General The Value Of Stats

[fanrrior]

I don't get all these accusations that Mateo is getting. This year he has made more hitups, more offloads, and averages more metres per minute than every other player in our club. Yet some forum members here are calling him a lazy prick who is uninterested.

I get that he is badly out of form and we might be better off signing someone else based off of these results. I'm not denying that. But these claims that he is lazy are just bullshit imo.

*edit* Looking back, Matulino averages the most metres. Never mind that point I made about Mateo in that regard.

 

[¿N. ig-mah¿]

I don't get all these accusations that Mateo is getting. This year he has made more hitups, more offloads, and averages more metres per minute than every other player in our club. Yet some forum members here are calling him a lazy prick who is uninterested.

I get that he is badly out of form and we might be better off signing someone else based off of these results. I'm not denying that. But these claims that he is lazy are just bullshit imo.

Try watching the games instead of the stats pages. Clearly uninterested.

 

[bigstu]

I remember we did that against the Bunnies to steal the game on full time with a slow and unwanted Todd Byrne

I was actually at that bunnies game in Sydney... 17 seconds left and Witt kicked it for Skinny... It was awesome.[/quote]

was at the game too sitting with souths fans it was golden[DOUBLEPOST=1367477154][/DOUBLEPOST]

I don't get all these accusations that Mateo is getting. This year he has made more hitups, more offloads, and averages more metres per minute than every other player in our club. Yet some forum members here are calling him a lazy prick who is uninterested.

I get that he is badly out of form and we might be better off signing someone else based off of these results. I'm not denying that. But these claims that he is lazy are just bullshit imo.

hurrell, tupou, matulino all have more meters per game than mateo. how many of those offloads actually created anything? how many of his offload attempts caused a turnover?

 

[fanrrior]

Try watching the games instead of the stats pages. Clearly uninterested.

So your argument is that the statistics I provided are irrelevant, ergo my premise holds no weight, therefore my conclusion is false ,because of something subjective?

Very convincing [DOUBLEPOST=1367478288][/DOUBLEPOST]

hurrell, tupou, matulino all have more meters per game than mateo. how many of those offloads actually created anything? how many of his offload attempts caused a turnover?

Yeah, my bad. I misread Mateo for Matulino. That point is now negated.

Imo: Whether or not those offloads created anything or caused a turnover, have nothing to do with Mateo being interested or not.

 

[Inruin]

So your argument is that the statistics I provided are irrelevant, ergo my premise holds no weight, therefore my conclusion is false ,because of something subjective?

Very convincing [DOUBLEPOST=1367478288][/DOUBLEPOST]
.

no your conclusion is not wrong, but neither are the forumers you are disagreeing with. both are drawing conclusions from the data they have chosen to use. you are using stats on measurable outputs like offloads, hit ups, metres gained. they are using more subjective but no less relevant data.

 

[fanrrior]

I didn't say you were wrong, just that the stats on their own don't mean anything, particularly when you watch him play. He is not putting ni the effort we have seen in the past, regardless of what stats you use.

You did say I was wrong though. I said that accusations of Mateo being lazy/uninterested are bullshit. You then say that he is "clearly uninterested". This contradicts what I said and is therefore saying that I am wrong.

You also didn't specify that stats don't mean anything on their own. As your exact words were "try watching the game instead of the stats page". If you had intended to imply that they didn't mean anything on their own, perhaps "try watching the game instead of just the stats page" would have worked better.

How do you decide that he isn't putting in the effort we have seen in the past? Just for the heck of it lets see the stats anyway

According to Miket12's mid season stats for the warriors 2012:https://www.nzwarriors.com/threads/mid-seasons-stats-for-each-position.2014/
and according to mt.wellington's up to date stats:https://www.nzwarriors.com/threads/warriors-2013-stats.10589/page-6

Note

At the time Miket12's stats were posted, Mateo had played 618 minutes of Rugby League
So far Mateo has played 385 minutes of Rugby League

Mid-season 2012: Mateo ran 21.3 metres every 15 minutes.
2013: Mateo runs 23.7 metres every 15 minutes (Mateo runs 1.58 metres a minute. 1.58 metres X 15 minutes = 23.7 metres.)
That means he is currently average 2.4 metres more than he did at the beginning of last year.

