General Tourism in NZ

[wizards rage]

After some feedback... I’m looking at setting up a tourism venture in Rotorua, which is due to open late next year once a development is completed. When we began this process we had come out of the first lockdown and the virus vaccine was mean to be available early next year and I was feeling confident. Since then we have had cases re-emerge locally, a second wave internationally and little significant news on the vaccine.

I’m after your thoughts:

1 - Do we think there will there be a vaccine available sometime next year?
2 - Do we think international travel will be back late next year? All or just a few countries?
3 - If travel is back do we think there will be a surge in pent up travel to NZ or will everyone still be reluctant to travel?
4 - Do you think there will be a long term impact on tourism - ie 5 years time we are back to normal or will there be a newfound reluctance to travel?

After a range of thoughts and views. We could survive with just domestic tourism in the short term but are setting up for international.

Appreciate any feedback

 

[Hardyman's Yugo]

Once the vaccine comes (next year is what we keep hearing) I think people will want to travel, there will be huge pent up demand in the system. The downside is the airlines are currently furloughed or going out of business, it may therefore take a while for planes to be flying in the numbers they were pre COVID. I’m assuming this means flight costs will increase.

Anyone still working at the end of all of this is likely to have money they want to spend, I’ve worked right through the various lockdowns and I’ve saved a lot

You‘re dealing with human behaviour mind so who knows, economists are only right after the event when they are trying to prove the theory of something that has already worked in practice.

 

[Dixpat]

1 - Do we think there will there be a vaccine available sometime next year? YES
2 - Do we think international travel will be back late next year? All or just a few countries? YES, all who have been vaccinated
3 - If travel is back do we think there will be a surge in pent up travel to NZ or will everyone still be reluctant to travel? Given our Covid response they will flock in
4 - Do you think there will be a long term impact on tourism - ie 5 years time we are back to normal or will there be a newfound reluctance to travel? A relatively quick recovery once international borders open with no need to quarantine