Predictions Market NRL 2026 - What round will Johnston break the try record?

[WahsaurusRex]

This is the discussion thread for the prediction market:

NRL 2026 - What round will Johnston break the try record?

Alex Johnston sits at 211 tries after Round 1. Trailing Ken Irvine by one.

In which round will Alex Johnston score his 213th try and break the try scoring record?

 

[Beastmode]

This thread title had me totally confused !

Shaun coming out of retirement ?????!!

 

[WAH MAN]

I thought he only needed one more so bought for this week. But the way Trellmy wouldn't share made me think they aren't going to pass it to him for the rest of the year.

 

[WarriorsNrlFanatics]

He will break the record against the Sydney Roosters

 

[FormerlyJamesW]

He will break the record against the Sydney Roosters

Well, don't jinx it!

 

[Canonball]

how well is the auditing going ?... see a lot of trades after the thing happened

 

[tajhay]

how well is the auditing going ?... see a lot of trades after the thing happened

That is the premise of prediction markets.

Theoretically by the time something has hit, or soon after the market for that result would be 100% which triggers an automatic close. Left the market open for 12 odd hours after event to give ample time as liquidity matters in sometging like this. But it seems like most people dont trade or understand markets well to use for their advantage.

There is never going to be a market that resolves right at the time of an event confirmed as occurring. 1) because there is no employee that monitors something like that. 2) because understanding how markets and more importantly leveraging works is a life skill that doesnt get taught enough.

 

[Canonball]

That is the premise of prediction markets.

Theoretically by the time something has hit, or soon after the market for that result would be 100% which triggers an automatic close. Left the market open for 12 odd hours after event to give ample time as liquidity matters in sometging like this. But it seems like most people dont trade or understand markets well to use for their advantage.

There is never going to be a market that resolves right at the time of an event confirmed as occurring. 1) because there is no employee that monitors something like that. 2) because understanding how markets and more importantly leveraging works is a life skill that doesnt get taught enough.

Fair enough on point 1 - but it changes the nature of the instrument once you know 100% something will happen: sort of transforms into a bond market, with an interest rate rate attached - again fair if you're playing with enough cash

 

[tajhay]

Fair enough on point 1 - but it changes the nature of the instrument once you know 100% something will happen: sort of transforms into a bond market, with an interest rate rate attached - again fair if you're playing with enough cash

In that case, shouldnt the reliable method to use to one's advantage be, to sell speculative positions on other markets, and get rewarded with guaranteed gain (even if it is 1-2%)? Very rarely did users put their entire 5k on one position in one market. Some markets dont resolve till later which end up giving less access to liquidity when needed, especially if positions were bought at early positions where %s were low.