a grubber to the corner becomes the safer option. The kicking shift might not be a coaching choice, it might be a symptom of worse field position.

On the flip side here are the avg stat difference between the teams we won against and the teams we lost against. Where +50% errors means the teams we lost against had 50% more errors on avg than the teams we won against.
StatRaw (Wars) Win AvgRaw (Wars) loss AvgRawNorm
Line breaks4.77.5+61%+43%
Kick metres427628+47%+30%
Bomb kicks56.5+30%+16%
Missed tackles36.323-37%-30%
Offloads10.78.5-20%-29%
Errors13.313-3%-14%
Below are pretty much the same for every team we are against----
Tackle breaks33.340+20%+6%
Run metres15171732+14%+1%
Receipts373414+11%-2%
To add to above but as indvidual palyers:
The forward pack stopped generating penetration. Ford (-62% tackle breaks), JFH (0 offloads), Pompey (-82% tackle breaks)
The kicking strategy shifted from bombs (-44%) to grubbers (+68%)


So in conculsion, for our game plan to work we need to smother the other team. Boyd and our backs are not the types that can win when we are not smothering them. We need to fix a 74% increase in errors, a forward pack generating 26% less metres, and a completion rate under 80%. Fix those and whoever is at 7 — Boyd or Metcalf — will look a lot better too. Put CHT back behind a broken pack making 13 errors a game and we still lose. Bit of a ramble but hopfully the charts make it easier to read.
 
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Imo we should have persevered with Ali
Seemed to be improving each game
Ali needs to trim down.
In the words of the immortal prophet J.Muss - To much weights. Not enough speed work. He looks huge. There was a shot in Cup highlights and I couldn't tell the difference between him & RTV. They looked the same size lol.

Then he gets a intercept and gasses it to the tryline. Ok, Maybe I'll use another quote. He looked pretty fast lol. He def needs to at least work on his lateral movement. Gets caught out & moves like a truck to try and cover the gap lol.
 
Defense feed back into attack, there is a difference between oh we are fudged after dropping a ball to we can defend this boys

The fact Dallin got a hat trick and we got 22 with a heap of errors and mistackles means the sharks defense wasn’t good and our D destroyed ourselves
 
We need to fix a 74% increase in errors, a forward pack generating 26% less metres, and a completion rate under 80%. Fix those and whoever is at 7 — Boyd or Metcalf — will look a lot better too.

This is the million dollar question, though.

What is causing it?

Unsustainable play?
Change of personale?
Someone sleep with someone else's Mrs?
 
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So kicking metres Boyd 578m Luke 34m receipts 66 vs 26 I think they’re working towards Boyd as dominant half

Shame about the health and the defense

Previous week Luke had 200m kicking and 40 receipts
 
This is the million dollar question, though.

What is causing it?

Unsustainable play?
Change of personale?
Someone sleep with someone else's Mrs?
I mean you can read over the stats if you'd like but:
CNK has had a 190% increase in errors since moving onto center.
Running meters for our forwards have changed
PlayerWin m/minLoss m/minChange
Ford2.701.90-29.6%
JFH3.032.58-14.9%
Clark2.411.98-17.6%

But it's a death sprail.
Errors (8.3 to 13/game), fewer completed sets, less possession (55.7% → 50%), forwards spend more time defending, forwards fatigued when they do carry, less go-forward (Ford -30%, JFH -15%), worse field position, can't bomb from your own half (bombs -44%), forced to grubber instead (+68%), less territorial pressure, opposition has easier sets, more defending, more fatigue, more errors.

What im trying to get at is that its a sysmatic issue that starts at error managment.

PlayerWins errors/80minLoss errors/80min
CNK (wins at fullback, losses at center)0.541.57
DWZ1.672.50
RTS1.002.00
Ford0.711.80
Boyd0.671.50
MetcalfN/A1.03
CHT0.0N/A
 
This is the million dollar question, though.

What is causing it?

Unsustainable play?
Change of personale?
Someone sleep with someone else's Mrs?
I'm agreeable with unsustainable play. I think Newcastle game we looked gassed. And I speculate that we are coming into games four and five pre gassed.

Change of personnel? Might be.

Someone with someone elses Mrs? Could be but could also be loss of trust and egos in play.
 
How good were the all blacks of late? That us vs them stuff is absolutely tiresome. Springboks, France, England and Ireland have all had the better of us for some time.
Un no they haven’t?
Springboks yes they are on a massive run at the moment with 7 out of the last 10.
France have won 3 out of the last 10, we have won the last 3 in a row
England have won 2 out of the last 10
Ireland 4 out of the last 10 and have lost the last 3 against us.
The anecdote about HB family is an outlier, most friends and family I have there watch both
 
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This is the million dollar question, though.

What is causing it?

Unsustainable play?
Change of personale?
Someone sleep with someone else's Mrs?
To follow up with what i posted just before, if you wanted some cure all or scape goat. Then i guess it'd be to drop anyone who is six for CHT, and move CNK back to fullback or the bench. Our error rate to score currenly has a insane correlation value of `-0.981`. So weirdly with that change we should save 1.5 errors and therefore gain +9 points per game.
You can plug in Points = -4.56 × Errors + 77.7 and it gets within 1 of every game we've played this year.
 
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Cronulla
Sharks Sharks
36 - 22
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5.4
NZ
Team Ave Team Average
Tanner Stowers-Smith
7.3
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Highest Best Performance
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad
2.7
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Taine Tuaupiki 1
6.2 (30)
Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 2
7.0 (30)
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 3
2.7 (30)
Adam Pompey 4
Left Centre
4.3 (30)
Roger Tuivasa-Sheck 5
3.7 (30)
Luke Metcalf 6
Five-Eighth
3.4 (30)
Tanah Boyd 7
Halfback
5.8 (30)
James Fisher-Harris 8
Right Prop Captain
6.1 (30)
Wayde Egan 9
5.8 (30)
Jackson Ford 10
Left Prop
6.2 (30)
Leka Halasima 11
Right Second Row
5.3 (30)
Jacob Laban 12
Left Second Row
4.6 (30)
Erin Clark 13
Lock
6.4 (30)
Sam Healey 14
Interchange
5.5 (30)
Marata Niukore 15
Interchange
4.6 (30)
Demitric Vaimauga 16
6.0 (30)
Tanner Stowers-Smith 17
7.3 (30)
Chanel Harris-Tavita 18
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5.7 (19)
Eddie Ieremia-Toeava 20
Interchange DNP
5.8 (19)
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Andrew Webster
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