NRL NRL Expansion

[Fonzie]

Fonzie Ive written DIV level IPB's and participated in JIRO's specificaly for PNG. Was operational in APAC PNG 2018, and still not 100% on the country. If who ever you are talking to thinks this is a good idea, they are a rubbish analyst.

The people I’ve spoken to aren’t military / ops people, they are current / former diplomats and geopol analysts (and in some cases, lifelong mates of mine). They will have had access to military and security briefings. I’ve been having these conversations for more than a decade.

I don’t doubt your experience for a minute though mate. What specifically are you concerned about? We know we can send pro teams in securely on a fifo basis, we’ve been doing that for years.

Living there raises a different set of issues, but there are thousands of aussies living there now. DFAT has hundreds of Aussie workers and their partners living in moresby in a compound. Why couldn’t we adopt that model?

Having stayed there I know that once you leave the compound you need high sit awareness and potentially a security detail, although we travelled for weeks in moresby, the highlands and the north coast with no weapons. There’s no doubt life would be relatively restrictive, but some players would go for the same reason mining workers go - hardship $$, and adventure.

The other point is that I expect the plan is to make this an nrl team fed by pacific players, not white aussies. The Hunters, the Silktails and a (to be established) pacific academy will funnel players into the png pathway system, which will include qld based comps. That would be topped up with 3/4 adventurous aussies chasing a bag.

 

[Matiunz]

Here are my (reasonably well informed) thoughts on a png team:

View: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5sVIBn1NdwcDzleSkwd1uV?si=NdF98Pj6SRCc1hI2PZ4_WQ

lol should have looked at the date, I remember listening to it last year when the news first broke and you made it sound much more palpable than what others were saying. Guess it’s pretty much a wait and see scenario now- hope it’s successful

 

[MrFrankWhite]

Sorry about my ignorance, but could you please advise what you mean by JIROs? Google tells me you were participating in preparing sushi.

kinda slang for a joint intel recce. Which fed into a larger JIPOE which is an intel product down when all 3 branches are going in.

 

[MrFrankWhite]

The people I’ve spoken to aren’t military / ops people, they are current / former diplomats and geopol analysts (and in some cases, lifelong mates of mine). They will have had access to military and security briefings. I’ve been having these conversations for more than a decade.

I don’t doubt your experience for a minute though mate. What specifically are you concerned about? We know we can send pro teams in securely on a fifo basis, we’ve been doing that for years.

Living there raises a different set of issues, but there are thousands of aussies living there now. DFAT has hundreds of Aussie workers and their partners living in moresby in a compound. Why couldn’t we adopt that model?

Having stayed there I know that once you leave the compound you need high sit awareness and potentially a security detail, although we travelled for weeks in moresby, the highlands and the north coast with no weapons. There’s no doubt life would be relatively restrictive, but some players would go for the same reason mining workers go - hardship $$, and adventure.

The other point is that I expect the plan is to make this an nrl team fed by pacific players, not white aussies. The Hunters, the Silktails and a (to be established) pacific academy will funnel players into the png pathway system, which will include qld based comps. That would be topped up with 3/4 adventurous aussies chasing a bag.

My issue is these people are the ones who said China was going to invade Hk. Wrong.

They said Afghan could stand on its own. Wrong. They said Ukraine would win, and that Israel is in the right.

Always look for the counter factual position rather than yes men churning out what the institution wants.

The problem with PNG is, crime, corruption, drugs, foreign espionage. And now Australian intelligence community is dropping half a billion dollars into that, under the guise of the NRL.

This smells suspiciously like an intelligence led operation. Ask your buddies what that means and the implications of such.

 

[jonesy101]

The people I’ve spoken to aren’t military / ops people, they are current / former diplomats and geopol analysts (and in some cases, lifelong mates of mine). They will have had access to military and security briefings. I’ve been having these conversations for more than a decade.

I don’t doubt your experience for a minute though mate. What specifically are you concerned about? We know we can send pro teams in securely on a fifo basis, we’ve been doing that for years.

Living there raises a different set of issues, but there are thousands of aussies living there now. DFAT has hundreds of Aussie workers and their partners living in moresby in a compound. Why couldn’t we adopt that model?

Having stayed there I know that once you leave the compound you need high sit awareness and potentially a security detail, although we travelled for weeks in moresby, the highlands and the north coast with no weapons. There’s no doubt life would be relatively restrictive, but some players would go for the same reason mining workers go - hardship $$, and adventure.

