General Introducing Predictions Market

Highlights Only

tajhay

💙💚❤️
🚩
Supporter
🎯 Introducing Prediction Markets - Put Your Rugby League Knowledge to the Test!

G'day Warriors fans!

We're excited to launch a brand new feature on the forum - Prediction Markets! It's a fun way to put your
rugby league knowledge on the line and compete against other members to see who really knows their stuff. Putting some initial markets out there so you guys can get a feel for things to test - It will be deleted later on before the season starts. This is to ensure everything is working fine.



What Are Prediction Markets?

Think of it like a stock market, but instead of trading company shares, you're trading on the outcomes of events
- like who'll win the Premiership, whether the Warriors will make the finals, or who takes out the Dally M.

Every member starts with $3,000 in virtual currency to trade with. Buy shares in outcomes you believe in,
sell when you change your mind, and watch your balance grow (or shrink!) based on your predictions.



How Does Trading Work?

Each outcome has a price between 1% and 99% - this represents what the market thinks the probability is of
that outcome happening.


  • Low price (e.g. 15%) = Market thinks it's unlikely, but bigger potential payout if you're right
  • High price (e.g. 75%) = Market thinks it's likely, smaller payout but safer bet

Example: If you buy Warriors shares at 18% and they end up winning, you make a nice profit! If you buy
Broncos at 67% and they win, you still profit - just not as much since they were already favourites.

The cool part? Prices move based on what everyone is trading. If heaps of people start buying Warriors shares,
the price goes up. It's a true reflection of what the community thinks will happen.



Trade Anytime - Don't Wait for the Final Result!

Here's where it gets interesting - you don't have to wait for an event to finish to make (or lose) money.
You can buy and sell shares at any time while the market is open.

Example scenario:

  1. You buy Warriors shares at 18% before the season starts
  2. Warriors start the season 5-0 and suddenly everyone believes they're a real chance
  3. The price rises to 35% as other traders pile in
  4. You sell your shares at 35% and pocket the profit - without waiting for the Grand Final!

This means you can:

  • Lock in profits early - Sold high? Nice work, the money is yours
  • Cut your losses - Bought a dud? Sell now before it gets worse
  • Trade the momentum - Ride the waves as opinions shift throughout the season
  • Buy the dip - Think the market overreacted to bad news? Swoop in at a discount

It's not just about predicting the final result - it's about reading the market and timing your trades!



The Main Pages

📊 All Markets
Browse all available prediction markets. Filter by category (NRL, Other Sports, Forum, etc.) and find markets
that interest you. Each market shows the current prices and trading activity.

💼 Your Portfolio
Your personal dashboard showing:

  • Your current balance
  • All your active positions (shares you own)
  • Your profit/loss on each position
  • Your trading history

🏆 Leaderboard
See how you stack up against other members! Rankings are based on total profit, trading volume, and accuracy. Can
you climb to the top and prove you're the ultimate predictor?

➕ Create Market
Got an idea for a prediction? Create your own market! Whether it's about an upcoming match, a season-long
prediction, or something completely random - if it's interesting, create it and let the community trade on it.



Quick Tips for New Traders


  1. Start small - Don't blow your whole balance on one trade. Spread it around!
  2. Buy low, sell high - If you think something is undervalued, buy in early
  3. You can sell anytime - Changed your mind? Sell your shares before the event resolves
  4. Watch the market - Prices tell you what the community thinks. Use that info!
  5. Think ahead - What news or results might move the price? Get in before the crowd
  6. Have fun - It's virtual currency, so take some risks and enjoy it



Ready to Get Started?

Head over to Prediction Markets and make your first trade!

We've already set up some markets for the 2026 NRL season including the Premiership winner, so get in early while
the prices are juicy.

If you have any questions, drop them in this thread. If you find any bugs or issues, post them in the associated thread. The whole purpose of these test markets is to stress test and get rid of any issues.

Thanks to @MrFrankWhite for the idea. Its been a blast doing this.
 

NZWarriors.com

After the tests are done, users will be able to create their own markets, for whatever they want whether it be a market on Rugby League, other sports, Politics 💀, Current Affairs, Novelty etc. Will provide info on that later.
 
Ok, I think I have my head around this.

So it's buying in to a an available option.