Mid-season 2012: He averaged 1 offload every 51.5 /52 minutes. (12 total)
2013: He is so far averaging 1 offload every 22.6/23 minutes. (17 total)
That means he is averaging more than twice as much offloads as he did in the beginning of last year.

Mid-season 2012: Mateo made 38 hitups. Averaging 0.9 hitups per 15 minute block (38 divide 618, multiply 15)
2013: Mateo has so far made 82 hitups. Averaging 3 hitups per 15 minute block (17 divide 385, multiply 15)
That means he is averaging almost three times as much hit ups as he did at the beginning of last year.

Mid-season 2012: Mateo has missed a tackle every 22 minutes (28 total)
2013: Mateo is so far missing a tackle every 29 minutes (13 total)

The things Mateo has doing worse this year so far are: Errors, Linebreaks, Linebreak assists, Kick Returns, Tries and Try assists.

I didn't even need to calculate that since:

He has made the same amount of errors despite playing half as long.
He has yet to score a try or set one up.
He has yet to make a line break
He has only made one line break assist
He has yet to do a kick return.

In other words, Mateo has only been doing badly in the things that everybody expects him to do well. Thus giving off the illusion that he is uniterested/lazy when in reality he is just playing poorly instead. He has in fact been performing better in most other facets of the game. And therefore, judging from those stats he has actually been more interested / less lazy this year. But the magic just isn't coming.

 

[wallacenz]

The things Mateo has doing worse this year so far are: Errors, Linebreaks, Linebreak assists, Kick Returns, Tries and Try assists.

loss of maloney a contributing factor?, he seems to have a knack for turning up on a players shoulder for the offload, sbw is his man now

 

[Mr Frank White]

Being a fan of NFL I am surprised at the lack of interest in stats in NZ, rugby is nearly devoid of them. It's all based on subjective observations.

 

[fanrrior]

loss of maloney a contributing factor?, he seems to have a knack for turning up on a players shoulder for the offload, sbw is his man now

I think it would have to be. Mateo and Maloney was arguably the best combination we had at the time and yeah. One of Maloney's biggest strengths was his support play.

 

[eX | Machina]

Being a fan of NFL I am surprised at the lack of interest in stats in NZ, rugby is nearly devoid of them. It's all based on subjective observations.

Not for me. Stats are void of opinion or emotion I spend a lot of time looking at stats as it gives a very comprehensive insight into individual performances of players and how they compare to a benchmark.

 

[InsideBall]

Not for me. Stats are void of opinion or emotion I spend a lot of time looking at stats as it gives a very comprehensive insight into individual performances of players and how they compare to a benchmark.

Just on this, I find it really interesting that according to the NRL dreamteam scores (where points are attributed to each stat in the game, and with, in my opinion, a fairly accurate representation of the importance of each stat on the outcome of a game - eg linebreak = 4, tackle bust = 3, tackle = 1, missed tackle = -2, etc, etc) that Shaun Johnson is actually the second best performed half in the comp (behind only Cherry Evans) and the 9th best overall. Not bad.

 

[eX | Machina]

Just on this, I find it really interesting that according to the NRL dreamteam scores (where points are attributed to each stat in the game, and with, in my opinion, a fairly accurate representation of the importance of each stat on the outcome of a game - eg linebreak = 4, tackle bust = 3, tackle = 1, missed tackle = -2, etc, etc) that Shaun Johnson is actually the second best performed half in the comp (behind only Cherry Evans) and the 9th best overall. Not bad.

Absolutely, he's a shining light in an under performing team and yes as expected dreamteam stats are very accurate in regards to a players noticeably dominant performance on the field.