The other point is that I expect the plan is to make this an nrl team fed by pacific players, not white aussies. The Hunters, the Silktails and a (to be established) pacific academy will funnel players into the png pathway system, which will include qld based comps. That would be topped up with 3/4 adventurous aussies chasing a bag.

I've always wondered what its like not so much in the villages but the large population areas. Like for example in Port Moresby if you were in the precinct where the hotels, government offices etc are could you walk around there unaided?

 

[Fonzie]

I've always wondered what it’s like not so much in the villages but the large population areas. Like for example in Port Moresby if you were in the precinct where the hotels, government offices etc are could you walk around there unaided?

I haven’t been there for a decade but when we were there we went unaided to restaurants, sports events and bars. We were very situationally aware though and at night did not stop at red lights or walk anywhere other than from our vehicle straight into the venue. We also chose venues based on local intel on what was safe.

 

[sup42]

Horrendous call.

Nobody wants to live in PNG, they will attract zero players. And their pathways currently aren't good enough to even produce a half decent QLDcup team.

Where there is a will there is a way.

Given this is basically a cold war investment to protect Australian borders and keep their sticky fingers in PNGS vast mineral wealth, the money will solve most of the issues including attracting players.

There is nothing to stop the NRL giving a png franchise salary cap exemptions and the Aus Govt to offer special tax exemptions to players willing to move to base themselves in PNG.

The Sky is the limit.

One Nuclear sub cost ten to twenty billion dollars. Running those suckers cost fifty million per year.

My guess is that the Australian Govt will slush fund this thing much deeper than this sixty million a year initial deal to keep their interests safe from China.

600 million is pretty much a really nice Sunday lunch in the world of geopolitics. It’s nothing.

IMO, the issue of attracting players is somewhat exaggerated. With incentives and/or tax breaks etc….. it won’t be hard to attract a very good, young (no family) journeyman or someone at the end of their career that’s willing to take the risk to set himself up. Especially if he’s desperate for an opportunity.

People literally go to war willingly, for a fraction of that money.

The potential payoff is enormous. A relatively large population, given the right facilities and training. Churning out players will be massive for the game.

Yep, PNG literally wrote to book on a pacific haven for people looking to take risks from the first world and make money in a dangerous country.

There are thousands of people with no toughness about them trying it on in
PNG and have been for decades.

My Uncle made his millions there in the 1970's. He stayed there making coin for two decades, lots of people have these stories.

As for agreeing for better pay in high risk countries, just Frank what that is about and the opportunities if you are good at your profession and looking for coin.

 

[Five&Last]

Yes I’m surprised by that. The plan seems to be to make the png players salary tax free so they effectively pay 45% more than Aussie clubs (at the top bracket)

I still don’t think the tax free income offsets having to live in PNG.

They’re going to have to provide a massive salary cap dispensation for them to even be remotely competitive. And then you’ll have other teams objecting to that.

 

[sup42]

My issue is these people are the ones who said China was going to invade Hk. Wrong.

They said Afghan could stand on its own. Wrong. They said Ukraine would win, and that Israel is in the right.

Always look for the counter factual position rather than yes men churning out what the institution wants.

The problem with PNG is, crime, corruption, drugs, foreign espionage. And now Australian intelligence community is dropping half a billion dollars into that, under the guise of the NRL.

This smells suspiciously like an intelligence led operation. Ask your buddies what that means and the implications of such.

NRL sways C.I.A. Pacific Bureau chiefs to become PNG fans....you have to laugh but there is a reason piss Ant NZ is part of the five Eyes, the same reason China spoke out about poking their eyes out.

And no we are not part of the spy alliance because we breed experts in espionage, it is because we are the last stop before the South pole and therefore the Southern boundary peg of a communication network. We are one of the long strands that pins the Spiders web to the ceiling.

 

[MrFrankWhite]

I have no issue with pacific nations becoming stakeholders. But there’s so many grey areas especially with PNG. My immediate concern would be doping, organised crime, match fixing. And that’s the low level stuff

 

[Brightman]

At the end of the day the Pacific islands nations will learn to play the western governments as the middle eastern countries are doing now and no rugby league franchise can stand in the way..

 

[Playdaball]

PNG ... Welcome to the NRL!