So if it's the Blues to win Origin and it's 80% yes and 20% no and you buy yes you are effectively buying shares at $0.80 each. If they win the first game it could change to 90% or $0.90 a share which you can cash in or continue on. If they do go on and win the series do you then get paid out $1.00 per share automatically?

If you buy blues to win and no further people trade or invest will the price remain at 80% or $0.80 regardless of results to date?
 

NZWarriors.com

Inruin said:
Ok, I think I have my head around this.

So it's buying in to a an available option.

So if it's the Blues to win Origin and it's 80% yes and 20% no and you buy yes you are effectively buying shares at $0.80 each. If they win the first game it could change to 90% or $0.90 a share which you can cash in or continue on. If they do go on and win the series do you then get paid out $1.00 per share automatically?

If you buy blues to win and no further people trade or invest will the price remain at 80% or $0.80 regardless of results to date?
Click to expand...
There is always a payout of $1 for every share you buy for the winning option.

So for example if you buy at 31%, for every share you bought (essentially 31 cents) you will get a dollar back.
You do not get anything for shares on options which lose.

Pretty important to keep that in mind.

So that is one way to make money.

The other way to make money is to cash out or sell your shares. Lets break it down.

I buy shares at say 50%. I put a shitload on and it jumps the new price to 55%.
Some others jump on and it brings the price to 70%.
I can then choose to dump my shares/or part of it and gain a lil bit of cash (difference between 50 -> 70%) per share.

Now lets give another example.

Say the market was on a Warriors game.
Options were :
Warriors 1-12
Warriors 13+
Dragons 1-12
Dragons 13+

Say score is Warriors 24-12 with 5 minutes to go.
If you have shares in Dragons to win (either 1-12, or 13+) and think they really can win it, you might as well get something for those in return even if its very little. Ideally you should sell as the chances of dragons winning 13+ at that point is basically 0. If the score is Warriors 36 Dragons 12, say on the last minute, even if the Warriors 13+ is paying 97% at that point, that provides value and essentially guarantees you a 3% gain, so you should buy.

Other people buying affects the price. Market is controlled by that. In essence this system is pretty educational and shows how the market really works, rather than the Bookie system we previously had. Go for value.

If you play, try to use up the entire 3000 provided to you. If you go below 100, a cash injection is provided every 24 hours so you can buy again.

Buy and Sell, play around, get a feel for how things work. See how your trades affect the prices etc. These are just test markets anyway so i can quash some bugs before everything is reset before its fully released (and give you guys the ability to create markets yourselves to quash forum disagreements :ROFLMAO:)
 
Ok so I bought $1000 for Warriors to miss top 4. That pushed the odds up and I'm $16 or so better off. Can I sell now and make $16 straight away?
 

NZWarriors.com

Inruin said:
Ok so I bought $1000 for Warriors to miss top 4. That pushed the odds up and I'm $16 or so better off. Can I sell now and make $16 straight away?
Click to expand...
No, because the algorithm is much smarter than that lol

When you goto buy shares, put in $100, $200, $500, $1000 etc and see what price it calculates things at. As in putting those values but not actually completing the trade. Itll show you the average price for the amounts. It goes higher as you put higher higher amounts.

Lets make a simple example:
There is a Market for Warriors to miss the top 4. For simplicities sake both options are 50% to start things off.
You make a $1000 bet, and it puts the price to 55%.
What happens behind the scenes is you bought some of your shares at 50%, some at 51%, some at 52%, some at 53% etc...as the probability jumped, so did your price for each share.

Same thing happens when you sell. If price is at 55% now, some will sell at 55%, some at 54% etc as the probability of that reduces due to the market at play.

You may inflate the market, but that market is on paper at that point, and not actual, and is impacted by the liquidity behind the scenes.

If you buy and inflate the price of an outcome, and try to sell, essentially you will go back to the same amount you had before. What you actually need is for others to buy heavily into your option and THEN sell when the % is even higher and lower liquidity available.
 
Inruin said:
And what happens to part shares. When you buy you can get say 10.99 shares but when you sell you can only sell 10. As the max.
Click to expand...
aaah bug. thats what the whole testing is supposed to find :)

If you want to sell part shares, you can use the Sell button that is under 'Your Positions' or via My Portfolio page. The Trade screen at the top of the market page has the issue which ill get fixed.
 

NZWarriors.com

You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom