Politics 🗳️ NZ Politics

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wizard of Tauranga said:
My point is fuel price is annoying but we’re talking ourselves into a recession.

We’ve had higher price during covid and the GFC and it goes back down again.

I’m seeing people like builders where fuel might rise $40pw on a turnover of several thousands per week saying they are going to have to increase prices. BS!

People panicking are walking us into higher inflation and an economic slump.

2022 we never talked about how many days of fuel left. It had much less media coverage and was more just part of overall inflation at about 7% under Labour, hitting everyone hard (inflation running at double now).
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Are you just forgetting the hundreds of dollars in fuel surcharges added to every delivery of timber/steel etc added to building costs? There wasn't a global shipping blockade to worry about in 2022 also.

Construction was already down 1.4% and GDP at 0.2%.. economy was on life support even before any tanker got struck in the Strait of Hormuz.

Building New Zealand: Focus on the construction industry | Stats NZ

This article uses statistics drawn from several Stats NZ datasets to provide insights into the recent performance of New Zealand's construction industry
www.stats.govt.nz www.stats.govt.nz
www.odt.co.nz

Another recession looming, economists warn

Kiwis are already feeling the expensive ripple effects of the war in Iran - and economists are warning that the real impact is only just beginning.
www.odt.co.nz www.odt.co.nz
 
Damo said:
There wasn't a global shipping blockade to worry about in 2022 also.
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Well the global shipping industry did ground to a halt over COVID!

Builders I’m talking about are discussing putting their prices because of the fuel not because of general price rises. Treasury has forecast a 3.7% general inflation figure due to this but if everyone starts ramping up prices because a minor part of your costs has an increase then it will start an inflation spiral (talking builders not freight companies).

50c extra on a $2.50 fuel expense is not major even for site delivery ($2000 materials, $30 ph driver costs, $10ph vehicle wear and tear, $10 base fuel cost… an extra 2ph in Iran fuel crisis fuel… truely insignificant. Ps Im a shareholder in an electrical contracting company and this extra fuel is totally insignificant in the scheme of running a business.

We are talking ourselves up into higher inflation and an economic slowdown that doesn’t need to happen.
 
wizard of Tauranga said:
Well the global shipping industry did ground to a halt over COVID!

Builders I’m talking about are discussing putting their prices because of the fuel not because of general price rises. Treasury has forecast a 3.7% general inflation figure due to this but if everyone starts ramping up prices because a minor part of your costs has an increase then it will start an inflation spiral (talking builders not freight companies).

50c extra on a $2.50 fuel expense is not major even for site delivery ($2000 materials, $30 ph driver costs, $10ph vehicle wear and tear, $10 base fuel cost… an extra 2ph in Iran fuel crisis fuel… truely insignificant. Ps Im a shareholder in an electrical contracting company and this extra fuel is totally insignificant in the scheme of running a business.

We are talking ourselves up into higher inflation and an economic slowdown that doesn’t need to happen.
Click to expand...
I do agree on psychological inflation being a problem however your math doesn't hold up when 91 octane jumped 80c per litre in less than 30 days.. For an electrician that’s a nuisance, but for a builder paying fuel surcharges on tonnes of timber and concrete, it’s a margin killer. We aren't only talking ourselves into a slump, construction activity fell 6.2% last year as well! The industry was already shrinking, and now the major banks are forecasting inflation to hit ~4% with all the recent bad news.

www.westpaciq.com.au

NZ forecast update, March 2026

We’ve revised our forecasts in response to disruptions stemming from the conflict in the Middle East. We now expect weaker GDP growth, higher unemployment and higher inflation over 2026.
www.westpaciq.com.au www.westpaciq.com.au
 
wizard of Tauranga said:
Heres a tip for beneficiaries. Stay at home or take public transport.

Think about the working poor that miss the $50 but have to pay a fortune to commute
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It should be obvious that increasing the fuel cost has a massive footprint, but apparently not.

As always, you're sorted and entitled and that's all that matters.

I'm not forgetting the fact that you're trolling, that's your pleasure clearly.
 
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MaybeTop8 said:
It should be obvious that increasing the fuel cost has a massive footprint, but apparently not.

As always, you're sorted and entitled and that's all that matters.

I'm not forgetting the fact that you're trolling, that's your pleasure clearly.
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C'mon MT8, we're all entitled, even you. Look at the world you live in. I know it must be a bugger getting to work but surely the rest of your life is ok.?

So, the model forecast is that GDP will be cut by 50% across the globe between 2070 and 2090.

Long time between drinks
 
Rick O’Shay said:
C'mon MT8, we're all entitled, even you. Look at the world you live in. I know it must be a bugger getting to work but surely the rest of your life is ok.?

So, the model forecast is that GDP will be cut by 50% across the globe between 2070 and 2090.