The Tigers may have some competition for the spoon now?

 

[sup42]

I still don’t think the tax free income offsets having to live in PNG.

They’re going to have to provide a massive salary cap dispensation for them to even be remotely competitive. And then you’ll have other teams objecting to that.

I think this is much bigger than you realise.

This about national security and the five eyes. It is about the battle with China for the Pacific and stopping the Chinese Empire from expanding its borders into territory that the United States considers its waters.

NZ and Australia are Vasal states of the U.S. I know you know this, but framing it in terms of Empire is how folk should understand why PNG are able to ask the Australian Govt for an NRL team, rather than ask the NRL for the umpteenth time to consider a bid after multiple failed requests to the NRL for this deal which magically now is being done at high speed backed by the Country Australia, and not the piss ant little sporting organization the National Rugby League.

This is bigger than any concern or hurdle you could dream up.

Salary cap you say? Well the Govt of Australia has just offered its first small beads for blankets funding in the first round starting north of half a billion dollars to give PNG an NRL team, and the Australian Govt has recruited NRL head quarters to ensure they understand their patriotic duty here. There is no way that an arbitrary minor detail like a sporting competitions salary cap is going to stand in the way of the joint collusion between the might of Canberra and a small organisation like the NRL that has quirky little rules like Salary caps.

This is a round one of negotiations, their lowest offer. PNG if they were smart and not so desperate should counter with a request for one billion minimum over ten years on this deal. And even then one billion over ten years is chicken feed compared to what Australia would pay to not have China camped a short boat ride north of her border.

Any little quibble you could dream of, like security issues, or NRL clubs complaining about Salary caps are so small in the theater that is being played out in as to make them a nonsense.

Mate the PNG Army would kill to be deployed around an NRL compound and provide armed escorts for players and players families alike, hell they would be fighting over rostered duties to provide protection for NRL staff.

Rugby league is a religion there like no other country in the world, which is why...they are prepared to turn down hundreds of Billions of Chinese Yuan
for a paltry six hundred million Australian dollars.

As Fonzie stated in the opener to his pod, this is a very unique situation with variables that the average NRL fan has no idea about.

And as he kept saying through the pod, any objection you might dream up means nothing.

Mate...if the salary cap and moaning Australian clubs made an issue, this deal is so important that the Australian Govt would help find ways to make the cap concerns irrelevant.

The NRL already grants the Roosters a cap less system because they have real estate billion dollar Tycoon behind them, and the Rooster aren't even defending Australian interests in the south Pacific.

Nick Politis and his Sombrero Cap is backed by 2.4 billion. That is how cheaply the NRL are bought off to turn a blind eye.

PNG is worth a twenty times that annually, that is in US dollars, not Nick Politis Australian Pesos.

Translation, at present the NRLs biggest private franchise backer is worth twenty times less than a PNG Govt NRL backed consortium's annual turn over, we are therefore talking about a Backer of an NRL franchise that deals in trillions making it a monster greater in economic terms than the entire competition.


I just wish I was fly on the wall when the first NRL CEO complains and then gets a summons from the Australian Govt to come to Canberra and meet with the cabinet and the security and intelligence services, I can't wait till that prick gets told it is his patriotic duty to STFU.

Do you honestly think that an NRL club objecting to PNGs special treatment is a problem for a Govt that is fighting China publicly? (China has declared Australia as an enemy in the media and threatened them recently).

Salary cap issues and Players not wanting to go to PNG are potatoes so tiny you can't even call them small potatoes in the scale of this move.

We are watching history in the making, this is the Pacifics equivalent in cold war terms of the Berlin wall mate. Same dynamic, super power builds belts and braces across the Pacific to surround Australia, now trying to build a wall right next to Australian territory.

Wake up people. This is happening. PNG will be a proxy Australian Govt sponsored super franchise with an open cheque book and in relative
NRL terms unlimited resources to succeed.

More importantly, PNG will bring eleven million fanatical supporters to the NRL in one foul swoop.

Nothing short of China collapsing is going to stop this train.

 

[Brightman]

This about national security and the five eyes. It is about the battle with China for the Pacific and stopping the Chinese Empire from expanding its borders into territory that the United States considers its waters.

How many countries have china invaded? Yet the NRL have had plans to play exhibition games in China.

Oh the hypocrisy..

Nothing short of China collapsing is going to stop this train.