 

[fanrrior]

I don't look at the stats I just watch the games, more effort from him in defence is required, his effort in attack has improved. Stats never show what you don't bother to do, only what you do, try and fail at trying. IMO he is one of the few major defensive issues the warriors still have.

Yeah, fair enough. Statistics don't tell the whole story. However, they do help us see things that we often can't see on TV (and vice versa).

People on this forum have accused Mateo of being lazy or/and uninterested, in most cases, based only off of what they see on the tube/ at the stands. The problem I have with that is they are forming their accusations based solely off of their opinion. An opinion is unfalsifiable, subjective, and based upon a belief or personal view. But since it is subjective it can never be correct or incorrect and is therefore worth as much as anybody deems it to be.

 

[mode81]

Being a fan of NFL I am surprised at the lack of interest in stats in NZ, rugby is nearly devoid of them. It's all based on subjective observations.

Nah not really Mr Frank I'm a huge observer of rugby union only because I think it's easier to compare union players to league players then it is to compare AFL or NFL to league players , for me I simply don't understand AFL or NFL therefore I can never make a serious judgement as to how their athletes would go in league comps, league is a truly unique sport.

 

[gREVUS]

Yeah, fair enough. Statistics don't tell the whole story. However, they do help us see things that we often can't see on TV (and vice versa).

People on this forum have accused Mateo of being lazy or/and uninterested, in most cases, based only off of what they see on the tube/ at the stands. The problem I have with that is they are forming their accusations based solely off of their opinion. An opinion is unfalsifiable, subjective, and based upon a belief or personal view. But since it is subjective it can never be correct or incorrect and is therefore worth as much as anybody deems it to be.

I guess for stats to cover the part of his game that I find disappointing they would need to index how much time he spends getting back into the line, how much time between him starting to chase when a break has happened, and then the speed of that chase compared to others, and compared to the speed he makes while going forward with the ball in hand etc. All of which would be very hard to index in real world terms.

 

[¿N. ig-mah¿]

Yeah, fair enough. Statistics don't tell the whole story. However, they do help us see things that we often can't see on TV (and vice versa).

People on this forum have accused Mateo of being lazy or/and uninterested, in most cases, based only off of what they see on the tube/ at the stands. The problem I have with that is they are forming their accusations based solely off of their opinion. An opinion is unfalsifiable, subjective, and based upon a belief or personal view. But since it is subjective it can never be correct or incorrect and is therefore worth as much as anybody deems it to be.

A stat can alos be guided by opinion. An offload is an offload. But it doesn't take into account the outcome. If an offload is a hospital pass, it still bolsters his stats, thus making him appear one of the better offloaders, yet again. If it results in a linebreak, then it is a worthy stat. You have highlighted the fact that his linebreak assist stats are pathetic, and in my view that skews his stats to show he is not putting in, but simply going through the motions to pack out his offload stats.

yeah, yeah, now comes the subjectivity speech, but you won't convince me that a couple of numbers on paper prove he is working hard.

 

[Jay M]

I was actually at that bunnies game in Sydney... 17 seconds left and Witt kicked it for Skinny... It was awesome.

was at the game too sitting with souths fans it was golden[DOUBLEPOST=1367477154][/DOUBLEPOST]
[/quote]

Yeah I was sitting with Souths fans all around me as well... One lady (if I can call her that) was chanting in my ear all game *tries to imitate her and puts on his most southern drawl bogan voice* "Souff Seeed-ney"...

Good natured fans though - not like the Sharks...

 

[fanrrior]

A stat can alos be guided by opinion. An offload is an offload. But it doesn't take into account the outcome. If an offload is a hospital pass, it still bolsters his stats, thus making him appear one of the better offloaders, yet again. If it results in a linebreak, then it is a worthy stat. You have highlighted the fact that his linebreak assist stats are pathetic, and in my view that skews his stats to show he is not putting in, but simply going through the motions to pack out his offload stats.

yeah, yeah, now comes the subjectivity speech, but you won't convince me that a couple of numbers on paper prove he is working hard.

