Cutting through the politics on both sides, it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that Labour would likely have changed or stopped the project as well if they’d stayed in Government. The budget had blown out from
$775 million to nearly $4 billion, with KiwiRail itself warning ministers that costs could continue to rise.
By November 2023, Treasury was openly flagging major risks. They noted the project’s NPV was significantly negative, meaning the financial case had effectively collapsed. Treasury advised ministers to
seriously consider alternative options, because the project was no longer commercially viable without massive Crown support. In plain terms, Treasury was not supporting the idea of continuing with the project in its existing form.
Labour repeatedly criticised KiwiRail too:
- Chris Hipkins said Cabinet was “not fully informed early enough” about the scale of the seismic and infrastructure issues.
- Labour MPs said KiwiRail had mismanaged key parts of the project.
- They stated KiwiRail’s internal project governance was weak and not up to the standard expected for a multi-billion-dollar programme.
Given all of that, it’s hard to believe Labour would have simply carried on. The project was in deep trouble, Treasury was signalling red flags, and Labour clearly wanted to distance from KiwiRail’s handling of it.
To defend the project as it stood is to suggest that critics know better than Treasury’s analysts and the ministers who were already expressing concern. It was a mess — one Treasury was uncomfortable with, and one Labour was clearly preparing to walk away from.
Only those down left wing rabbit holes ignore all this…
Can supply sources but you can search it all yourself and those that followed it all, know this all to be true.