New Silk road won't collapse China, neither will the US..

 

[Tohu’s_Knees]

I still don’t think the tax free income offsets having to live in PNG.

They’re going to have to provide a massive salary cap dispensation for them to even be remotely competitive. And then you’ll have other teams objecting to that.

Bro, people do things and live in way worse conditions for a fraction of an NRL salary.
As I stated in a previous post, i think problems recruiting are exaggerated. With the right incentives and targeting the right individuals. It’ll be difficult no doubt.

Are they ever going to get a player who can make over 850k in Australia or NZ who also has a family? Unlikely.

But think about how many genuinely good players there are on 700k. 45% of that is 315k. That’s a lot of money. (Assuming they’re gonna give tax breaks or whatever). They’re pretty much on a million. (Equivalent to playing in Australia).

Dylan Walker is supposedly on 700k. How much you reckon Mitch Barnett is on? I doubt it’s that much, maybe.

How many guys 25-32 get paid 500k in Australia, PNG offers them 800k and they don’t have to pay tax on it (equivalent to 1.16 million). They’ve essentially more than doubled their salary.

How many guys in Super league want to come back and they’re gonna pay them 45% more…….

Again, assuming they’re gonna give tax breaks or whatever.
You’re telling me no one will take it? I doubt that. I doubt that very much. But I guess we’ll see.

 

[Falcon]

I would have preferred a sizeable investment into the Q Cup side, upgrading the Port Morseby facilities and infrastructure to enable it to host top tier Rugby League on a consistent basis.
This would be a precursor of any official entry to the NRL with a lead time of 2028 - 2030 launch.
Without knowing all the facts and final decisions, It smells of a high stakes poker match and the Aus Govt has gone all in on the first hand and could walk away if it goes bust.

 

[Akkerz]

Lets be brutally frank and honest here, no underhanded PNG outfit could have anywhere near the match fixing influence of the Australian Bunker system.

That's something I can agree on. Pleased that PNG might get some financial assistance out of this but I doubt it will make NRL a stronger comp.

 

[Victor_Radley's_Scrotum]

What does Ja Rule think about all of this? Where is Ja!?

 

[jonesy101]

With the suggestions that established players from Australia would jump at the chance to earn extra coin its really hard to know. Just had to see the effects on the Warriors during the time they were living in compound like conditions. Also noteworthy are the troubles the Raiders have with recruitment due to their location and that's not leaving Australia. The PNG team will need a good mix of established Australian players at least for the first few years just to stay competitive. The middling success of the Hunters in the QLD Morons cup shows that. And if it means significant salary cap exemptions to do so then that has huge ramifications on the distribution of talent across the competition, particularly for the non-glamor clubs that also have to compete for the available signatures.

This all in approach is a huge risk. A Cairns based team which had good PNG pathways and played some of their games in Port Moresby would be more realistic at this stage wouldn't it? They could frame the catchment area as Far North Queensl...d, Torres Strait Islands and PNG and call themselves by the name of the club like the Dolphins have.

 

[Five&Last]

Bro, people do things and live in way worse conditions for a fraction of an NRL salary.
As I stated in a previous post, i think problems recruiting are exaggerated. With the right incentives and targeting the right individuals. It’ll be difficult no doubt.

Are they ever going to get a player who can make over 850k in Australia or NZ who also has a family? Unlikely.

But think about how many genuinely good players there are on 700k. 45% of that is 315k. That’s a lot of money. (Assuming they’re gonna give tax breaks or whatever). They’re pretty much on a million. (Equivalent to playing in Australia).

Dylan Walker is supposedly on 700k. How much you reckon Mitch Barnett is on? I doubt it’s that much, maybe.

How many guys 25-32 get paid 500k in Australia, PNG offers them 800k and they don’t have to pay tax on it (equivalent to 1.16 million). They’ve essentially more than doubled their salary.

How many guys in Super league want to come back and they’re gonna pay them 45% more…….

Again, assuming they’re gonna give tax breaks or whatever.
You’re telling me no one will take it? I doubt that. I doubt that very much. But I guess we’ll see.

Hard disagree with that.

Warriors couldn’t even get elite players to move to NZ for a 300k pay rise.

These aren’t random tradies going off to work in the mines. These are league players who live a pretty well off lifestyle already.

If tax exemption is the only incentive I guarantee they don’t finish higher than the spoon in their first 8 years.