Long time between drinks
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Well, I was addressing the beneficiary bashing from a person gloating consistently about being sorted and constantly sounding like he belongs at the head of the ACT party. That's all really Rick.

As always, instead of having a go at me, you're welcome to address people who make antagonistic posts, like the one I was replying to.
 
Rick O’Shay said:
C'mon MT8, we're all entitled, even you. Look at the world you live in. I know it must be a bugger getting to work but surely the rest of your life is ok.?

So, the model forecast is that GDP will be cut by 50% across the globe between 2070 and 2090.

Long time between drinks
Click to expand...
I certainly am in a more privileged position than a large number of people in this world as are we all. That doesn't mean to say we should accept going backwards driven by the chaos generated by the right and the far right around the world. I'll repeat - this coalition - very right wing. USA? Hard right authoritarian.

A huge number of people I know are in real trouble, including close family and friends right now. We're not too far away either.

So yeah, comments like the poster I replied to made deserve a response.
 
MaybeTop8 said:
I certainly am in a more privileged position than a large number of people in this world as are we all. That doesn't mean to say we should accept going backwards driven by the chaos generated by the right and the far right around the world. I'll repeat - this coalition - very right wing. USA? Hard right authoritarian.

A huge number of people I know are in real trouble, including close family and friends right now. We're not too far away either.

So yeah, comments like the poster I replied to made deserve a response.
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Absolutely they do and being able to express an opinion is a fundamental right of democracy.

Everyone is doing it tough at the moment, even I'm sure Old mate Wiz. Not just fuel and energy costs but food and for some of us many hidden costs that the general public don't even think about.

Biggest concern here is not fuel, ok, it's expensive but still available.

Fertilizer on the other hand could be a bigger problem. As I posted earlier, Saudi produces most of our Urea. Price is like fuel, it is what it is. Availability on the other hand is a pressing problem that could cause some real grief in the months to come. Possibility of less production, less export, you know the drill and not just for us on a personal level. Seed supply, a lot of which comes from overseas could also be an issue in the near future.

A number of factors around which can and probably will affect the cost of living in the future months
 
Rick O’Shay said:
Absolutely they do and being able to express an opinion is a fundamental right of democracy.

Everyone is doing it tough at the moment, even I'm sure Old mate Wiz. Not just fuel and energy costs but food and for some of us many hidden costs that the general public don't even think about.

Biggest concern here is not fuel, ok, it's expensive but still available.

Fertilizer on the other hand could be a bigger problem. As I posted earlier, Saudi produces most of our Urea. Price is like fuel, it is what it is. Availability on the other hand is a pressing problem that could cause some real grief in the months to come. Possibility of less production, less export, you know the drill and not just for us on a personal level. Seed supply, a lot of which comes from overseas could also be an issue in the near future.

A number of factors around which can and probably will affect the cost of living in the future months
Click to expand...
Re fertilizer
Educate me Rick please - why the reliance on "powdered" fertilizer and not transitioning to liquid fertilizer

I know of a NZ company that manufactures an organic liquid fertilizer and sells it into the African market
 
Bay39er said:
Re fertilizer
Educate me Rick please - why the reliance on "powdered" fertilizer and not transitioning to liquid fertilizer

I know of a NZ company that manufactures an organic liquid fertilizer and sells it into the African market
Click to expand...
whats the $/T and the yield per acre compared to urea? I think you'll find the answers in there.
 
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Bay39er said:
Re fertilizer
Educate me Rick please - why the reliance on "powdered" fertilizer and not transitioning to liquid fertilizer

I know of a NZ company that manufactures an organic liquid fertilizer and sells it into the African market
Click to expand...
Good point. Simple answer is that urea or Nitrogen fertilizers are bigger, faster, stronger (short term) and you get more pasture growth quicker, often when you need it as in the back end of a dry spell like now.

Liquid fertilisers are good but take a while to stabilise. We spray the cowshed remains after milking onto paddocks in an attempt to get a balance. Been doing that for a few years and it has decreased slightly our dependence on powder. But as I said, the results are a lot slower.

I guess your client exports because most farmers here would do what we do and spray the shed remains onto paddocks
 
Anyone going to the national party fundraiser at the Christchurch town hall at $10,000 per ticket to enjoy the night with Luxon? You’d hope a very large portion of that is going towards charity
 
Noitall said:
Anyone going to the national party fundraiser at the Christchurch town hall at $10,000 per ticket to enjoy the night with Luxon? You’d hope a very large portion of that is going towards charity
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No mate but I am considering going to the morning tea in Tauranga with Sam Uffindell and Mahe Drysdale which would be really great fun don't you think
Only $10 what a steal . Sam would be such a hoot.
Nah just kidding 😂
 
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