Then how exactly would I convince prove that he's working hard? Or what I was actually trying to do, how would I convince you that he is not uninterested or lazy.

So what will convince you?

You say that the statistics I posted won't convince you (fallacious, btw).

We both watch the same games and form our own opinion on Mateo based on what we perceive. Since your opinion, on it's own, is worth just as much as mine by itself, trying to convince someone as closed minded as you in that manner will bear little to no success.

The only way that I think I could possibly convince you is to twist your words/reasoning against you. But in doing that, It would only give the illusion that I convinced you (or vice versa) because we'll just end up arguing semantics like always, when I do this tactic.

So again, I ask, how could I convince you that Mateo isn't lazy or uninterested? And if I can't, why did you bother quoting my original post on the subject in the first place?

 

[¿N. ig-mah¿]

Then how exactly would I convince prove that he's working hard? Or what I was actually trying to do, how would I convince you that he is not uninterested or lazy.

So what will convince you?

You say that the statistics I posted won't convince you (fallacious, btw).

We both watch the same games and form our own opinion on Mateo based on what we perceive. Since your opinion, on it's own, is worth just as much as mine by itself, trying to convince someone as closed minded as you in that manner will bear little to no success.

The only way that I think I could possibly convince you is to twist your words/reasoning against you. But in doing that, It would only give the illusion that I convinced you (or vice versa) because we'll just end up arguing semantics like always, when I do this tactic.

So again, I ask, how could I convince you that Mateo isn't lazy or uninterested? And if I can't, why did you bother quoting my original post on the subject in the first place?

That seems to be an obsession you have. You think you can change a persons opinion by pointing out a grammatical or contextual error. It appears to me it makes you feel validated to try. You should spend more time in forums set up specifically to debate the English language, since you enjoy debating its use.

You can't change my opinion of whether or not Mateo is being lazy/uninterested. The only person who can do that is Mateo himself. And the only way he can do that is to up his game to the point where he is obviously putting in the hard yards, and not just making stats. Line break assists is a perfect stat to prove his work rate has lifted. Since an offload without a resulting line break can prove pointless (when no extra metres are made). When we see his line break numbers increase beyond 1 from 7 games, then I may be convinced. Since you can't actually do this, then you can't convince me.

I quoted your original post to point out that though the stats you highlighted could point to a high workload, they don't when you watch his game.

He has always been a lazy player with a low workrate but a phenominally good and well-timed offload but now the phenominal part is missing.

 

[OMG]

Then how exactly would I convince prove that he's working hard? Or what I was actually trying to do, how would I convince you that he is not uninterested or lazy.

So what will convince you?

You say that the statistics I posted won't convince you (fallacious, btw).

We both watch the same games and form our own opinion on Mateo based on what we perceive. Since your opinion, on it's own, is worth just as much as mine by itself, trying to convince someone as closed minded as you in that manner will bear little to no success.

The only way that I think I could possibly convince you is to twist your words/reasoning against you. But in doing that, It would only give the illusion that I convinced you (or vice versa) because we'll just end up arguing semantics like always, when I do this tactic.

So again, I ask, how could I convince you that Mateo isn't lazy or uninterested? And if I can't, why did you bother quoting my original post on the subject in the first place?

Mateo isn't lazy or disinterested, he is trying to put in regularly, the problem lies with structure change and intellect.
He is his own worst enemy, he doesn't play structured footy and likes to get the ball at first receiver, we have seen this year how woefully inadequate his timing can be when running off pivots, which is a massive issue when your a backrower because realistically the only forwards that should take hit ups straight off the dummy half are your Props. Mateo should be carving up halves taking the easy smart option.
One of our biggest issues as a team has been an inability to stick to structure, and a backrower taking a normal hit up instead of being where he should be is one the things that mucks up our structure especially with the expansive type we have been trying.